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August 10, 2007, 7:30am

... The Standard & Poor's 500 index 44.40 to 1,453.09, the second worst close so far this year. A critical test at 1338.09 in the index is a "must hold," or 1,289.82, last visited on August 23, 2006, remain the next major stop. In between the chaos, trading the market on a day to day basis appears the only conclusion, since anything you buy today will be worth less in 90 days. As predicted in this column, worldwide liquidity causes intangibles to contract - stocks are the biggest intangibles out there. A global liquidity crisis from lack of available credit seems probable, because the underlying collateral to support the debt is being revalued lower. ... Case in point: Hedge fund liquidations unnerved the credit market further to cause three central banks to intervene in an attempt to calm markets.The Federal Reserve added a larger-than-normal $24 billion in temporary reserves to the U.S. banking system. Questionable U.S. home loans packaged and sold to naive financial institutions overseas have made the subprime slime a global problem. The European Central Bank was forced to allocate 94.841 billion euros, or about $131 billion to add liquidity to the money markets, a step the ECB last made the day after September 11, 2001. The Bank of Canada added C$1.455 billion into the markets. ... Apparently, the Federal Open Market Committee doesn't have an idea of the evolving risks from the turmoil in the financial markets, and instead focused on "inflation pressures." Wrong agenda!... What's going on is a potential financial meltdown, which will cause a revaluation of assets. Since the underpinning of the loans on real estate were based on unrealistic inflationary values, the likelihood of more pain and realignment is probable and underscores the potential worldwide ramifications of substantially lower, across the board, equity values. Indeed, the old arguments appears to lack substance that the global economy can keep growing without easy credit. Without abundant credit nothing works. The ECB's injection of money into the system is an unprecedented move that highlights the interdependency of credit in cross-border markets. .... Since the first of August, Dartline suggested to reduce stock positions, take profits, eliminate laggards and conserve cash, yet our trading model continued to maintain a long bias. Mistake! Our technicals have turned negative to a level never before experienced. The last time global credit became an issue was the spike in oil prices in mid '70s as the stock market fell to level only experience in 1929. ...Retailers released July sales figures reported yesterday that were overall disappointing - another ripple effect from the housing collapse working its way through the economy. ...Unwinding of yen-carry trades led to a sharp surge in the yen, and lack of liquidity in the commodities market. Global credit worries prompted investors to reduce their exposure in risky trades financed by Japanese currency. Gold may be the next "big" casualty.

-- August 9, 2007, 8:30am ... S&P 500 index futures substantial lower points after major French bank said it was freezing three of its asset-backed securities funds that have had struggled to find liquidity in the U.S. subprime mortgage market As predicted in this column, worldwide liquidity causes intangibles to contract - stocks are the biggest intangibles out there. Watch 1475 as technical support, a break would drive the index to test recent lows of July 18 at 1533. Maintain balanced attack with downside bias.

... 7;30am ... The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 20.78 to 1,497.49, to establish its biggest three-day point gain since October 2002. Stocks jumped from positive results in the technology arena and the Fed's words said the economy should keep expanding. However, a late-day plunge and revealed investors' short fuse. With sentiment able to turn on a dime, you must remain flexible and trade what's available, while keeping a watchful eye on the tape. Spinning up and down like a yo yo in recent weeks on worries that borrowing will get tougher because of losses in the subprime mortgage market, has truly created trading opportunities on both sides. Change your upside resistance point to 1524.31 (July 25th level), while maintaining support at 1475. Don't fight the tape. ... The dollar was sidelined on news that central banks overseas were raising key interest rates or possibly a rate hikes in the near future. The euro was up 0.4% at $1.3816, while the dollar was up 0.3% against the yen at 119.25 yen.

.. . Purpose of the arrows: - projecting that DJIA, Nasdaq and S&P barometers will close higher at the end of the day. - projected consolidating barometers with limited directional action. - projecting all three barometers declining for the days.

.... Our Message Board and "Contact Us" elements are available at no cost to keep you up-to-date with timely information. Our Fantasy Hedge Fund gives you a concise overview of how investment ideas are executed. All transactions are posted on the Message Board.

View From the Bottom - A roundup of the day's performance

... August 10, 2007, 4:00pm ... Day Trader for the day shows net gain of $11,000.00. Adjustment to the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund ("SFHF") portfolio shows: (1) sold ABBI for a gain of $297,600.00; (2) sold SLXP for a gain of $40,800.00; (3) sold IFON for a loss of $3,300.00; (4) sold C for a loss of $40,800.00; (5) sold CSUN for a loss of $291,900.00. Net realized change for the day in the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio is a loss of $23,320.00, and for the month a loss of $419,100.00 , excluding unrealized gains or losses.

... August 9, 2007, 4:00pm ... Day Trader for the day shows a gain of $23,900.00. ... Adjustment to the Stocksmirf Hedge Fund ("SFHF") portfolio shows: (1) sold ACAD for a gain of $139,000.00; (2) sold AYSY for a loss of $2,500.00; (3) sold HPC for a loss of $1,600.00; (4) sold STST for a loss of $257,400.00; (5) sold HLYS for a loss of $7,400.00; (6) sold AETI for a loss of $110,600.00. Net realized change for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio is a loss of $216,600.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses.

