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August 20,,2007, 4:01pm

... Effective 9:30am August 21, 2007, a cash dividend is issued in the amount of $8,354,410.01 to reduce the net cash and holding value of the SFHF portfolio to $5,000,000.00.

... At the same time an unrelated change: We are introducing beta version of the new site located at www.beatthedart.com/btd2. All new ideas will be posted on the new site from today forward. The new site will offer automatic updates of the portfolio and of the day trading account. All the results will be kept in a database and can be analyzed anytime. The prices will be updated at the time of every trade and at the end of the day. For a limited time a "guest" account is avalable to everybody without cost.

7:30am ..... The Standard & Poor's 500 index 34.67 to 1,445.94 on Friday. Do not fight the tape when momentum can add to the upside as U.S. stocks soared after the Federal Reserve lowered the rate on loans charged to banks. Investors may have misconstrued the action to believe that a prime rate cut is imminent - forget about it! Change near term resistance to 1503.89 from 1450; but don't get trapped - nothing in the current equation suggests that U.S. stocks can sustain and hold higher prices. Use the opportunity to reduce long side positions, take profits, reduce laggards and conserve cash - consider applying shorts and put options strategies to trades. This is not an investor's market. ... . Central banks around the world have poured billions in additional liquidity into the banking system. Indeed, market turbulence has forced the Fed's hand into a sense of panic. But the Fed cutting the discount rate to 5.75 percent from 6.25 percent does nothing to relief real estate foreclosures or gets the middle class back into the game. Real estate prices are still too high and further downward pressure will reduce equity values. Using real estate as an ATM machine is over. The cut in the discount rate will impart nothing to direct benefit on the U.S. economy given that the discount window is rarely used. Banks, wary of the stigma of having to borrow from the Fed, usually don't ask the central bank for a loan unless they face bankruptcy. As a result, the Fed move was largely symbolic since a cut in the fed funds rate will only exasperate the problem of the falling U.S. dollar against the yen. ... Short covering and bargain hunters helped prompt the market recovery, but volatility is likely to continue this week across the region. More critical will be this week's housing market data and corporate statements on guidance. One piece of data that will be widely watched will be the Commerce Department's report Friday on new home sales and prices. Economists surveyed by Dartline predicted sales of new single-family homes will fall in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 795,000 units, down from 835,000 in June. ... Do not consider this upside blip in stocks as the start of a new trend. The evolution of the crisis in the international markets is not over, especially when more "packaged real estate paper" created by U.S. based investment bankers turn sour. The action by Japan's central bank injecting 1.2 trillion yen ($10.5 billion) into money markets -- the third injection last Friday and triple the amount it had supplied earlier -- in a bid to curb advance in key interest rates as international hedge funds and the like money men are adding further pressure to the carry trade. ...With the Fed's next meeting not scheduled until Sept. 18, investors should remain nervous over the coming weeks as to what the prime interest rate will be. ... The Conference Board on Monday will report on leading economic indicators. The index is expected to rise 0.3 percent for July, compared with June's 0.3 percent decline; the Chicago Federal Reserve releases its July index on national business activity. On Thursday, the Commerce Department releases its monthly measure of durable goods orders. Durable goods orders are anticipated to have risen 1.0 percent in July, a slightly smaller jump than the increase in June. As for indications of consumer sediment on spending and the housing market, watch for: (1) On Tuesday, Target Corp. is expected to report a second-quarter profit of 80 cents a share; BJ's Wholesale Club Inc. is anticipated to post earnings of 41 cents per share. (2) On Wednesday, Toll Brothers Inc. releases quarterly results and is expected to report a fiscal third-quarter profit of 6 cents a share. (3) On Friday, Burger King Holdings Inc. is expected to post a fiscal fourth-quarter profit of 27 cents a share.

