Beat The Dart -"Picking Stocks the Old-fashioned Way"

.... Hope your holidays are happy days. ... God's plan made a hopeful beginning, but man spoiled his chance by sinning. We trust that the story will end in God's gory, but at present, the other side's winning.

With low volume and the holidays quickly approaching no one wants to trade the stuff, so the pullback is only a footnote. The Standard & Poor's 500 index dipped 5.23 or 0.37 percent to 1,418.30. As indicated, 1,410 remains support with resistance at 1,431.63. Bonds rose shapely with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note falling to 4.55 percent from 4.60 percent late Wednesday on soft economic data as the Federal Reserve's December business index, which gauges regional manufacturing activity, came in at a negative 4.3 (weakest showing since 2003) compared with a positive number of 5.1 in November. The dollar was lower against other major currencies, while gold prices fell. Light, sweet crude oil fell $1.06 to $62.66. Since limited focus was given to the various indicators, nothing can be made from their collective and confused action. ... Going forward, the U.S. dollar remains a troublesome issue. (read 'What's your take on the weak dollar and how do you play it?' Message Board under The Dart Bin, 12.10.06.) Any further decline against foreign currencies would damage the delicate balance that has insure positive money flow into U.S. based equities. To prevent the dollar doesn't drop into a tailspin, comments from Jeffrey M. Lacker, Richmond Federal Reserve President, said yesterday at a speech in Charlotte, N. C., "The risk that core inflation surges again, or does not subside as desired, clearly remains the predominant macroeconomic policy risk." In other words, don't worry international community, we will support the dollar by raising interest rates. Never happen in the foreseeable future. Just a spin to keep the international money managers occupied. For now, go with the flow and prudently use the next ten trading days to position your portfolio for more sideways action until the first quarter shakedown works through the system. Naturally, the S&P 500 must remain above 1,410 in this period in order to keep selling pressure from infecting the general market. Let's repeat: With the market closes out the year, the agenda is to carefully consider any new long side commitments, while weeding out stocks with questionable forward earnings.

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