... August 8, 2007, 4:00pm ... Day Trader for the day shows no activity. ... Adjustments to the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund ("SFHF") portfolio shows: (1) sold XIONG for a loss of $78,000.00; (2) sold AXPJM.X for a loss of $10,500.00; (3) sold CQLTL.X for a gain of $248,750.00. Net realized change for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio is a gain of $160,250.00.. For the month of August '07 to date SFHF shows a loss of $185,110.00..

... Total SFHF portfolio gains on initial capital of $2,500,000.00, including unrealized losses of $234,712.28, from 10.06.06 to 07.31.07 is $11,376,052.14.

 

 
best idea

... August 10, 2007

... 10:42am ... SHORT PMI Group Inc. (PMI) - last 29.05 . Support at $19.50

... 10:31am ... BUY ABBI - last $22.14 . Add to position.

... 10:00am ... BUY Abraxis Biosciences (ABBI) - last $22.97 . Prior suggestion. Based on mid-term valuation ABBI is price right for future gains in a hostile market based on the issues reported (see 08.08..07 archives).

... 9:42am ... SHORT Manor Care (HCR) - last $61.03 Support at $52.00

... 9:19am ... adjusted price. AMSC - last $24.80

... 9:17am ... adjusted price CTRP - last $37.10

... 9:15am ...adjusted price. AMZN - last $73.40

... 9:11am ... SHORT The Knot Inc. (KNOT) - last $22.14 . Support at $15.25. Can execute in premarket without down tick rule.

... 8:50am ... SHORT Ctrip.com Intn'l (CTRP) - last $37.40 Support at $21.90.. Can execute in premarket without down tick rule.

... 8:42am ... SHORT Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) - last $73.00 Support at $54.75. Can execute in premarket without down tick rule.

... 8:40am ... SHORT American Superconductor (AMSC) - last $25.05 Support at $18.50. Can execute in premarket without down tick rule.

August 9, 2007

... 1:30pm ... BUY Citigroup Inc. (C) - last $47.51 . C is a multibank holding company, offering financial services to customers in the United States and internationally. A value play based on oversold condition. EXIT POINT $51.50 in near term. Closed out

... 9:34am ... notice Opening on IFON - last $2.87. Closed out

.... 7:30am ... BUY Infosonics Corp (IFON) - last $2.91 . IFON distributes wireless handsets and accessories in Latin America and the United States. New and better product mix including multimedia based i500 and i230 that offer consumers a compelling cellular phone option in the Central American market . The phones will offer improved gross margins, as sales ramp-up in the back half of the year. In addition, the GSM multiple-band functionality makes these true world-phones, both beneficial for traveling customers, and providing InfoSonics the potential for future geographic expansion. With upgrade and replacement purchases increasing, IFON should surprise with forward guidance when announced after the close today. With 7.3 million of true float, 8% short position, trading at 8 times forward P/E, IFON can explode on the upside. IFON is a reasonable risk situation based on improving fundamentals and evolving business plan, if executed as proposed, the stock has above average near and mid-tem potential.

August 8, 2007

.   ... 7:30am ... BUY Abraxis Biosciences Inc. (ABBI) - last $21.16. ABBI is in the development, manufacture, and marketing of injectable products for the treatment of cancer and other life-threatening diseases. The company plans to separate its hospital products business from its proprietary drugs business, creating two separate publicly traded companies by the third quarter of '07. Abraxis shareholders will receive one share in each of the two companies. The hospital-products company, which makes indictable drugs, will be called APP Inc. The proprietary product unit will be called Abraxis BioScience, and focus on developing the company's "nab" technology platform and the development of cancer drugs. The company has lined up $1.45 billion in credit, with $1 billion slated for use by Abraxis and a portion used to pay down existing debt. As separate public companies the combined market value should increase by 70%. As a long term play the combined companies are worth $49. With an excellent drug pipeline, superior fundamentals and capable management, ABBI is well position for sustained growth and defensive for a rocky general market. Closed out.

  .... 7:30am ... BUY Argon ST, Inc. (STST) - last $21.06. STST is a systems engineering, development, and services company, provides command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance systems and services to defense and intelligence customers .Total backlog at end of last quarter was $309.3 million, representing a 41% increase in backlog over the last twelve months. With earnings due of the 9th, STST should beat consensus by 15% and at 16 times projected forward earnings, a move to the $24-$26 is likely in the near term. Closed out

... 7:30am ... SHORT Hillenbrand Industries Inc. (HB) - $65.01. HB manufactures and sells medical technologies and related services to the health care industry worldwide. With profit margin growth limited, HB appears over priced on a fundamental basis, while the technical's suggest limited upside. Contract to the $54-$58 range can be triggered by the company's earnings report due August 9th. EXIT POINT set at $57.