August 17, 2007... 8:52am ... S&P 500 index futures above 200-day moving average line. Don't get nervous - this is a short cover rally ... Top line remains 1450. ... 7:30am ...The Standard & Poor's 500 Index closed at 1411.27 4.57 -- after being down sharply earlier in the day (1370.60 - 1415.54). A mere technical bounce - do not get confused from the magnitude of the trading range. Forget about determined downside support, instead establish upside resistance. Use 1450 as the probable mid-term barrier. In less than one month the index is down more than ten-percent and much more to come. ... The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank confirmed business activity was weaker-than-expected in August, showing no growth, versus 9.2 in July. A reading above zero indicates growth in the region's manufacturing sector. Economists polled by Dartline had forecast a reading of 9.1. ... S&P 500 index component General Motors Corp. (GM) last $30.77, which owns 49% of mortgage originator Residential Capital LLC, had its ratings cut to junk status by Moody's Investors Service, citing "significant" funding volatility in the single-family mortgage market. ...The Commerce Department said housing starts set an annual pace of 1.381 million units in July, lower than Dartline forecasts of 1.395 million units and the upwardly revised 1.470 million rate for June. It was the lowest pace since the January 1997 rate of 1.355 million units. Building permits fell 2.8 percent in July to an annual pace of 1.373 million, the lowest since October 1996, when they reached 1.358 million. Economists polled by Dartline expected July permits at 1.400 million after 1.413 million in June. July's drop in housing starts was the worst in the South, where they fell 11 percent. Starts also fell in the West and in the Northeast, but rose in the Midwest. Compared with a year earlier, July home starts were off 20.9 percent and permits were down 22.6 percent. ... Labor Department data showed that the number of U.S. workers signing up for jobless benefits rose to 322,000 last week, the highest level in two months. Economists polled ahead of the report were expecting the weekly claims level to inch down to a seasonally adjusted 313,000 for the week ended August 11, from 316,000 reported the prior week. The four-week moving average increased to 312,500 from 307,750. ... The pieces, taken in their totality confirms that the economy is cool to signal a decline in business activity that will materially affect consumer spending. ... Yesterday the yen had its biggest increase against the dollar in six months as investors fearing a global credit crisis and exited risky trades financed by borrowing the Japanese currency. The yen reached its highest since November against the euro and soaring against high-yielding currencies of the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Though still voluntary, unwinding carry trades has exasperated international credit problems and reduced underlying assets values, which support the loans, to decline further. In the last two months, the dollar dropped from 124.16 yen in June to a 14-month low to 112.00. Selling in other cross-yen trading units triggered automatic sell order as the Australian and New Zealand dollars fell 4.95 and 4.44 percent, to 90.51 and 78.64 respectively.The Australian dollar has now lost more than 12 percent against the yen in the last six sessions at current prices, while the New Zealand dollar is down more than 14 percent against the yen. Multiple similar events can happen in every industrial country. Global risk aversion and further reduce in the availability of credit would be the result. Indeed, without credit, assets value will substantially decline - since stocks are intangible paper - the contraction is only in the early stages.

.. . Purpose of the arrows: - projecting that DJIA, Nasdaq and S&P barometers will close higher at the end of the day. - projected consolidating barometers with limited directional action. - projecting all three barometers declining for the days.

.... Our Message Board and "Contact Us" elements are available at no cost to keep you up-to-date with timely information. Our Fantasy Hedge Fund gives you a concise overview of how investment ideas are executed. All transactions are posted on the Message Board.

View From the Bottom - A roundup of the day's performance

... August 20, 2007, 4:00pm ... Day Trader for the day shows net gain of $35,700.00. Adjustment to the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund ("SFHF") portfolio shows: (1) sold OPLK for a gain of $22,000.00; (2) sold UBSUK.X for a gain of $13,300.00; (3) sold SNPS for a gain of $2,600.00; (4) sold ABBI for a loss of $11,250.00; (5) covered short on AAPl for a loss of $550.00. Net realized change for the day in the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio is a gain of $61,800..00, and for the month a gain of $1,810,646.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses, on average weighted capital of $4,350,735.00.

August 17, 2007, 4:00pm ... Day Trader for the day shows a gain of $30,786.00. ... Adjustment to the Stocksmirf Hedge Fund ("SFHF") portfolio shows: (1) sold MPEL for a gain of $64,500.00; (2) sold call options FREIL.X for a gain of $68,000.00; (3) sold call options STRIG.X for a gain of $60,000.00; (4) sold FRE for a gain of $3,800.00; (5) sold VVUS for a loss of $62,300.00. Net realized change for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio is a gain of $164,786.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses.

August 16, 2007, 4:00pm ... Day Trader for the day shows gains of $521,350.00. ... Adjustments to the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund ("SFHF") portfolio shows: (1) covered short on ETEC for a gain of $159,500.00; (2) covered short on PMI for a gain of $106,000.00; (3) covered short on ADSK for a gain of $27,600.00; (5) covered short on HCR for a gain of $50,100.00; (6) sold OLED for a gain of $600.00; (7) covered short on DAKT for a gain of $10,500.00. Net realized change for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio is a gain of $875,650.00. For the month of August '07 to date SFHF shows a gain of $1,584,060.00. That's more like it!

