Beat The Dart Masthead
BTD_Menu
 
 
 
 
 


First Look | View From the Bottom | Best Idea | Today's Action
 

first look
Dartline™

 

represents immediate change - scroll down.

August 9, 2007, 8:30am

... -- S&P 500 index futures substantial lower points after major French bank said it was freezing three of its asset-backed securities funds that have had struggled to find liquidity in the U.S. subprime mortgage market As predicted in this column, worldwide liquidity causes intangibles to contract - stocks are the biggest intangibles out there. Watch 1475 as technical support, a break would drive the index to test recent lows of July 18 at 1533. Maintain balanced attack with downside bias.

... 7;30am ... The Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 20.78 to 1,497.49, to establish its biggest three-day point gain since October 2002. Stocks jumped from positive results in the technology arena and the Fed's words said the economy should keep expanding. However, a late-day plunge and revealed investors' short fuse. With sentiment able to turn on a dime, you must remain flexible and trade what's available, while keeping a watchful eye on the tape. Spinning up and down like a yo yo in recent weeks on worries that borrowing will get tougher because of losses in the subprime mortgage market, has truly created trading opportunities on both sides. Change your upside resistance point to 1524.31 (July 25th level), while maintaining support at 1475. Don't fight the tape. ... The dollar was sidelined on news that central banks overseas were raising key interest rates or possibly a rate hikes in the near future. The euro was up 0.4% at $1.3816, while the dollar was up 0.3% against the yen at 119.25 yen.

.... August 8, 2007, 4:00pm ... ...At 1,497.40 the S&P 500 index close maintains upside momentum.

... S&P 500 index failed to hold 1490 predicts weakness and downward test at 1775. Index must close above 1775 to remain positive. Take profits, reduce laggards.

... error in transmission. ... 7:30 am ...Excellent sign for the S&P 500 index to closed above 1775, at 1476.22. Look for more gains as the Federal Reserve assured investors that the economy should keep growing moderately. Whether it's true or not remain immaterial. Follow the tape, and trade the market on both sides. Right now the delicate balance between jobs, wages and equities are being offset by higher energy price and weakening consumer liquidity. Further weakness in consumer spending would make equities expensive and subject them to a deeper correction. Beware of the October winds

August 7, 2007, 7:30am .... The S&P 500 Index closed at 1,467.67 34.61 to create stability after last week's huge losses. With the extreme volatility, change the trading range from 1435 to 1495, and use that zone to plan participation on both sides of the market. Apply patients, take profits, reduce positions and conserve cash is the game plan since credit worries haven't disappear in a day. .. Wall Street's favorite barometer of investor fear, the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) fell as U.S. stocks surged. The VIX closed at 22.94, down 8.82 percent after posting a 52-week high earlier in the session at 26.47, its highest level in four years. The index acted as if all of the financial worries over the past few months evaporated overnight.

.. . Purpose of the arrows: - projecting that DJIA, Nasdaq and S&P barometers will close higher at the end of the day. - projected consolidating barometers with limited directional action. - projecting all three barometers declining for the days.

.... Our Message Board and "Contact Us" elements are available at no cost to keep you up-to-date with timely information. Our Fantasy Hedge Fund gives you a concise overview of how investment ideas are executed. All transactions are posted on the Message Board.

View From the Bottom - A roundup of the day's performance

... August 9, 2007, 4:00pm ... Day Trader for the day shows a gain of $23,900.00. ... Adjustment to the Stocksmirf Hedge Fund ("SFHF") portfolio shows: (1) sold ACAD for a gain of $139,000.00; (2) sold AYSY for a loss of $2,500.00; (3) sold HPC for a loss of $1,600.00; (4) sold STST for a loss of $257,400.00; (5) sold HLYS for a loss of $7,400.00; (6) sold AETI for a loss of $110,600.00. Net realized change for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio is a loss of $216,600.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses.

... August 8, 2007, 4:00pm ... Day Trader for the day shows no activity. ... Adjustments to the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund ("SFHF") portfolio shows: (1) sold XIONG for a loss of $78,000.00; (2) sold AXPJM.X for a loss of $10,500.00; (3) sold CQLTL.X for a gain of $248,750.00. Net realized change for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio is a gain of $160,250.00.. For the month of August '07 to date SFHF shows a loss of $185,110.00..

... August 7, 2007, 4:00pm ... Day Trader for the day shows net gain of $57,800.00. Adjustment to the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund ("SFHF") portfolio shows: (1) closed out of AHM for a loss of $790,000.00; (2) sold AHS for a gain of $15,800.00. Net realized change for the day in the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio is a loss of $716,400.00, and for the month a loss of $457.030.00, , excluding unrealized gains or losses.... error in transmission .. No posting for 08.07.07 until after the day's close.

... Total SFHF portfolio gains on initial capital of $2,500,000.00, including unrealized losses of $234,712.28, from 10.06.06 to 07.31.07 is $11,376,052.14.