Ticker
Last Trade
Direction
Entrance Point
Exit Point
ABBI
$21.16
$21.16
closed out at $26.02


P/E Ratio: n/a
Forward P/E Ratio: 18.6
Float Shares2: 17.3 M - true
Company Guidance: *
Recommendation3: *
Support4: 19.93 near term
Resistance5: 29.97
Under Accumulation6: yes
Under Distribution7: no

 
today's action

... DAY TRADER

... August 10, 2007

... 10:54am ... COVER BGC - last $62.41. Take loss.

... 10:53am ... COVER NVDA - last $42.60. Take profit.

... 10:33am ... SHORT #2 on BGC - last $61.59

... 10:11am ... SHORT Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) - last $43.27

... 10:00 am ...COVER BGC - last $60.80 . Take profit.

... 9:48am ... SHORT General Cable (BGC) - last $62.05. Limited support, decline to $58 likely.

August 9, 2007

... 2:18pm ... COVER #2 on SNDK - last $56.68 Wash

... 2:18pm ... COVER #3 on HOG - last $58.01. Unable to track where the size is coming from. Take profit.

... 2:01pm ... SHORT #3 on HOG - last $58.25

...1:58pm ... SHORT #2 on SNDK - last $56.76

...1:17pm ... COVER #2 on HOG - last $57.67 Take profit

... 1:10pm ... COVER SNDK - last $56.61 . Take profit

... 12:38pm ... SELL CROX - last $54.97 . Take loss.

... 12:28pm ... BUY CROX - last $55.07. Under buying interest.

... 12:26pm ... SHORT #2 on HOG - last $57.93

... 12:20pm ... SHORT Sandisk Corporation (SNDK) - last $57.11 . After day's gain, under liquidation with limited support.

... 12:15pm ... COVER #4 on CROX - last $54.55 Take profit.

... 12:05pm ... COVER HOG - last $57.98 Take profit

.... 11:53am ... SHORT #4 on CROX - last $54.97

... 11:39am ... SHORT Harley Davidson (HOG ) - last $58.33Failed to hold interim support. Next level $57.20.

.... 11:35am ... COVER #3 on CROX - last $54.90 Take profit.

... 11:07am .. SHORT #3 on CROX - last $55.66

... 11:01am ... COVER #2 on CROX - last $55.77 Take profit.

... 10:35am ... SHORT #2 on CROX - last $56.43

... 10:23am ... COVER CROX - last $55.32 . Surprising interest on buy side. Take profit.

... 10:09am ... SHORT Crocs Inc. (CROX) - last $55.80 On reduced buying interest in weak market.

.... From the SFHF portfolio to closeout unsettled positions

... August 10, 2007

... 10:48am ... SELL China Sunergy Company (CSUN) - last $8.79. Take loss

... 9:24am ... adjusted price ABBI - last $26.02.

... 9:05am ... SELL Citigroup (C) - last $46.15. Take loss.

... 8:57am .... partial portfolio liquidation at the market - (1) Salix Pharm (SLXP) - last $12.14. Take profit. ; (2) Abbraxix Bio (ABBI) - last $24.16. Take profit.; (3) Infosonic (IFON) - last $2.58. Take loss.

August 9, 2007

... 9:47am ... closeout price: (2) AETI - $7.33.

... 9:42am ... SELL TTI Tech (TTI) - last $20.93. Originally suggested at $19.57 on 08.03.07. Take profit.

... 9:34am ... closeout prices: (1) ACAD - $16.51; (3) ASYS - $10.73; (4) HPC - $21.08; (5) STST - $16.77; (6) HLYS - $11.10.

... 9:15am ... - (1) SELL ACAD ; (2) SELL AETI; (3) SELL ASYS ; (4) SELL HPC; (5) SELL STST; (6) SELL HLYS.

___________________

Net liquidation value of Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund (SFHF) portfolio for the period ending 07.31.07 ............. 11,610,764.00

REALIZEDGAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ........................ ......... $277,601.00

REALIZED GAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio. ...............................$338,049.00

REALIZEDGAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ...... ......................... $371,020.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY '07 in the SFHF portfolio .....................................$615,500.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY '07 in the SFHF portfolio ....................$1,092,241.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH '07 in the SFHF portfolio ......................... $2,941,500.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE APRIL '07 to JUNE '07 in the SFHF portfolio ............................$2,540,068.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR JULY 07 to date in the SFHF portfolio ................................................$934,785.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST 07 to date in the SFHF portfolio .................$419,100.00

UNREALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) in the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio.

August 10, 2007, 4:00pm ................. $181,300.00

August 9, 2007, 4:00pm ................... $412,871.09

August 8, 2007, 4:00pm ....................$487,120.00

August 7, 2007, 4:00pm ....................$601,094.06

August 6, 2007, 4:00pm ................$1,013,100.10

August 3, 2007, 4:00pm ................... $867,150.14

August 2, 2007, 4:00pm ................... $512,976.15

August 1, 2007, 4:00pm ....................$442,649.99

July 31, 2007, 4:00pm .......................$234,712.28

__________________________________

Use archives for prior Dartline Summaries and Best Ideas ..

Certain suggestions are considered a primary risk situation and before a commitment is undertaken, as the custom with all ideas suggested therein, consult with your financial adviser or broker.

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