Beat The Dart -"Picking Stocks the Old-fashioned Way"

Questions? Contact Us

First Look \| View From the Bottom \| Best Idea \| Today's Action	go to archive>>

Dartline™

represents immediate change - scroll down.

August 14, 2007, 7:30am.

... The Standard & Poor's 500 index 0.72 to 1,452.92. Set near term trading parameters to the 1412 - 1475 range. Use all opportunities to take profits, reduce exposure to lagging stocks and only commit new funds to both sides of the market that create extremely oversold or overbought situations. ... An early morning attempt to jump start the market failed yesterday as Goldman Sachs purportedly invested $2.0 billion of its own money in the struggling GEO quant fund, which had loss 70% of its value using quantitative strategies, a fancy name for computer driven trading that under the best conditions never works. The self serving charade had little staying power as investors remain nervous with allegedly "first-line" professionals managing stock market values. Indeed, a great deal of uncertainty in the market over the extent of problems in the subprime mortgage sector will not go away easily. Look past the Fed's liquidity injections and to the housing market problems that underlie investors' fears about the availability of credit. The fallout from an overheated housing market and overextended consumers are beginning to emerge. Remain patient and don't buying into a bull trap. A market correction of 15%-25% in the S&P 500 index appears to be the probable answer.

... August 13, 2007, 1:20pm ... Watch for the bull trap as S&P 500 index at 1457.42 3.53 is not good enough after a day of positive spin from talking heads. Take profits, limit losses and eliminate laggards. ... 7:30am ... The S&P 500 index starts at 1453.64. Use 1338.09 in the index as a "must hold," while keeping an eye on 1,289.82, last visited on August 23, 2006. On the upside 1475 becomes resistance. Trading the market on a day to day basis appears the only conclusion, since anything you buy today will be worth less in 90 days. Don't fight the tape and don't spun by the talking heads. Think about - What events are most important to stocks? Earnings per share is the main reason why any stock has intrinsic value. E/P ratios going into '08 don't look good. So why would stock go up? ... More volatile this week, as investors weigh the interventions by global central banks to stabilize credit markets. Even as stocks inched back from steep losses, the Federal Reserve and other major central banks intervention doesn't mean the crisis in the credit market is over. The last time such action took place was the results of September 11, 2001 terrorist acts on the World Trade Center. Dartline believes the intervention underscores the problem and if it doesn't work in the near term, a liquidity crisis of unprecedented proportions with reduce global assets as the U.S. dollar would sell off by 25% to 35%, an event not seen since 1929-1934 period, an add to realignment of all currencies. ... The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), Wall Street's main measure of investor fear, finished the last week at 28.30 after posting another four-year high of 29.84, marking the 12th straight session it has closed above a 20 reading. The VIX measures projected stock market volatility embedded in Standard & Poor's 500 index. The focus has been on the financial sector because of the fallout from structured credit woes, while technology companies exhibit less volatility. Since VIX typically runs opposite to the S&P index, it moves up when stocks fall, indicating participants have become more anxious and bid up the risk premium in options. Indeed, the market turmoil justifies a higher VIX and until the market can come to terms with the problems in the financial sector. Volatility has transformed a traditional a long term investment stock market into a short term trading arena. ... What about the economy card? Economic data this week, will tell another story. If the data shows high-than-expected inflation, the Fed will not cut rates, not withstanding what it would do to the dollar if it did. ... Watch U.S. retail sales data for July on Monday for clues on changes in consumer habits, as well as earnings updates from retailers Home Depot Inc (HD) and Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT), both due on Tuesday. The producer price index, also due on Tuesday, is expected to climb 0.2 percent. ... On Wednesday, the closely watched core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise 0.2 percent in July, matching June's gain. . At issue is the credit crunch and the public's inability to draw equity from their homes and spend it on junk equals consumer confidence ruled by fear. ... With the current focus on the housing sector, July housing starts on Thursday are likely to come under close scrutiny. The Dartline poll of economists showed that July housing starts are expected to decline to an annual rate of 1.561 million units from 1.467 million in June. Building permits for July also are likely to decline to an annual pace of 1.400 million units from 1.413 million the previous month. Thursday's economic numbers will include the weekly jobless claims and the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's index for August ... .Consumer confidence numbers will also be closely watched, with the Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Surveys' preliminary August reading on the consumer sentiment index due on Friday. Economists surveyed by Dartline expect the consumer sentiment index to slip to 87.0 in August from July's 90.4.

