Beat The Dart -"Picking Stocks the Old-fashioned Way"

Questions? Contact Us

First Look \| View From the Bottom \| Best Idea \| Today's Action	go to archive>>

Dartline™

represents immediate change - scroll down.

August 16,2007, 7:30am

.... The S&P 500 Index closed at 1,406.70 19.84, representing the first time in negative territory this year. Forget about determined downside support, instead establish upside resistance. Use 1450 as the probable mid-term barrier. ... No way can the Fed reduce interest rates and must hold the line at 5.25%. Dartline has continued to stress since October '06 that interest rates cannot be lowered since the U.S. dollar must be defended at all costs. ... The yen continued to rally against the dollar in tandem with the decline in U.S. stocks as investors reduce their desire to hold high risk paper, and unwind their carry trades. In carry trades, investors borrow low-yielding currencies to reinvest in higher yielding assets elsewhere - like mortgage paper, hedge fund paper, real estate paper, global equities paper and any junk paper that temporary yielded more than the yen loans. For the last ten days, the dollar-yen has been 84% percent correlated to the S&P 500 index. No coincidence! The action of the yen reflects carry-trade, voluntary liquidation rather than confidence in Japan's economy. However, if the yen advances 5% higher against the U.S. dollar, the orderly carry trade liquidation will become involuntary and set off a global selling frenzy to unwind the billions of dollars in open investments. The trigger would be the Fed taking the irresponsible act of reducing the benchmark interest rate. Dartline believe that the Fed understands the ramifications, while the morons on Wall Street cry for reduction to gain a very short term remedy. The markets will not calm down and what has happened so far is only the tip of the iceberg that sank the Global Titanic. The modern financial world runs on credit. Indeed, if fear rises to a level where fewer are willing to lend the situation can get a lot worse before it starts improving. Since the consumer represents 60% of the U.S. economy and the torrent of foreclosures will take 24 to 36 months to work through the system, a credit deflation combined with analysts trimming earnings estimates spells - catastrophe for equities. Wow! And all those yen participating in the carry trade tied up in U.S. and global "crazy" paper and cannot be readily exchange or liquidate - and you have what? ... Defend the U.S. dollar or else!....... Thursday's economic numbers will include the weekly jobless claims and the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's index for August. ... Consumer confidence numbers will also be closely watched, with the Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Surveys' preliminary August reading on the consumer sentiment index due on Friday. Economists surveyed by Dartline expect the consumer sentiment index to slip to 86.5 in August from July's 90. ... Since the first of August, Dartline suggested to reduce stock positions, take profits, eliminate laggards and conserve cash. Our technicals have turned negative to a level never before experienced. The last time global credit became an issue was the spike in oil prices in mid '70s as the stock market fell to level only witnessed in the 1929-1931 period. Don't get talked out of reducing all long term commitments and ride the horse in the direction it's going.

August 15, 2007, 2:45pm ... Keep an eye on 1,289.82, last visited on August 23, 2006. ... 7:30am ... The S&P 500 index closed at 1,426.54 26.38. On August 13, 2007, Dartline warned of a "bull trap," take profits, limit losses and eliminate laggards. "Trading the market on a day to day basis appears the only conclusion, since anything you buy today will be worth less in 90 days." Interim support should be found at 1412, a level last hold on March 22, 2007. Yesterday's sharp pull back was from investors worrying about fundamental economic problems and ongoing fallout from credit market problems. Report from Wal-Mart Stores Inc. that profit will fall below expectations this year as consumers rein in spending set the stage for the stock market to trip. The Consumer Discretionary (-2.7%) turned in an even worse performance, as it paced the way among the 10 sectors losing ground, suggesting the consumer is pulling back on spending took an added toll on sentiment. ... Rising energy and food costs remain a threat to the inflation outlook as the Fed reiterates that inflation remains its "predominant" concern. The Labor Department reported that core PPI in July rose just 0.1% and followed gains of 0.2% in May and 0.3% in June. Today's CPI report will prove a better inflation read on Fed policy direction. Excluding food and energy prices, the core producer price index increased as expected. For now manufactures are absorbing the increases, limiting the pass-through to the consumer. Producer prices are up 4% in the past year, while core prices are up 2.3%, the biggest gain in nearly two years. Crude goods prices rose 1.2% in July, while prices for intermediate goods needing further processing rose 0.6%. The core intermediate goods PPI rose 0.2% in July and has gained just 2.4% in the past year, the smallest rise since January 2004. However, the PPI is not the Fed's focus - the real issue is what consumer prices do. The PPI measures prices in the production pipeline, not at the retail level. Watch day's consumer price index, which is expected to show a modest 0.1% increase for overall inflation and a 0.2% increase for the core rate excluding food and energy prices. The Fed monitors a different but related inflation measure produced by the Commerce Department, known as the personal consumption expenditure price index, which will be released at the end of the month. The increase in core PCE price index over the past year has been on target to the Fed's unofficial comfort zone of 1% to 2%, but Fed officials continued to say at last week's policy meeting that the risks of higher inflation outweighed the risks of slow growth. Upside risks to inflation is the wrong focus since growing turmoil in credit markets has challenged the economy with recession. The hidden agenda to the emphasis on inflation is to keep the U. S. dollar from become toilet paper.