... Total SFHF portfolio gains on initial capital of $2,500,000.00, including unrealized losses of $234,712.28, from 10.06.06 to 07.31.07 is $11,376,052.14.

 

 
best idea

... INVESTMENT SUGGESTIONS greater than one day - subject to volatility

... August 20, 2007

.... 2:40pm ... SHORT #2 on USG - last $37.66.

.... 9:22am ... SHORT USG Corporation (USG) - last $36.69 . USG manufactures and sells building materials worldwide. Its problem area gypsum products, which are used in various building applications to finish the interior walls, ceilings and floors in residential, commercial, and institutional construction, as well as in certain industrial applications. Guidance looks lower for the next four quarters to suggest lower values. Support near term $31.50.

August 17, 2007

... 2:55pm ... BUY Synopsys Inc (SNPS) - last $23.90. SNP offers electronic design automation software for semiconductor design companies in the United States and internationally. Deal as the primary electronic design automation supplier to Intel Corp. established mid-term stability and should improve guidance. At 14 times forward earnings, SNPS is a clear value play for near and mid-term. No EXIT POINT determined. Closed out position.

... 2:36pm ... SHORT American Woodmark Corporation (AMWD) - last $28.04 AMED manufactures and markets kitchen cabinets and vanities for the remodeling and new home construction markets in the United States. AMWD continues to experience operating margin issues as their markets remain soft. Fundamentals are marginal and further weaknesses do not justify stock price. With earnings due a few days away, nervousness with the earnings and projection numbers will unsettle the stock. Support at near term $22.50

... 1:11pm .... SHORT Adams Respiratory Therapeutics (ARXT) - last $41.26. ARXT is a specialty pharmaceutical company, focusing on over-the-counter and prescription pharmaceuticals marketing for the treatment of respiratory disorders. Fundamentals adequate to justify price, except sponsorship appears questionable. Support at $37.50.

... 12:22pm ... BUY Oplink Communications Inc (OPLK) - last $14.64. OPLK offers design, integration, and optical manufacturing solutions (OMS) for optical networking components and subsystems worldwide. Earnings due Monday to be positive. At 2.4 percent over book value leaves OPLK has adequate asset base to make the Optical Communications Products acquisition financially rewarding, which it agreed to buy a majority stake in Optical Communication Products Inc. from Furukawa Electric Co. for $99 million. Guidance forward can support a higher valuation. EXIT POINT in near term $16.75. Closed out position.

... 10:44am ... notice Change price on APVUE.X to $7.35 from $5.35.

.... 10:26am ... BUY put options in Apple Inc. (APPL) - APVUE.X - Sept '07 strike price $125 - last bid $5.35 . Underlying stock under a wave of distribution.

 

Ticker
Last Trade
Direction
Entrance Point
Exit Point
SNPS
$23.90
$23.90
*Closed out position - take profit


P/E Ratio: 42.7
Forward P/E Ratio: 14.9
Float Shares2: 97.8M true
Company Guidance: *
Recommendation3: *
Support4: 23.60 near term
Resistance5: 28.67
Under Accumulation6: moderate
Under Distribution7: limited

 
today's action

... DAY TRADER

... August 20, 2007

... 2:57pm .... notice Transfer CROX to SFHF portfolio at execution price and time

... 2:43pm ... SHORT #5 on CROX - last $54.49

.... 2:30pm ... COVER ALXN - last $57.38 Take loss.

... 2:22pm ... COVER CROX - last $54.30. Take profit.

... 2:19pm ... notice Transfer ALXN to SFHF portfolio at execution price and time.

... 2:01pm ... SHORT #4 on CROX - last $54.65 Primary institutional selling indicated.

... 12:35pm ... notice Change price on CROX to $53.97.

... 12:15pm ... COVER entire short position in CROX - last $53.96. Take profit.

... 12:00pm ... SHORT Alexion Pharm Inc (ALXN) - last $56.39. Fundamentals adequate to justify price, except sponsorship appears questionable.

... 11:54am ... SELL CFC - last $19.90 . Take loss.

... 11:44am ... COVER SNDK - last $54.95. Take loss.

... 11:41am ... BUY Countrywide Fin (CFC) - last $19.94 Less downside momentum.

... 11:39am ... SHORT #3 on CROX - last $54.78

... 11:04am ... SHORT Sandisk Corp (SNDK) - last $54.67

.... 10:54am ... SHORT #2 on CROX - last $54.21

... 10:26am .. SHORT CROX - last $53.51.

.... 10:22am ... COVER KNSY - last $25.62 Take profit

... 10:12am ... COVER CROX - last $53.50 . Take profit.