.. . Purpose of the arrows: - projecting that DJIA, Nasdaq and S&P barometers will close higher at the end of the day. - projected consolidating barometers with limited directional action. - projecting all three barometers declining for the days.

.... Our Message Board and "Contact Us" elements are available at no cost to keep you up-to-date with timely information. Our Fantasy Hedge Fund gives you a concise overview of how investment ideas are executed. All transactions are posted on the Message Board.

View From the Bottom - A roundup of the day's performance

... ... August 14, 2007, 4:00pm ... Day Trader for the day shows a gain of $193,440.00. ... Adjustment to the Stocksmirf Hedge Fund ("SFHF") portfolio shows: (1) sold GIGM for a gain of $10,400.00; (2) covered short on TMA for a gain of $430,000.00; (3) covered short on AMZN for a gain of $8,000.00; (4) covered short on BOOM for a gain of $26,500.00; (5) covered short on ANST for a loss of $12,500.00; (6) covered short on FOSL for a loss of $23,300.00; (7) covered short on CTRP for a loss of $58,800.00; (8) sold call options in RSHIF.X for a loss of $170,000.00. Net realized change for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio is a gain of $403,740.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses.

August 13, 2007, 4:00pm ... Day Trader for the day shows gains of $218,920.00, which includes the Best Idea trades in TMA, originally suggested as near term commitment and day traded based on abnormal volatility . ... Adjustments to the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund ("SFHF") portfolio shows: (1) covered short on KNOT for a gain of $104,000.00; (2) covered short on HB for a gain of $40,700.00; (3) covered short on AMSC for a gain of $83,000.00; (4) sold put options in HBUM.X for a gain of $85,000.00; (5) sold VCLK for a gain of $40,350.00; (6) sold WRSLA for a loss of $90,000.00. Net realized change for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio is a gain of $522,320.00. For the month of August '07 to date SFHF shows a gain of $103,220.00.

... August 10, 2007, 4:00pm ... Day Trader for the day shows net gain of $11,000.00. Adjustment to the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund ("SFHF") portfolio shows: (1) sold ABBI for a gain of $297,600.00; (2) sold SLXP for a gain of $40,800.00; (3) sold IFON for a loss of $3,300.00; (4) sold C for a loss of $40,800.00; (5) sold CSUN for a loss of $291,900.00. Net realized change for the day in the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio is a loss of $23,320.00, and for the month a loss of $419,100.00 , excluding unrealized gains or losses.

... Total SFHF portfolio gains on initial capital of $2,500,000.00, including unrealized losses of $234,712.28, from 10.06.06 to 07.31.07 is $11,376,052.14.

... August 14, 2007

.... 5:11pm ... SELL Applied Materials (AMAT) - after market bid $ 20.65. Take loss based on disappearing numbers. AMAT expects orders and revenue to decline in the current quarter from the just-reported period as a recovery in its flat-panel display business has yet to take a firm hold, and expects a fiscal fourth-quarter per-share profit of 26 cents to 29 cents, and revenue to decline 5 percent to 10 percent from the $2.56 billion it had in the third quarter.

... 3:51pm ... SHORT E*TRADE Financial Corporation (ETFC) - last $15.02 ETFC offers financial solutions to retail and institutional customers worldwide. Its exposure in mortgage, home equity, and margin and credit card products; real estate loans; and various consumer loans, including recreational vehicle, marine, commercial, automobile, and credit card loans may place at risk $27 billions in losses. Support $7.50.

... 1:35pm ... SELL KVHI - last $10.12 . Not satisfied with volume and the general market. Take profit. Closed out position

... 11:52am ... BUY KVH Industries Inc. (KVHI) - last $10.06 . KVHI manufactures, and markets mobile communications products for the land and marine markets, and navigation, guidance, and stabilization products for the defense and commercial markets. Fundamentals improve and the company begins to gain traction to improve margins and operating profile. Management is excellent and business plan sufficient to enhance stock value. Earnings due after the close should be in-line, while guidance should increase. Selling at 12 times forward earnings and true float of 9.6 million shares, KVHI is at a price level to accelerate. EXIT POINT in near term is $14.75. Closed out position

....9:35am ... BUY China Financial Online (JRJC) - last $9.92 . JRJC sells online financial services to analyze financial and listed company information in the People's Republic of China. Buy on improving fundamentals. EXIT POINT $14.50.