.. . Purpose of the arrows: - projecting that DJIA, Nasdaq and S&P barometers will close higher at the end of the day. - projected consolidating barometers with limited directional action. - projecting all three barometers declining for the days.

.... Our Message Board and "Contact Us" elements are available at no cost to keep you up-to-date with timely information. Our Fantasy Hedge Fund gives you a concise overview of how investment ideas are executed. All transactions are posted on the Message Board.

View From the Bottom - A roundup of the day's performance

... August 16, 2007, 4:00pm ... Day Trader for the day shows gains of $521,350.00. ... Adjustments to the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund ("SFHF") portfolio shows: (1) covered short on ETEC for a gain of $159,500.00; (2) covered short on PMI for a gain of $106,000.00; (3) covered short on ADSK for a gain of $27,600.00; (5) covered short on HCR for a gain of $50,100.00; (6) sold OLED for a gain of $600.00; (7) covered short on DAKT for a gain of $10,500.00. Net realized change for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio is a gain of $875,650.00. For the month of August '07 to date SFHF shows a gain of $1,584,060.00. That's more like it!

August 15, 2007, 4:00pm ... Day Trader for the day shows net gain of $173,750.00. Adjustment to the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund ("SFHF") portfolio shows: (1) covered short on UBS for a gain of $63.000.00; (2) sold JRJC for a gain of $74,000.00; (3) covered short on CRM for a gain of $22,000.00; (4) sold MKH.X for a loss of $65,000.00; (5) sold MKV.X for a loss of $14,500.00; (6) sold MKL.X for a loss of $11,000.00; (7) covered short on TMA for a loss of $33,500.00; (8) sold AMAT for a loss of $7,300.00. Net realized change for the day in the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio is a gain of $201,450.00, and for the month a gain of $708,410.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses.

August 14, 2007, 4:00pm ... Day Trader for the day shows a gain of $193,440.00. ... Adjustment to the Stocksmirf Hedge Fund ("SFHF") portfolio shows: (1) sold GIGM for a gain of $10,400.00; (2) covered short on TMA for a gain of $430,000.00; (3) covered short on AMZN for a gain of $8,000.00; (4) covered short on BOOM for a gain of $26,500.00; (5) covered short on ANST for a loss of $12,500.00; (6) covered short on FOSL for a loss of $23,300.00; (7) covered short on CTRP for a loss of $58,800.00; (8) sold call options in RSHIF.X for a loss of $170,000.00. Net realized change for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio is a gain of $403,740.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses.

... Total SFHF portfolio gains on initial capital of $2,500,000.00, including unrealized losses of $234,712.28, from 10.06.06 to 07.31.07 is $11,376,052.14.

... INVESTMENT SUGGESTIONS greater than one day - subject to volatility

... August 16, 2007

... 3:29pm ... BUY call options in Suntech Power Holdings (STP) - STPIG.X - $35 strike Sept '07 - last bid $1.70. STP offers design, development, manufacture, and marketing of photovoltaic (PV) cells and modules. It also provides PV system integration services in China. White House veto of a Democratic energy bill that would favor alternative energy not likely. special note: This idea is high risk. As in all situations, consult with your investment adviser or other financial professional before undertaking this suggestion.

... 12::46pm .. COVER entire position on MLAN - last $52.22. Unable to borrow underlying shares and volume restrictions are not conducive to maintain any appropriate amount. Closed out position.

... 12:09pm .... SHORT #2 on Midland Company (MLAN) - last $53.00. Add short position. See Best Idea 08.15.07. Closed out position.

... 11:14am ... COVER EL - last $39.81. EL has more strength than makes sense in this market. Take profit. Closed out position.

.... 10:32am .... BUY #2 on MPEL - last $10.30 . See 08.14.07 under this section.

... 9:31am ... notice Change SHORT price on EL to $40.88 from $39.50.

