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December 11, 2006, 8;30am

Monday will begin in a wait-and-see mood. Wall Street wants employment to remain strong so consumers feel emboldened to keep spending through the holidays but also doesn't want wages to rise too quickly and make inflation-wary Fed less likely to eventually cut short-term interest rates. See, even Wall Street wants the perfect holiday present. But the stock market doesn't work that way. Naturally, if it did, everything an investor touches would turn to gold. ... The Federal Open Market Committee convenes on Tuesday and consensus suggests that the Fed will keep interest rates at 5.25 percent. Even so, nothing usually happen until the FOMC's statements are dissected into balderdash commentaries on how the U.S. central bank sees the economy. Indeed, caution may linger until Friday's data on the U.S. Consumer Price Index for November. The key note is whether inflation is mediating, and mild enough to keep Americans spending, while driving U.S. economic growth. Right now, it's a coin flip and a waste of time to ponder. Since the economy can go either way, especially with the dollar working lower, oil prices on the rise , the huge balance of payment deficient, the billions wasted in Iraq, the grill lock with Congress and whatever will happen in '07.. At 1,409.84 as Friday's closing price for the S&P 500 Index with a range of 1403.67 to 1414.09 should be the extent of upside resistance, while a decline below 11403 would suggest weaker values.

.... "Send Your Picks For Stock Contest .... There's one week left to enter Sunday's Journal's next Investment Dartboard contest. We'll randomly pick six readers that we choose by tossing darts at the listings in the paper. The reader whose stock does best for the six months through June 2007 wins a Sunday Journal toe bag and lifetime bragging rights. The new contest lineup will be announced Sunday, January 7. The rules: - Choose just one stock from the NYSE or Nasdaq markets and send your choice via email to sundaydartboard@wsj.com by midnight December 17, 2006. No entries will be accepted by regular mail. - Include your name, address, daytime phone number, email address and the name of the local paper where you read Sunday Journal. Brokers and other investment professionals can't complete. Neither can former Dartboard contestants. - You must be willing to be interviewed. "

... Purpose of the arrows: - projecting that DJIA, Nasdaq and S&P barometers will close higher at the end of the day. - projected consolidating barometers with limited directional action. - projecting all three barometers declining for the day.

... BEAT THE DART announces modification to the STOCKSMIRF Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio by changing the total available cash and margin to $5,000,000 from $50,000,000.00. Based on the trading dynamics of the Fund to date the gross values committed had not exceeded $3,000,000. Therefore, to carry excessive "buying power" distorted the percentage gains (losses) on the performance of the fund.

... BEAT THE DART announces new features: ... Our Message Board and "Contact Us" elements are available at no cost to keep you up-to-date with timely information. Our Fantasy Hedge Fund gives you a concise overview of how investment ideas are executed. All transactions are posted on the Message Board

 
View From the Bottom - A roundup of the day's performance

December 11, 2006, 4:00pm. ... Day Trader gain for the day was $6,900.00. ... Adjustments to the 60-Day Summary, which does not include Day Trader's activities are: (1) zero. Net changes for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio ("SFHF") is a gain of $6,900.00, and for the month to date a profit of $139,000.00. Decisions for all these "transactions" are re-viewable from the Today's Action column, Message Board or the actual time sensitive commentaries notes: On the Message Board the time allocation is based on Mountain Time. If you need further analysis please go to the Message Board and click "The Dart Bin." No charge of any of our features or services offered. ... Indeed, our performance looks too good to be true, but when reviewed by dates and time stamps frozen on the Message Board at the moment of netcasting, you'll see each event has been properly recorded. For a further analysis, the actual individual trade prices (intra-day ticks) are available from other sources. As for the other picks that had sufficient lead-time, nothing more can be said. The mission of Beat the Dart is to remove all the hocus-pocus and make you rich. ... When reviewing past commentaries and the decision process use archive index on our home page and the Message Board to gain the understanding and mind set behind our philosophy.
 
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best idea

December 11, 2006 ... 3:37pm ... ADD TO POSITION - BUY Scottish Re Group (SCT) - last $5.46. Oversold based on valuation.

... 11:33am ... BUY Tektronix Inc. (TEK) - last 30.57. TEK manufactures and markets test measurement and monitoring solutions worldwide. Excellent fundamentals with forward P/E to May '08 of 16 times earnings. On a technical basis TEK is under accumulation with support at $28.90 and near term resistance at $31.50. A move above $31.50 with volume would create further buying interest for a test of 52-week high of $36.96. No EXIT POINT determined.

... 8:30am ... BUY LivePerson Inc. (LPSN) - last $4.65. LPSN provides online conversion solutions via its integrated multi channel communications platform. Its live chat deployments in the higher education section will accelerated sales and profits. With over 200 colleges and universities in its network, LPSN offers easy-to-implement, secure and convenient means to communicate with students. Unlike email, chats are initiated by students at the moment they need help. Most students who have used LivePerson indicate a preference for chat over both the telephone and office visits. With a strong balance sheet, improving cash flow and well-executed business plan, LPSN represents a midterm speculative BUY. EXIT POINT suggested at $7.50.

 

Ticker
Last Trade
Direction
Entrance Point
Exit Point
LPSN
December11, 2006
$4.65
$7.50


P/E Ratio: 93
Forward P/E Ratio: 24
Float Shares2: 33.9 M
Company Guidance: 0.12 v 0.06 (dec year '06) . 0.20 v 0.17 ( dec. year '07)
Recommendation3: upgrade to buy by Roth capital
Support4: 3.90
Resistance5: 5.25
Under Accumulation6: limited
Under Distribution7: limited

 
today's action

... DAY TRADER

... December 11, 2006 .