August 13, 2007

... 2:25pm ... SHORT Daktronics Inc. (DAKT) - last $25.45 DAKT designs, markets, and supports visual display solutions for the sports, commercial, and transportation applications. With earnings due of the 15th, look for weakness in profit margins and accelerated marketing costs to affect perform of stock. Support at $21.50.

... 1:44pm ... SHORT #4 on TMA - last $15.18 note: see Message Board.

... 1:30pm ... COVER #3 on TMA - last $14.72 Take profit with intent to revisit. Closed out position

... 12:59pm ... SHORT #3 on TMA - last $14.92 . Contracting macd while trade size favors down leg from this level, even after 3 + point decline.

... 12:43pm ... COVER entire short position on TMA - last $14.70. Take profit. Closed out position

... 12:25pm ... SHORT Cambridge Display Technology Inc (OLED) -last $11.62 . OLED makes and markets polymer organic light emitting diodes (P-OLEDs) for use in flat panel displays and other applications - a highly competitive field. With reduced margins and lower projections, OLED is susceptible to price weaken. Support at $7.50 in the near term, especially with earnings due on the 15th.

... 11:09am ... notice Change price on UBSUK.X to $2.50 from $2.86

.... 10:40am ... SHORT #2 on TMA - last $16.19 . Add to position. Closed out position

... 10:21am ... notice Change in time for TMA.

... 10:12am ... SHORT Thornburg Mtg Inc. (TMA) - last $15.27 TMA offers single-family residential mortgage lending company. It originates, acquires, and retains investments in adjustable and variable rate mortgage (ARM) assets. Earnings growth and prospects limited. Support at $9.50. Closed out position

... 7:30am ... BUY GigaMedia Limited (GIGM) - last 10.85. GIGM creates and licenses online gaming software, and provides application services; owns and operates an online games portal. In Asia, GIGM expanded its online entertainment platform to reach over 65 million registered users, with over 8 million active users per month. New launch this summer of new games and products in Asia, including a suite of real-money Japanese games to build an online entertainment platform has excellent mid-term potential. A speculative BUY based on improving guidance. EXIT POINT $14.50. Closed out position

... 7:30am .. SHORT Fossil, Inc. (FOSL) - last $27.37. FOSL designs, develops, and sells fashion accessories, including apparel, belts, handbags, jewelry, small leather goods, sunglasses, and watches under proprietary and licensed brand names worldwide. With exposure in Europe and contracting margins, FOSL is rip to decline to the $21 - $23 trading range. Consider the stock as near term trade. Closed out position

... 7:30am ... SHORT Ansoft Corporation (ANST) - last $25.38 ANST creates and markets electronic design automation (EDA) software used primarily in technology industry. Operating expenses appear to be tracking poorly, which may affect guidance. Support at $19.50. Closed out position

... 7:30am ... BUY UBS puts - UBSUK-X - $55 strike Sept '07 - ask price $2.86.

... 7:30am ... SHORT UBS AG (UBS) - last $54.75 USB offers investment banking and securities, wealth management, asset management, and retail and corporate banking services worldwide. The company's asset management services unit has exposure in asset allocation; alternative and quantitative investments, such as multi-manager funds, funds of hedge funds, and hedge funds; and real estate. Support at $45.00.

Ticker	Last Trade	Direction	Entrance Point	Exit Point
GIGM	$10.85		$10.85	closed out at $11.94

P/E Ratio:	16.42
Forward P/E Ratio:	11.50
Float Shares2:	27.3 M - true
Company Guidance:	*
Recommendation3:	*
Support4:	9.95 near term
Resistance5:	16.42
Under Accumulation6:	yes
Under Distribution7:	limited

... DAY TRADER

... August 14, 2007

... 3:14pm ... notice Transfer AMAT to the SFHF portfolio.