 

 
best idea

... August 9, 2007

... 1:30pm ... BUY Citigroup Inc. (C) - last $47.51 . C is a multibank holding company, offering financial services to customers in the United States and internationally. A value play based on oversold condition. EXIT POINT $51.50 in near term.

... 9:34am ... notice Opening on IFON - last $2.87.

.... 7:30am ... BUY Infosonics Corp (IFON) - last $2.91 . IFON distributes wireless handsets and accessories in Latin America and the United States. New and better product mix including multimedia based i500 and i230 that offer consumers a compelling cellular phone option in the Central American market . The phones will offer improved gross margins, as sales ramp-up in the back half of the year. In addition, the GSM multiple-band functionality makes these true world-phones, both beneficial for traveling customers, and providing InfoSonics the potential for future geographic expansion. With upgrade and replacement purchases increasing, IFON should surprise with forward guidance when announced after the close today. With 7.3 million of true float, 8% short position, trading at 8 times forward P/E, IFON can explode on the upside. IFON is a reasonable risk situation based on improving fundamentals and evolving business plan, if executed as proposed, the stock has above average near and mid-tem potential.

August 8, 2007

.   ... 7:30am ... BUY Abraxis Biosciences Inc. (ABBI) - last $21.16. ABBI is in the development, manufacture, and marketing of injectable products for the treatment of cancer and other life-threatening diseases. The company plans to separate its hospital products business from its proprietary drugs business, creating two separate publicly traded companies by the third quarter of '07. Abraxis shareholders will receive one share in each of the two companies. The hospital-products company, which makes indictable drugs, will be called APP Inc. The proprietary product unit will be called Abraxis BioScience, and focus on developing the company's "nab" technology platform and the development of cancer drugs. The company has lined up $1.45 billion in credit, with $1 billion slated for use by Abraxis and a portion used to pay down existing debt. As separate public companies the combined market value should increase by 70%. As a long term play the combined companies are worth $49. With an excellent drug pipeline, superior fundamentals and capable management, ABBI is well position for sustained growth and defensive for a rocky general market.

  .... 7:30am ... BUY Argon ST, Inc. (STST) - last $21.06. STST is a systems engineering, development, and services company, provides command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance systems and services to defense and intelligence customers .Total backlog at end of last quarter was $309.3 million, representing a 41% increase in backlog over the last twelve months. With earnings due of the 9th, STST should beat consensus by 15% and at 16 times projected forward earnings, a move to the $24-$26 is likely in the near term

... 7:30am ... SHORT Hillenbrand Industries Inc. (HB) - $65.01. HB manufactures and sells medical technologies and related services to the health care industry worldwide. With profit margin growth limited, HB appears over priced on a fundamental basis, while the technical's suggest limited upside. Contract to the $54-$58 range can be triggered by the company's earnings report due August 9th. EXIT POINT set at $57.

Ticker
Last Trade
Direction
Entrance Point
Exit Point
ABBI
$21.16
$21.16
*


P/E Ratio: n/a
Forward P/E Ratio: 18.6
Float Shares2: 17.3 M - true
Company Guidance: *
Recommendation3: *
Support4: 19.93 near term
Resistance5: 29.97
Under Accumulation6: yes
Under Distribution7: no

 
today's action

... DAY TRADER

... August 9, 2007

... 2:18pm ... COVER #2 on SNDK - last $56.68 Wash

... 2:18pm ... COVER #3 on HOG - last $58.01. Unable to track where the size is coming from. Take profit.

... 2:01pm ... SHORT #3 on HOG - last $58.25

...1:58pm ... SHORT #2 on SNDK - last $56.76

...1:17pm ... COVER #2 on HOG - last $57.67 Take profit

... 1:10pm ... COVER SNDK - last $56.61 . Take profit

... 12:38pm ... SELL CROX - last $54.97 . Take loss.

... 12:28pm ... BUY CROX - last $55.07. Under buying interest.

... 12:26pm ... SHORT #2 on HOG - last $57.93

... 12:20pm ... SHORT Sandisk Corporation (SNDK) - last $57.11 . After day's gain, under liquidation with limited support.

... 12:15pm ... COVER #4 on CROX - last $54.55 Take profit.

... 12:05pm ... COVER HOG - last $57.98 Take profit

.... 11:53am ... SHORT #4 on CROX - last $54.97

... 11:39am ... SHORT Harley Davidson (HOG ) - last $58.33Failed to hold interim support. Next level $57.20.

.... 11:35am ... COVER #3 on CROX - last $54.90 Take profit.

... 11:07am .. SHORT #3 on CROX - last $55.66

... 11:01am ... COVER #2 on CROX - last $55.77 Take profit.

... 10:35am ... SHORT #2 on CROX - last $56.43

... 10:23am ... COVER CROX - last $55.32 . Surprising interest on buy side. Take profit.

... 10:09am ... SHORT Crocs Inc. (CROX) - last $55.80 On reduced buying interest in weak market.

