Beat The Dart -"Picking Stocks the Old-fashioned Way"

The S&P fell 4.61 or 0.32 percent to 1,422.48 and for the first time in four sessions; bonds rose with the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note falling to 4.59 percent from 4.60 percent late Friday; oil prices fell after rallying last week when it was announced inventories were lower than expected. A barrel of light sweet crude fell $1.22 to $62.21 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The dollar was mixed against other major currencies, while gold prices were off. As indicated on Monday, "Now is the time to step back and not be too aggressive in adding long positions. At 1,427.09 for the S&P 500 index with Friday's range of 1425.48 - 1431.63 the upside appears limited to that range while the likelihood for declines are greater." With the top line set and the bottom line at 1,410, the broader market has established a "comfort zone." However, a breakdown on the downside below 1,410 is more problematic at this stage since the economic data is bearish. The huge U.S. currency account deficit widened in the third quarter to a record $225.6 billion, as higher oil prices and strong demand for Chinese and other foreign goods pushed imports up. Since the current account is the broadest measure of U.S. trade with the rest of the world, the huge U.S. deficit is viewed as one of major risks to the world economy, along with surpluses in Asian and oil-exporting countries. ... With intermediate and long term U.S. government bond prices edged up after a December housing index drop challenged the view that the housing market, which has weakened, was stabilizing. Yet, the market's consolidation of recent gains in light volume is an encouraging sign and indicates that our suggested trading range of the S&P may hold into '07. As the market backs and fill, any new long side commitment should be carefully considered, and focus on weeding out less than stellar equities by reducing exposure to non-performers.

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