.... 9:58am ... SHORT Kensey Nash (KNSY) - last $27.19 Weak Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (macd)

.... 9:57am ... BUY CROCS Inc. (CROX) - last $52.70. Improving Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (macd)

August 17, 2007

.... 3:31pm ... COVER #3 on CFC - last $21.09. Take profit.

... 3:19pm ... SHORT #3 on CFC - last $21.35.

... 3:05pm ... COVER #2 on CFC - last $21.05. Take loss.

.... 2:40pm .... notice Transfer AAPL to SFHF portfolio at execution price and time.

... 1:01pm ... SHORT #2 on CFC - last $20.95

... 12:44pm ... COVER BID - last $36.99 . Less downside momentum. Take profit.

... 12:32pm ... COVER CFC - last $20.82 Take profit

... 11:24am ... SHORT Sothbys (BID) - last $37.97 Near support with limited buying interest to contain price.

... 11:05am ... SHORT Countrywide Finl (CFC) - last $21.36 Questionable Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (macd)

.... 10:18am ... SHORT Apple Inc. (AAPL) - last $121.14 Weak Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (macd)

... From the SFHF portfolio to closeout unsettled positions

... August 20, 2007

... 2:08pm ... SELL Abraxis Bioscience (ABBI) - last $21.43. Failure to attract new buying interest. Lighten position and wait for further developments. Take loss.

... 12.16pm ... COVER Apple Inc. (AAPL) - last $121.25 .Within range that selling presure contracting. Cover short on minor yet steady accumulation. Take loss.

... 12:16pm ... SELL Synopsys Inc (SNPS) - last $24.03. Not acting within acceptable limited - closeout position. Take profit.

.... 11:22am ... SELL UBS puts Sept '07 $55 - UBSUK.X - last bid $3.83. Originally suggested at $2.50 on 08.13.07. Take profit.

... 11:12am ... SELL Oplink Comm (OPLK) - last $15.08. Suggested at $14.64 (average price). Questionable Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (macd). Take profit.

August 17, 2007

.... 4:15pm ... notice Change price on FREIL.X to $ 6.90 from $7.30.

.... 10:53am ... SELL VVUS - last $5.12 . Soft in weak market.Take loss.

... 10:06am ... SELL call options FREIL.X - last bid $7.30 Suggested at $5.20 on 08.07.07. Take profit.

... 9:55am ... SELL call options STPIG.X - last bid $2.90. Suggested at $1.70 on 08.16.07 . Take profit

.... 9:54am ... SELL Freddie Mac (FRE) - last $63.17 . Take profits

.... 9:42am ... SELL entire position on MELCP PBL Enter (MPEL) - last $11.42. Not acting within acceptable limited - closeout position. Take profit.

Net liquidation value of Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund (SFHF) portfolio for the period ending 07.31.07 ............. 11,610,764.00

REALIZEDGAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ........................ ......... $277,601.00

REALIZED GAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio. ...............................$338,049.00

REALIZEDGAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ...... ......................... $371,020.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY '07 in the SFHF portfolio .....................................$615,500.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY '07 in the SFHF portfolio ....................$1,092,241.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH '07 in the SFHF portfolio ......................... $2,941,500.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE APRIL '07 to JUNE '07 in the SFHF portfolio ............................$2,540,068.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR JULY 07 to date in the SFHF portfolio ................................................$934,785.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST 07 to date in the SFHF portfolio ..............$1,810,646.00

UNREALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) in the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio.

August 20, 2007, 4:00pm .................$66,999.99

August 17, 2007, 4:00pm ..................$26,799.98

August 16, 2007, 4:00pm .................$116,399.78

August 15, 2007, 4:00pm ................... $53,800.01

August 14, 2007, 4:00pm ................. . $43,349.96

August 13, 2007, 4:00pm ................ $405,204.10

August 10, 2007, 4:00pm ................. $181,300.00

August 9, 2007, 4:00pm ................... $412,871.09

August 8, 2007, 4:00pm ....................$487,120.00

August 7, 2007, 4:00pm ....................$601,094.06

August 6, 2007, 4:00pm ................$1,013,100.10

August 3, 2007, 4:00pm ................... $867,150.14

August 2, 2007, 4:00pm ................... $512,976.15

August 1, 2007, 4:00pm ....................$442,649.99

July 31, 2007, 4:00pm .......................$234,712.28

__________________________________

Use archives for prior Dartline Summaries and Best Ideas ..

Certain suggestions are considered a primary risk situation and before a commitment is undertaken, as the custom with all ideas suggested therein, consult with your financial adviser or broker.

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