August 8, 2007

... 3:06pm ... notice HLYS transfer to SFHF portfolio. Clearly oversold, especially with excellent fundamentals and unique product line. HLYS reported strong domestic sales, growing demand in Europe and early deliveries of its fall product line, topped expectations. Analysts polled by Dartline expected profit of 42 cents per share, on sales of $73.3 million. However, it was the guidance for the third quarter that hurt the stock when management anticipates earnings per share of 28 to 30 cents on sales of $55 million to $58 million. Analysts expectations were to high that earnings would be 38 cents per share on sales of $68.4 million. Management's numbers are conservative.

... 2:48pm ... BUY Heely's Inc (HLYS) - last $11.84 . After 45% decline HLYS looks oversold.

 

.... From the SFHF portfolio to closeout unsettled positions

... August 9, 2007

... 9:47am ... closeout price: (2) AETI - $7.33.

... 9:42am ... SELL TTI Tech (TTI) - last $20.93. Originally suggested at $19.57 on 08.03.07. Take profit.

... 9:34am ... closeout prices: (1) ACAD - $16.51; (3) ASYS - $10.73; (4) HPC - $21.08; (5) STST - $16.77; (6) HLYS - $11.10.

... 9:15am ... partial portfolio liquidation at the market - (1) SELL ACAD ; (2) SELL AETI; (3) SELL ASYS ; (4) SELL HPC; (5) SELL STST; (6) SELL HLYS.

August 8, 2007

... 3:30pm ... partial portfolio liquidation - (1) SELL XING - last $9.90; (2) SELL AXPJM.X- last $2.75

... 2:46pm .... special notice - Due to error in transmission this posting was made after the close on 08.07.07 at 5:30 pm, and not all viewers had access of this fact. - Closed out entire position in American Homes (AHM), representing 400,000 shares at average cost of $1.95, representing a loss of $780,000.00.

... 2:28pm ... SELL CQLTL.X Aug '07 $60. strike puts - last bid $11.10. . Originally suggested at $1.85 on 07.24.07. Take profit.

___________________

Net liquidation value of Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund (SFHF) portfolio for the period ending 07.31.07 ............. 11,610,764.00

REALIZEDGAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ........................ ......... $277,601.00

REALIZED GAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio. ...............................$338,049.00

REALIZEDGAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ...... ......................... $371,020.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY '07 in the SFHF portfolio .....................................$615,500.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY '07 in the SFHF portfolio ....................$1,092,241.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH '07 in the SFHF portfolio ......................... $2,941,500.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE APRIL '07 to JUNE '07 in the SFHF portfolio ............................$2,540,068.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR JULY 07 to date in the SFHF portfolio ................................................$934,785.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST 07 to date in the SFHF portfolio .................$395,780.00

UNREALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) in the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio.

August 9, 2007, 4:00pm ................... $412,871.09

August 8, 2007, 4:00pm ....................$487,120.00

August 7, 2007, 4:00pm ....................$601,094.06

August 6, 2007, 4:00pm ................$1,013,100.10

August 3, 2007, 4:00pm ................... $867,150.14

August 2, 2007, 4:00pm ................... $512,976.15

August 1, 2007, 4:00pm ....................$442,649.99

July 31, 2007, 4:00pm .......................$234,712.28

__________________________________

Use archives for prior Dartline Summaries and Best Ideas ..

Certain suggestions are considered a primary risk situation and before a commitment is undertaken, as the custom with all ideas suggested therein, consult with your financial adviser or broker.

.......Note: Changes will be instantly broadcast on our Message Board. Log-in, it's free.

 


 

BeatTheDart.com offers a quick guide to update all commentaries relating to entrance and exit points. Now you are able to quickly bring into focus events that affected your investment resources. Use this important tool when considering asset redeployment or to modify capital decisions. Indeed, most investments are sensitive to timing, and accordingly many unforeseen developments can have a direct correlation to profits or losses. BeatTheDart.com will attempt to access events using avail bale information and our database. Since BeatTheDart.com relies on pattern recognition systems and probabilistic averages, all new information has a direct relationship to what has been previously reported. Thus , the information is only unique at the moment retrieved. The objective is to update, refine and present known facts that may have been deleted or unknown at an earlier date. The intent is simple..BeatTheDart.com does not report history and attempts to accurately access the present as it relates to the future. Events and circumstances are considered based on the most likely conclusions from a given set of fact and probability theory. BeatTheDart.com does not profess to be analysts, prophets or Wall Street wizards. Most stock recommendations of others have hidden agendas and reasons unrelated to the best interests of the recipient. BeatTheDart.com uses all available facts and are merely summarized from a common sense perspective. Emotional factors and unrelated circumstances are removed from the equation, making the reporting unbiased. The philosophy behind the web text is to accumulate available evidence, present it in a simple format, and offer it for you to judge; to assess and most assuredly to use prudence and with sound judgment .
Remember: knowledge can be communicated; wisdom is your department.


 

 

 

60-day Summary Commentary

60-day summary message board fantasy hedge fund