... 3:01pm ... COVER SHORT ON EFUT - last $40.50.

... 1:39pm .... Transfer NUVO to the 60-Day Summary list. NUVO remains under passive accumulation and warrants a midterm hold. With a liquid book value near current price and other products in pipeline, NOVO is considered a value risk. Based on current performance a run to $4.50 for today is unlikely, but remain a short term possibility.

... 11:55am. SHORT E-Future Information (EFUT) - last $41.19. Under selling pressure.

... 11:42am. BUY Nuvelo Inc. (NUVO) - last $3.85. After dropping 15.68. BUY has found support and sustained buying interest. Run to $4.50 likely.

 

... From the 60-Day Summary list

.... December 11, 2006, 8:30am ... no action.

._____________________________________________________________________

 

NET VALUE OF Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund (SFHF) portfolio for the week ending 12.08.06 ....................,....... . $4,632,000.00

REALIZEDGAINS (LOSSES) FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ........................ ......... $277,601.00

REALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio. ...............................$338,049.00

REALIZEDGAINS (LOSSES) FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER '06 TO DATE in the SFHF portfolio ................... $139,000.00

REALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) FOR THE CURRENT WEEK TO DATE in the SFHF portfolio. ....................$006,900.00

UNREALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) in the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio.

December 11, 2006, 4:00pm ...64,200.00

December 8, 2006, 4:00pm .... 24,399.99

December 7, 2006, 4:00pm ..... 23,694.99

December 6, 2006, 4:00pm ..... 11,465.97

December 5, 2006, 4:00pm .....$82,400.01

December 4, 2006, 4:00pm .... $58,400.01

December 1, 2006, 4:00pm .... $12,004.99

November 30, 2006, 4:00pm ... $69,300.00

November 29, 2006, 4:00pm ... $36,700.08

November 28, 2006, 4:00pm ... $47,500.07

November 27, 2006, 4:00pm ... $32,994.17

November 24, 2006, 4:00pm ... $60,699.95

 

.......Note: Changes will be instantly broadcast on our Message Board. Log-in, it's free.

EFFECTIVE 10.30.06 DAY TRADER WILL BE LAUNCHED TO TARGET ONE STOCK TO PLAY DURING THE DAY AND CLOSED OUT BEFORE 4:00pm. The intent is to suggest ideas that have a likelihood, either to advance or decline, depending it you're going long or short. Naturally, day trading should only be considered by individuals with an in depth language of the securities market, and understands experience and timing dynamics are intransigent parts of the same formula. As Mark Twain said, "We should be careful to get out of an experience only the wisdom that is in it - and stop there; lest we be like the cat that sits down on a hot stove. The cat will never sit down on a hot stove again - and that is well; but also the cat will never sit down on a cold one any more."... Practice by using phantom trades until you have the experience to go live. This way you'll learn first hand if you posses that special "hook" to be a successful day trader.

 

 

BeatTheDart.com offers a quick guide to update all commentaries relating to entrance and exit points. Now you are able to quickly bring into focus events that affected your investment resources. Use this important tool when considering asset redeployment or to modify capital decisions. Indeed, most investments are sensitive to timing, and accordingly many unforeseen developments can have a direct correlation to profits or losses. BeatTheDart.com will attempt to access events using avail bale information and our database. Since BeatTheDart.com relies on pattern recognition systems and probabilistic averages, all new information has a direct relationship to what has been previously reported. Thus , the information is only unique at the moment retrieved. The objective is to update, refine and present known facts that may have been deleted or unknown at an earlier date. The intent is simple..BeatTheDart.com does not report history and attempts to accurately access the present as it relates to the future. Events and circumstances are considered based on the most likely conclusions from a given set of fact and probability theory. BeatTheDart.com does not profess to be analysts, prophets or Wall Street wizards. Most stock recommendations of others have hidden agendas and reasons unrelated to the best interests of the recipient. BeatTheDart.com uses all available facts and are merely summarized from a common sense perspective. Emotional factors and unrelated circumstances are removed from the equation, making the reporting unbiased. The philosophy behind the web text is to accumulate available evidence, present it in a simple format, and offer it for you to judge; to assess and most assuredly to use prudence and with sound judgment .
Remember: knowledge can be communicated; wisdom is your department.


 

 
 

BEAT THE DART is a classic term originally applied in 1898 when J.P. Morgan threw a dart at the stock table page of the New York Times. Whatever the dart hot, he purchased the stock and made a fortune. In time others used the procedure with startling results. The dart picks beat professional analysts 65% of the time!
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1 Based on market conditions and other factors previewed in Best Ideas, changes can happen at any time. Accordingly, continue to log-in on a regular basis to maintain maximum performance.
2 Float - Available stock position in the hands of the general public of the total outstanding.
3 Institutional recommendations during the last 30 days.
4 Under technical analysis the term 'support' refers to a point in the stock's price that is immediately maintained and usually suggests an entrance point to purchase.
5 Under technical analysis the term 'resistance' suggests that a point in the stock's price has been reached and further gains are temporarily unlikely.
6 Under Accumulation occurs when abnormal buying in a particular stock takes place, and suggests that inside information may be at play and anticipates future price appreciation.
7 Under Distribution suggests that insiders and others are stealth fully selling on the belief that lower stock prices will occur.
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