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Dartline™

 

December 27, 2006, 8:30am

The Standard & Poor's 500 index was up 6.15 or 0.44 percent, at 1,416.90. As indicated, the Dartmark is 1,410, and while that number holds the broader market remains bullish. Yesterday's rebound in light post-holiday trading only proves buyers came into the market after major indexes retreated last week were looking for bargains after three straight down sessions. Trading volume is light as many investors are on vacation, which tends to shew price moves and makes them appear more dramatic than they perhaps are. Bonds were little changed with 10-year bond flat at 4.60 percent and the dollar was mixed against major currencies; price of gold up.

... Purpose of the arrows: - projecting that DJIA, Nasdaq and S&P barometers will close higher at the end of the day. - projected consolidating barometers with limited directional action. - projecting all three barometers declining for the days. .... Our Message Board and "Contact Us" elements are available at no cost to keep you up-to-date with timely information. Our Fantasy Hedge Fund gives you a concise overview of how investment ideas are executed. All transactions are posted on the Message Board. ... Effective 12.18.06, the Message Board will no longer carry confirmations of posted suggestions and investment idea as a means to place "time sensitive" commentaries at the point on entry under Best Idea, Day Trade or 60-Day Summary list. In this manner, a more precise notice can be offered and improve the decision making process of our members and viewers. Furthermore, if a detail analysis is requested after the fact, merely post your question on the Message Board and an overview will be presented after the close.

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Prior Dartline summaries .....December 26, 2006 , 10:35am ... At 1,414.11 the S&P 500 is maintaining support. Excellent sign to establish base under market. However, remain defensive. ... 8:30am ...With the Standard & Poor's 500 index down 7.54 on Friday to close at 1,410.76, today's action will be critical to determine the near tem direction of the market. The next major test is 1,400 and if occurs within this short week, the events may have a significant downside effect on the market. For last week, the S&P slipped 1.14 percent which represents a troubling sign, especially went distribution increased within a higher volume trading environment Such distribution patterns in a down market as in prior week suggests further weakness going forward. The event by itself has little consequence unless a breakdown of 1400 takes place. At that point, a major sell signal will be in play and for investors to materially reduce long side exposure by taking profits across the board and reducing position in any lagging equities. Use the current short week as a time to pause and reflect on what the equity market is telling us.

 

 
View From the Bottom - A roundup of the day's performance

December 27, 2006, 4:00pm. ... Day Trader losses for the day are $7,800.00. ... Adjustments to the 60-Day Summary, which does not include Day Trader's activities are: (1) sold FOXH for a gain of $17,000.00; (2) sold CMHG for a gain of $11,400.00. Net realized changes for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio ("SFHF") is a gain of $20,600.00, and for the month to date a profit of $319,320.00.

December 27, 2006, 4:20pm ... Why not average down on Bio-Reference Labs like you usually do when a stock goes the wrong way after posting?*** ... If a stock presents certain issues to suggest long or short classification, and the market goes contra to the projection, the underlying values do not change, and therefore adding to the position makes sense. As for BRLI, it was originally offered long at $25.20 on 12.15.06 and again at $23.53 on 12.19.06. Today, BRLI was $1.04 to close at $23.00. When posted on the 15th, it was based on superior earnings and guidance, but BRLI declined. Thus, a further long was suggested, only to find the stock fall again. Even though BRLI had value, it was prudent to step-back and access the decisions, and allow whatever level of liquidation to concluded. Indeed, the run-up today was not anticipated. Such event is not new, but to remain vigilant, a third undertaking on the long side was not justified since the original reason for the decline was still unknown. As a midterm buy, BRLI has value and in time the position would prove profitable.

December 22, 2006, 4:00pm ... Why carry a huge short position loss in Pozen Inc.?... As you may have determined SFHF is carrying an abnormally large unrealized loss, which most of it is connected with the 100,000 share short position in Pozen Inc. (PZN). The average cost is $16.55 while POZN closed at $17.71, representing a loss of $116,400.00. The POZN short position was accumulated on the strong possibility that the FDA will require new clinical trials for its proposed medication Trexima before approval to market. Glaxo SmithKline, the co-development partner and recognized to be a savvy drug firm, had walked away from Trexima and suggests the uphill fight to cut losses and the approval process for Trexima may take years. If new data is required for FDA approval, the only means will be with new trials. Such a scenario would drop POZN to the $ 9 range. Naturally, the risks are plausible if approval is given, yet the likelihood appears less than probable.

*** from the e-mail bag.

 
 
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best idea

... December 27, 2006

... 10:09am ... BUY Aeterna Zentaris (AEZS) - last $4.01. Distribution of Atrium Biotech. 0.2079 shares for each AEZS with record date 12.29.06 is worth $2.00 by itself. With the morning's sell off, AEZS is cheap.