.... 9:24am ... SHORT The Estee Lauder Companies (EL) - last pre-market $39.50. EL manufactures and sells skin care, makeup, fragrance, and hair care products primarily under stee Lauder, Aramis, Clinique, Prescriptives, Lab Series, Origins, American Beauty, and Good Skin brand names worldwide. The company expects fiscal first quarter profit well below Wall Street's expectations, estimated earnings per share from continuing operations would be between 5 cents per share and 11 cents per share in the first quarter. Dartline expected earnings per share of 29 cents. Near term support at $29.50. Closed out position.

August 15, 2007

... 3:19pm ... COVER SHORT on CRM - last $42.58 Take profits based on rapid action. Closed out position

... 1:39pm ... SHORT Salesforce.com Inc (CRM) - last $44.78. CRM offers on-demand customer relationship management (CRM) services to businesses and industries worldwide. Contracting global growth will affect earnings going forward. Fundamentals are sound, but technicals continue to suggest systematic distribution continues. CRM should report after close and may cause stockholders to sell stock off. Near term support at $40.15.

.... 12:45pm ... BUY MELCO PBL Entertainment (MPEL) - last $11.25 MPEL , a developer and owner of casinos and resorts in Macau has its Crown Macau Hotel Casino is fully operational. With visa restrictions relaxed for visitors looking to travel to the Asian gambling mecca of Macau, MPEL will substantial benefit, which surpassed Las Vegas as the world's largest gambling market. It is the only area of China where gambling is legal The policy was enacted for residents of the Guangdong province of China, a southern region that is close. All the stars are lining up to make MPEL an excellent mid-and long term play.

... 11:47am ... SHORT Autodesk Inc (ADSK) - last $44.06 . ADSK offers design software and support services. . Earnings due tomorrow with limited potential for upside surprise. At technical resistance and decline into $39 range likely.

.... 9:12am ... SHORT Genworth Financial Inc (GNW) - last $27.86. GNW offers insurance and investment-related products and services in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: Protection, Retirement Income and Investments, and Mortgage Insurance. The troubled Mortgage Insurance segment offers mortgage insurance products in the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Mexico, Japan, and Europe, customers include originators of residential mortgage loans, such as mortgage banks, savings institutions, commercial banks, mortgage brokers, credit unions, and other lenders. Larger writeoffs will reduce margins and create liquidity problems. Management will attempt to address problem with investors' conference, but does not change fundamentals. Support at $15.00

August 14, 2007

.... 5:11pm ... SELL Applied Materials (AMAT) - after market bid $ 20.65. Take loss based on disappearing numbers. AMAT expects orders and revenue to decline in the current quarter from the just-reported period as a recovery in its flat-panel display business has yet to take a firm hold, and expects a fiscal fourth-quarter per-share profit of 26 cents to 29 cents, and revenue to decline 5 percent to 10 percent from the $2.56 billion it had in the third quarter. Closed out position

... 3:51pm ... SHORT E*TRADE Financial Corporation (ETFC) - last $15.02 ETFC offers financial solutions to retail and institutional customers worldwide. Its exposure in mortgage, home equity, and margin and credit card products; real estate loans; and various consumer loans, including recreational vehicle, marine, commercial, automobile, and credit card loans may place at risk $27 billions in losses. Support $7.50. Closed out position

... 1:35pm ... SELL KVHI - last $10.12 . Not satisfied with volume and the general market. Take profit. Closed out position

... 11:52am ... BUY KVH Industries Inc. (KVHI) - last $10.06 . KVHI manufactures, and markets mobile communications products for the land and marine markets, and navigation, guidance, and stabilization products for the defense and commercial markets. Fundamentals improve and the company begins to gain traction to improve margins and operating profile. Management is excellent and business plan sufficient to enhance stock value. Earnings due after the close should be in-line, while guidance should increase. Selling at 12 times forward earnings and true float of 9.6 million shares, KVHI is at a price level to accelerate. EXIT POINT in near term is $14.75. Closed out position

....9:35am ... BUY China Financial Online (JRJC) - last $9.92 . JRJC sells online financial services to analyze financial and listed company information in the People's Republic of China. Buy on improving fundamentals. EXIT POINT $14.50. Closed out position

Ticker	Last Trade	Direction	Entrance Point	Exit Point
GNW	$27.86		$27.86	$15.00

P/E Ratio:	*
Forward P/E Ratio:	*
Float Shares2:	*
Company Guidance:	*
Recommendation3:	*
Support4:	23.50 near term
Resistance5:	15.00
Under Accumulation6:	no
Under Distribution7:	yes

... DAY TRADER

... August 16, 2007

... 2:37pm ... COVER #6 on CFC - last $18.42 Take profit.