... 3:07pm ... notice Transfer TMA to the SFHF portfolio.

... 2:30pm ... SELL FOSL - last $29.55 Take profit

... 2:15pm ... BUY FOSL - last $29.32. Improving macd.

... 2:14pm ... SHORT #4 on TMA - last $9.51

... 2:13pm ... SELL TMA - last $9.55. Take loss.

... 2:03pm ... BUY TMA - last $9.75 . On valuation. Oversold.

... 1:55pm ... COVER entire position in TMA - last $9.68 Take profit.

... 1:07pm ... COVER #3 on FOSL - last $30.32 Take profit.

... 12:57pm ... COVER VRSN - last $29.94 Take profit.

... 12:36pm ... SHORT Verisign Inc. (VRSN) - last $30.75. Finding resistance after run up.

... 12:07pm ... SHORT #3 on TMA - last $10.80

... 11:32am ... SHORT #3 on FOSL - last $30.95 .

... 11:24am ... SHORT #2 on TMA - last $10.15 . Under pressure with limited buying interest.

... 11:24am ... BUY Applied Materials (AMAT) - last $21.38 Earnings play and valuation to $23.50.

... 11:20am ... COVER #2 on FOSL - last $31.28. Take profit

... 11:14am ... COVER TMA - last $10.22 . Take profit.

... 10:16am ... SHORT Thornburg Mtg Inc (TMA) . - last $11.76. See Message Board

... 10:08am ... SHORT #2 on FOSL - last $31.94. .

... 9:44am ... COVER FOSL - last $31.82. Take profit.

... 9:32am ... SHORT Fossil Inc. (FOSL) - last $32.65 . Overbought.

August 13, 2007

... 2:49pm ... notice Transfer BOOM to the SFHF portfolio.

... 1:39pm ... COVER #2 on BX - last $26.35 Take profit

... 11:26am ... SHORT #2 on BOOM - last $43.71

... 10:59am ... COVER BOOM - last $43.77 Take profit

... 10:54am ... SHORT #2 on BX --last $26.70

... 9:59am ... SHORT BX - last $26.60

... 9:56am ... SELL BX - last $26.54 . Take loss

... 9:35am ... SHORT Dynamics Materials (BOOM) - last $44.74 Support at $42.50

... 9:10am ... notice Change price on BX to $27.06 from $27.25.

... 9:08am ... BUY The Blackstone Group L.P. (BX) - last $27.25 pre-market . BX offers alternative asset management and financial advisory services worldwide. Trade to $29.50 on earnings rise.

... From the SFHF portfolio to closeout unsettled positions

... August 14, 2007

... 3:04pm ... SELL put option in RSHIF.X - last bid $0.15. Take loss.

.... 1:29pm ... COVER Fossil Inc. (FOSL) - last $29.70 Take loss

.... 11:04am ... partial portfolio liquidation at the market ... (1) COVER Amazon.com (AMZN) - last $73.00. Take profits ; (2) COVER Dynamics Materials (BOOM) - last $41.06. Take profit; (3) SELL Ansoft Corp (ANST) - last $26.63. Take loss.

... 9:49 am ... COVER Thornburg Mtg Inc. (TMA) - last $10.88 . Originally suggested at $15.18 on 08.13.07. Take profit.

... 9:42am ... SELL GIGAMEDIA Ltd (GIGM) - last $11.89 . Take profit

August 13, 2007

... 1:27pm ... SELL WTSLA - last $4.49 . Take loss.

... 10:35am ... SELL VCLK - last $20.82. . Take profit.

... 9:43am ... notice as to price changes: (1) KNOT $20.32; (2) HB $60.94; (3) AMSC $23.14.

... 9:26am ... partial portfolio liquidation at the market - (1) SELL KNOT - last $22.14 Take profit; (2) HB- last $60.63 Take profit; (3) SELL HBUM.X - last $5.90 Take profit ; (4) SELL AMSC - last $22.49 Take profit. .