December 26, 2006, 3:40pm. ...BUY Psivida Ltd. (PSDV) - last $1.88. PSDV offers a novel porous form of nano-sized silicon for therapeutic and diagnostic use in healthcare. The drug delivery technology has wide application and with a pending licensing agreement may enhance long term value. The announcement payment of $900,000.00 just to negotiate an exclusive licence underscores the potential. Fundamentals, PSDV has adequate working capital and management depth to execute its business plan. PSDV is a suggested midterm BUY with EXIT POINT at $4.50.

December 22, 2006... 10:42am ... BUY PNCL - last $16.05. Add to position.... 10:35am ... price change on MESA to $7.87 from $7.90.... 10:09am .. BUY Mesa Air Group (MESA) - last $7.90. Deal with Shenzen Airlines with gave MESA a major presence in China. Excellent growth prospect with limited risk. EXIT POINT determined at $16.50 in long term. MESA can be a core holding for 2007.... 9:57am ... BUY Pinnacle Airlines (PNCL) - last $16.88. Even with six point run up, PNCL is worth $25 with Northwest Airline deal. and $377.5 million claim to be paid. ... 9:27am ... BUY Chipotile Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) - last $55.14. Based on excellent fundamentals and forward earnings growth. EXHIT POINT $65.00 in near term.

December 21, 2006.... 3:23pm ... BUY On Assignment Inc. (ASGN) - last $11.04 Selling at 28 times forward earnings without acquisition of privately held Vista Staffing Solutions will add $0.10 to future earnings, ASGN us undervalued. With 26.14 million shares outstanding, while insiders and institutions controlling 95%, the true float can prove beneficial as earnings improve. Mid-term value play with EXIT POINT at 16.75.... 10:48am ... Add to position - SHORT Pozen Inc (POZN). - last $17.59. FDA will require additional clinical trials.... 10:27am ... COVER SHORT ON BBBY - last $38.10. Take profit. Under limited accumulation to warrant closing out position.

December 18, 2006... 2;12pm ... SHORT Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (BBBY) - $40.80. With quarterly earnings due on 20th of December, estimates are $0.52 vs. $0.45 . Earnings surprise on downside likely that will place pressure on stock value. With stock near resistance and sales weakness going forward in moderating economy, BBY will have trouble maintain forward projections. No an effective environment to warrant holding, and a near term SHORT is prudent.

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.. December 27, 2006.

2:44pm.... BUY Nucryst Pharmaceuticals Corporation (NCST) - last $5.40. NCST develops and manufactures nano-enhanced wound management products and announced in early November of the failure to show efficacy in Phase 2 clinical trial of a topical cream to treat atopic dermatitis. That news downed the stock from $16.88 to $6.11. However, the trail was clouded by the placebo confirm an efficacy of 35%, an anomaly since placebo working on average is 7%. The company said by year end a decision will be made to continue testing. Meanwhile, its nanocrystalline silver product packaged as Silcryst is a widely used dressing for serious wounds and burns, and created the necessary cash flow to insure long term success for NCST. With sound financials and high level management, NSCT is a perfect candidate for midterm growth or a takeover. BUY with no EXIT POINT determined.

Ticker
Last Trade
Direction
Entrance Point
Exit Point
NCST
December 27, 2006
5.40
*


P/E Ratio: *
Forward P/E Ratio: *
Float Shares2: 18.30 M
Company Guidance: *
Recommendation3: downgrade to hold by Canaccord Adams
Support4: 3.95
Resistance5:

8.40
Under Accumulation6: limited
Under Distribution7: limited

 
today's action

... DAY TRADER

December 27, 2006

... 1:59pm .. SELL ENTER POSITION on ESCL - last $7.80.. Not working, under downside pressure. Take loss.

.. 1:45pm ... BUY #2 on ESCL - last $7.86. Dollar averaging down.

.. 1:26pm ... SELL NVDA - last $37.57. Failed to respond to up volume.

.. 9:49am ... BUY Escala Group Inc. (ESCL) - last $8.55. Interesting buying patterns suggest higher values.

... 9:39am ...BUY Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) - last $37.54. Under accumulation to test $38.50.

December 26, 2006... 10:55am ... COVER SHORT ON VNDA - last $25.11..... 10:51am... COVER SHORT ON ITMN - last $30.10... 9:59am ... SELL TELK - last 5.05. TELK cannot sustain buying interest. Can trade to cash value at $2.90.9:52am ...SHORT Vanda Pharma (VNDA) - last $25.25.. Unable to maintain advance, can pullback to $24.25.... 9:45am ... SHORT Intermune Inc. (ITMN) - last $30.50 Under distribution after run-up.9:30am ... BUY Telik Inc. (TELK) - pre-market $4.65. (opened at $4.82) After 11+ point decline from Friday's close of $16.25 and 35% short position against float, TELK may have a perfect "dead cat" bounce" after disappointing cancer drug trials.