... 2:20pm ... SHORT #6 on CFC - last $18.84 Weak Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (macd)

... 2:18pm .. SELL CFC - last $19.24 Take profit

... 1:54pm ... COVER #5 on CFC - last $16.80 and BUY #4 on CFC at the market last $16.80

... 1:33pm ... SELL #1 on ETFC - last $11.20 Take profit.

... 1:31pm ... SHORT #5 on CFC - last $16.47

.... 1:28pm ... SELL #3 on CFC - last $16.90 Take profit

.... 1:18pm ... BUY #1 on ETFC - last $10.77 Strong Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (macd)

... 1:11pm ... BUY #3 on CFC - last $16.31 .Improving Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (macd)

... 1:03pm ... COVER #4 on CFC - last $15.44. Take profit.

... 12:55pm ... notice Change COVER #4 on CFC to SHORT #4 on CFC.

... 12:54pm ... COVER #4 on CFC- last $16.00

... 12:42pm ... COVER #3 on CFC - last $16.01 Take profit

... 12:38pm ... SELL #2 on CFC - last $16.65 and SHORT at market - last $16.62

.... 12:30pm ... BUY #2 on CFC- last $16.83 Oversold for near term.

... 12:21pm ... COVER #2 on ETFC - last $10.66 Take profit

... ... 12:16pm ... COVER #2 on CFC - last $ 16.59 Take profit.

.... 12:01pm ... SHORT #2 on ETFC - last $12.01

.... 11:45am ... SHORT #2 on EL - last $40.20 . See Best Idea for today.

... 11;29am .... SELL ICE - last $128.80. Failure to attract new buying interest. Take profit.

.... 1:23am .. SHORT #2 on CFC - last $18.10

... 10:40am ... COVER CFC - last $17.99 Take profit

... 10:37am ... COVER SHORT #2 on ETFC- last $11.92 Take profit.

.... 10:37am ... BUY Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) - last $123.21. Trade to $135 on oversold condition.

... 10:14am ... SHORT E*Trade Finl (ETFC) - last $12.48 . See Best Idea for 08.14.07.

... 9:57am ... SHORT CFC - last $18.41

... 9:55am ... SELL CFC - last $18.60 Take profit

... 9:43am ... BUY Countrywide Financial (CFC) - last $17.77

August 15, 2007

... 3:42pm .... COVER open position in TMA - last $10.18

... 3:07pm ... SHORT #5 on TMA - last $10.78

.. 2:47pm ... SHORT #4 on TMA - last $10.74 On larger trade sizes and contracting macd.

.... 2:47pm ... notice Transfer MLAN to SFHF portfolio at execution price and time.

... 2:42pm ... COVER entire short position in TMA - last $10.80 Take profit.

... 1:43pm ... SHORT #3 on TMA - last $11.70 .

... 11:24am ... SHORT #2 in TMA - last $11.18

....10:51am ... COVER SHORT and entire open position in SFHF on TMA - last $10.83

... 10:23am ... SHORT TMA - last $11.95 . On run up

... 9:52am ... SHORT #2 on MLAN - last $51.31

... 9:35am ... SHORT Midland Company (MLAN) - last $50.40. At near term resistance with limited accumulation.

... From the SFHF portfolio to closeout unsettled positions

... August 16, 2007

... 2:07pm .... Partial SFHF portfolio liquidation. ... (1) cover short on HCR - last $59.63. Take profit; (2) sell OLED - last $11.65. Take profit. (3) cover short on DAKT - last $24.40. Take profit.

.... 1:05pm ... Cover ADSK - last $41.30 Take profit.

... 11:56pm ... notice - MLAN - not executed.

... 11:55am ... COVER MLAN - last $53.29 .

... 11:35am ... COVER PMI Group Inc. (PMI) - last $26.40. Originally suggested at $29.05 on 08.10.07. Take profit.

.... 9.58am ... COVER E*Trade Financial (ETFC) - last $11.83 .Originally suggested as short sale at $15.02 on 08.14.07. Take profit.

August 15, 2007

.. 3:42pm ... COVER SHORT Thornburg Mtg Inc (TMA) - last $ 10.18

.... 2:15pm ... SELL call options in Macy's - (1) MKH.X - last $0.65; (2) MKV.X - last $0.50; (3) MKI.X - last $0.45. Take losses.

... 11:08am ... SELL China Finance Online (JRJC) - last $11.40 Originally suggested at $9.92 on 08.14.07. Take profit.

... 11:01am ... COVER UBS AG (UBS) - last $51.60. Originally suggested at $54.75 on 08.13.07. Take profit.