___________________

Net liquidation value of Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund (SFHF) portfolio for the period ending 07.31.07 ............. 11,610,764.00

REALIZEDGAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ........................ ......... $277,601.00

REALIZED GAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio. ...............................$338,049.00

REALIZEDGAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ...... ......................... $371,020.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY '07 in the SFHF portfolio .....................................$615,500.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY '07 in the SFHF portfolio ....................$1,092,241.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH '07 in the SFHF portfolio ......................... $2,941,500.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE APRIL '07 to JUNE '07 in the SFHF portfolio ............................$2,540,068.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR JULY 07 to date in the SFHF portfolio ................................................$934,785.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST 07 to date in the SFHF portfolio .................$506,960.00

UNREALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) in the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio.

August 14, 2007, 4:00pm ................. . $43,349.96

August 13, 2007, 4:00pm ................ $405,204.10

August 10, 2007, 4:00pm ................. $181,300.00

August 9, 2007, 4:00pm ................... $412,871.09

August 8, 2007, 4:00pm ....................$487,120.00

August 7, 2007, 4:00pm ....................$601,094.06

August 6, 2007, 4:00pm ................$1,013,100.10

August 3, 2007, 4:00pm ................... $867,150.14

August 2, 2007, 4:00pm ................... $512,976.15

August 1, 2007, 4:00pm ....................$442,649.99

July 31, 2007, 4:00pm .......................$234,712.28

__________________________________

Use archives for prior Dartline Summaries and Best Ideas ..

Certain suggestions are considered a primary risk situation and before a commitment is undertaken, as the custom with all ideas suggested therein, consult with your financial adviser or broker.

.......Note: Changes will be instantly broadcast on our Message Board. Log-in, it's free.

BeatTheDart.com offers a quick guide to update all commentaries relating to entrance and exit points. Now you are able to quickly bring into focus events that affected your investment resources. Use this important tool when considering asset redeployment or to modify capital decisions. Indeed, most investments are sensitive to timing, and accordingly many unforeseen developments can have a direct correlation to profits or losses. BeatTheDart.com will attempt to access events using avail bale information and our database. Since BeatTheDart.com relies on pattern recognition systems and probabilistic averages, all new information has a direct relationship to what has been previously reported. Thus , the information is only unique at the moment retrieved. The objective is to update, refine and present known facts that may have been deleted or unknown at an earlier date. The intent is simple..BeatTheDart.com does not report history and attempts to accurately access the present as it relates to the future. Events and circumstances are considered based on the most likely conclusions from a given set of fact and probability theory. BeatTheDart.com does not profess to be analysts, prophets or Wall Street wizards. Most stock recommendations of others have hidden agendas and reasons unrelated to the best interests of the recipient. BeatTheDart.com uses all available facts and are merely summarized from a common sense perspective. Emotional factors and unrelated circumstances are removed from the equation, making the reporting unbiased. The philosophy behind the web text is to accumulate available evidence, present it in a simple format, and offer it for you to judge; to assess and most assuredly to use prudence and with sound judgment .
Remember: knowledge can be communicated; wisdom is your department.

BEAT THE DART is a classic term originally applied in 1898 when J.P. Morgan threw a dart at the stock table page of the New York Times. Whatever the dart hot, he purchased the stock and made a fortune. In time others used the procedure with startling results. The dart picks beat professional analysts 65% of the time!
All content provided by BEAT THE DART.COM is for information only and not for trading or investment purposes, and may not be redistributed without written consent. You agree, neither BEAT THE DART nor any of its content providers will be liable for any errors or delays in receiving the content, for actions taken in reliance on the content.
1 Based on market conditions and other factors previewed in Best Ideas, changes can happen at any time. Accordingly, continue to log-in on a regular basis to maintain maximum performance.
2 Float - Available stock position in the hands of the general public of the total outstanding.
3 Institutional recommendations during the last 30 days.
4 Under technical analysis the term 'support' refers to a point in the stock's price that is immediately maintained and usually suggests an entrance point to purchase.
5 Under technical analysis the term 'resistance' suggests that a point in the stock's price has been reached and further gains are temporarily unlikely.
6 Under Accumulation occurs when abnormal buying in a particular stock takes place, and suggests that inside information may be at play and anticipates future price appreciation.
7 Under Distribution suggests that insiders and others are stealth fully selling on the belief that lower stock prices will occur.
© 2007 ERBC Services Corp.