December 22, 2006... 1:53pm ... Transfer SHORT on RHT to 60-day Summary list. ... 11:11am ... SELL ESCL - last $9.05. Failed to gain support. 10:45am ... BUY Escala Group Inc. (ESCL) - last $8.86. Beginning of steady accumulation.... 10.14am ... SHORT #2 ON RHT - last 21.21. Cannot sustain upside with declining volume... 9:42am ... COVER SHORT ON RHT - last $20.70 Volume on upside stronger than anticipated..... 9:34am ... SHORT Red Hat Inc. (RHT) - last $20.90. Over priced and technical weak at this level.

December 21, 2006 ... 3:48pm ... SELL RHT - last $18.10.... 1:33pm ... BUY Red Hat Inc, (RHT) - last $18.06. Support has been established with early accumulation. ... 10:37am . SELL IAAC - Last $35.602. Take profit. IACC failed to rally off day's support. 10:13am .. BUY International Asset Holding (IAAC) - last $33.90 . Under accumulation after 13+ point decline.

 

... From the 60-Day Summary list

.. December 27, 2006

... 10:47am ... SELL Foxhollow Tech. (FOXH) - last $22.04 Originally suggested at $21.19 on 12.20.06. Take profit.

... 10:20am ... SELL Chipotle Mex. Grill (CMG) - last $56.28. Originally suggested at $55.14 on 12.22.06. Take profit based on abnormal trading pattern and inability to break from upside resistance.

December 26, 2006, 8:30am. No action.

December 22, 2006, 8:30am. No action.

December 21, 2006... 11:28am ... COVER SHORT ON FOXH - last $21.79. Take loss.... 9:39am ... SELL Anika Therapeutic (ANIK) - last $14.20. Volume failed to confirm news. Take Profit.

_________________________________________

 

NET VALUE OF Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund (SFHF) portfolio for the week ending 12.15.06 ....................,....... . $4,105,706.00

REALIZEDGAINS (LOSSES) FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ........................ ......... $277,601.00

REALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio. ...............................$338,049.00

REALIZEDGAINS (LOSSES) FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER '06 TO DATE in the SFHF portfolio .................. $319,320.00

REALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) FOR THE CURRENT WEEK TO DATE in the SFHF portfolio. ................... $049,000.00

UNREALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) in the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio.

December 27, 2006, 400pm ... 63,800.01

December 26, 2006, 4:00pm .. 97,639.00

December 22, 2006, 4:00pm ...154,899.97

December 21.006, 4:00pm .... 110,119.96

December 20, 2006, 4:00pm .... 93,267.97

December 19, 2006, 4:00pm .....55,300.01

December 18, 2006, 4:00pm .....01,795.03

December 15, 2006, 4:00pm .... 25,740.01

December 14, 2006, 4:00pm .... 99,164.01

December 13, 2006, 4:00pm ..136,899.98

December 12, 2006, 4:00pm .....03,700.00

December 11, 2006, 4:00pm ....64,200.00

December 8, 2006, 4:00pm ...... 24,399.99

December 7, 2006, 4:00pm ...... 23,694.99

December 6, 2006, 4:00pm ...... 11,465.97

December 5, 2006, 4:00pm ......$82,400.01

December 4, 2006, 4:00pm ..... $58,400.01

 

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EFFECTIVE 10.30.06 DAY TRADER WILL BE LAUNCHED TO TARGET ONE STOCK TO PLAY DURING THE DAY AND CLOSED OUT BEFORE 4:00pm. The intent is to suggest ideas that have a likelihood, either to advance or decline, depending it you're going long or short. Naturally, day trading should only be considered by individuals with an in depth language of the securities market, and understands experience and timing dynamics are intransigent parts of the same formula. As Mark Twain said, "We should be careful to get out of an experience only the wisdom that is in it - and stop there; lest we be like the cat that sits down on a hot stove. The cat will never sit down on a hot stove again - and that is well; but also the cat will never sit down on a cold one any more."... Practice by using phantom trades until you have the experience to go live. This way you'll learn first hand if you posses that special "hook" to be a successful day trader.

 

 

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Remember: knowledge can be communicated; wisdom is your department.


 

 
 

BEAT THE DART is a classic term originally applied in 1898 when J.P. Morgan threw a dart at the stock table page of the New York Times. Whatever the dart hot, he purchased the stock and made a fortune. In time others used the procedure with startling results. The dart picks beat professional analysts 65% of the time!
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1 Based on market conditions and other factors previewed in Best Ideas, changes can happen at any time. Accordingly, continue to log-in on a regular basis to maintain maximum performance.
2 Float - Available stock position in the hands of the general public of the total outstanding.
3 Institutional recommendations during the last 30 days.
4 Under technical analysis the term 'support' refers to a point in the stock's price that is immediately maintained and usually suggests an entrance point to purchase.
5 Under technical analysis the term 'resistance' suggests that a point in the stock's price has been reached and further gains are temporarily unlikely.
6 Under Accumulation occurs when abnormal buying in a particular stock takes place, and suggests that inside information may be at play and anticipates future price appreciation.
7 Under Distribution suggests that insiders and others are stealth fully selling on the belief that lower stock prices will occur.
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