Beat The Dart -"Picking Stocks the Old-fashioned Way"

Now what? (1) set the S&P 500 index to the new support line at 1,410. (2) the price of Crude oil as quoted by the New York Mercantile Exchange must remain below $69 a barrel. (3) The benchmark 10-year Treasury note must remain below 5.01% (4) The U.S. dollar must remain above 115 Japanese yen. - Anyone two of these barometers are violated, the U.S. equity market will be considered "overbought" and time to liquidate less than stellar stocks. In the intern, the equity markets going forward will be very selective, and be considered "special situation" commitments. ... Watching economic reports to gauge the future course of interest rates in the new year is the only prudent game in town. While some analysts were predicting cuts in the first half of next year, the Fed is not likely to ease credit if the economy proves to be expanding at a moderate rate. Indeed, higher interest rates support a currency by making assets denominated in the currency more attractive to investors. By the Fed keep interest at the 5.25% rate, a signal was sent that the U.S. dollar is being defended. That fact alone has cause the advance above 1400 in the S&P 500 to be sustainable. ... The index of Industrial Production will be issued at 9:15 ET by the Fed. This index is a fixed-weight measure of the physical output of the nation's factories, mines and utilities. Manufacturing production, the largest component of the total, can be accurately predicted using manufacturing hours worked from employment reports. Look for a moderate increase in production . However, the wildcard will be utility production because the weather in general has not been driven by unusual heating/cooling needs to accelerated production. Reviewed in its totality, the IP index will give the general stock market enough fuel to warrant further advances. Look for good number to give the market more rocket fuel. ... Use today to assess your portfolio and continually reduce non-performing issues, add positions with acceptable forward earnings and retain laggards if "special situations" warrant holding. ... Even though the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund (SFHF) has performed adequately in the last 90-day with a weight average return on investment capital less margin of 32.74%, three positions are deemed "special situations" that have sustained substantial unrealized losses: (1) Long on Scottish Re Group (SCT), (2) Long on Anika Therapeutics (ANIK) and (3) Short on Pozen Inc.(POZN). As indicated in our commentaries and remarks posted on our Message Board the reasons are self explanatory and need not be repeated. However, since our long term horizon has been established for the SFHF, the policy is to average down on these positions when conditions warrant to capture the full value of the holdings. Using our proprietary subjective probability formulas and other means to evaluate these investments, Stocksmirf believes they are still within acceptable values to warrant retaining the positions and to further enhance the commitments. Naturally, if events change the decision to hold these positions will also change.

... The STOCKSMIRF Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio supports total available cash and margin of $5,000,000. Based on the trading dynamics of the Fund to date the gross values committed had not exceeded $4,500,000.

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