___________________

Net liquidation value of Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund (SFHF) portfolio for the period ending 07.31.07 ............. 11,610,764.00

REALIZEDGAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ........................ ......... $277,601.00

REALIZED GAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio. ...............................$338,049.00

REALIZEDGAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ...... ......................... $371,020.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY '07 in the SFHF portfolio .....................................$615,500.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY '07 in the SFHF portfolio ....................$1,092,241.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH '07 in the SFHF portfolio ......................... $2,941,500.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE APRIL '07 to JUNE '07 in the SFHF portfolio ............................$2,540,068.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR JULY 07 to date in the SFHF portfolio ................................................$934,785.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST 07 to date in the SFHF portfolio ..............$1,584,060.00

UNREALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) in the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio.

August 16, 2007, 4:00pm .................$116,399.78

August 15, 2007, 4:00pm ................... $53,800.01

August 14, 2007, 4:00pm ................. . $43,349.96

August 13, 2007, 4:00pm ................ $405,204.10

August 10, 2007, 4:00pm ................. $181,300.00

August 9, 2007, 4:00pm ................... $412,871.09

August 8, 2007, 4:00pm ....................$487,120.00

August 7, 2007, 4:00pm ....................$601,094.06

August 6, 2007, 4:00pm ................$1,013,100.10

August 3, 2007, 4:00pm ................... $867,150.14

August 2, 2007, 4:00pm ................... $512,976.15

August 1, 2007, 4:00pm ....................$442,649.99

July 31, 2007, 4:00pm .......................$234,712.28

__________________________________

Use archives for prior Dartline Summaries and Best Ideas ..

Certain suggestions are considered a primary risk situation and before a commitment is undertaken, as the custom with all ideas suggested therein, consult with your financial adviser or broker.

.......Note: Changes will be instantly broadcast on our Message Board. Log-in, it's free.

BeatTheDart.com offers a quick guide to update all commentaries relating to entrance and exit points. Now you are able to quickly bring into focus events that affected your investment resources. Use this important tool when considering asset redeployment or to modify capital decisions. Indeed, most investments are sensitive to timing, and accordingly many unforeseen developments can have a direct correlation to profits or losses. BeatTheDart.com will attempt to access events using avail bale information and our database. Since BeatTheDart.com relies on pattern recognition systems and probabilistic averages, all new information has a direct relationship to what has been previously reported. Thus , the information is only unique at the moment retrieved. The objective is to update, refine and present known facts that may have been deleted or unknown at an earlier date. The intent is simple..BeatTheDart.com does not report history and attempts to accurately access the present as it relates to the future. Events and circumstances are considered based on the most likely conclusions from a given set of fact and probability theory. BeatTheDart.com does not profess to be analysts, prophets or Wall Street wizards. Most stock recommendations of others have hidden agendas and reasons unrelated to the best interests of the recipient. BeatTheDart.com uses all available facts and are merely summarized from a common sense perspective. Emotional factors and unrelated circumstances are removed from the equation, making the reporting unbiased. The philosophy behind the web text is to accumulate available evidence, present it in a simple format, and offer it for you to judge; to assess and most assuredly to use prudence and with sound judgment .
Remember: knowledge can be communicated; wisdom is your department.

BEAT THE DART is a classic term originally applied in 1898 when J.P. Morgan threw a dart at the stock table page of the New York Times. Whatever the dart hot, he purchased the stock and made a fortune. In time others used the procedure with startling results. The dart picks beat professional analysts 65% of the time!
All content provided by BEAT THE DART.COM is for information only and not for trading or investment purposes, and may not be redistributed without written consent. You agree, neither BEAT THE DART nor any of its content providers will be liable for any errors or delays in receiving the content, for actions taken in reliance on the content.
1 Based on market conditions and other factors previewed in Best Ideas, changes can happen at any time. Accordingly, continue to log-in on a regular basis to maintain maximum performance.
2 Float - Available stock position in the hands of the general public of the total outstanding.
3 Institutional recommendations during the last 30 days.
4 Under technical analysis the term 'support' refers to a point in the stock's price that is immediately maintained and usually suggests an entrance point to purchase.
5 Under technical analysis the term 'resistance' suggests that a point in the stock's price has been reached and further gains are temporarily unlikely.
6 Under Accumulation occurs when abnormal buying in a particular stock takes place, and suggests that inside information may be at play and anticipates future price appreciation.
7 Under Distribution suggests that insiders and others are stealth fully selling on the belief that lower stock prices will occur.
© 2007 ERBC Services Corp.