Beat The Dart Masthead
BTD_Menu
 
 
 
 
 


First Look | View From the Bottom | Best Idea | Today's Action
 

first look
Dartline™

 

represents immediate change - scroll down.

August 2 , 2007, 7:30am

...... S&P 500 index closed at 1,465.81 10.54 to create a technical base to build further gains from. Stocks ended a wild ride solidly higher as the final hour provided an opportunity for bargain-hunters to jumping into an oversold market after a choppy day fueled by discomfort over the shaky housing and credit markets. Whether it lasts is immaterially providing you focus on the technical indictors of 1450 to 1472. The S&P needs upside confirmation from 1472 to warrant a long bias. ... Factory growth in United States slowed more than expected in July, while a key housing statistic appears suspect, created further anxieties about the economy.The Institute for Supply Management reported that its U.S. manufacturing index slid to 53.9, down from June's 14-month high of 56 and below Dartline's projection of 54.3. Look for further weakness in the next three quarters and the only reason why the number isn't lower remains the war in Iraq.

... August 1, 2007, 3:50pm ... The S&P 500 closed at 1,465.81 10.54 +0.72% and insured support above 1450 when the level was covered. .... The S&P 500 index is below the 200-day moving averages at 1445.09, representing a major sell signal. ... 7:30am ... The S&P 500 Index closed 1455.27 18.64 (1.26%), as 1472 becomes the new upside test. Only a few point separates technical disaster from the index falling below its 200-day moving average at 1450, and therefore too much uncertainty for the market to trade up with conviction. Use patients, take profits, reduce positions and conserve cash is the game plan ... Liquidations from U.S. stock funds totaled $3.03 billion in June, versus $10.1 billion in May. Cash in stock funds at the end of June stood at 3.6% of assets, about the same as in May and near the low end of the range in recent years. Not a current problem, yet one that can create a major selling wave if investors get a bit more nervous, especially as crude oil topping $75 a barrel heading towards $100. ... Crude oil futures climbed above $78 a barrel , a record closing for a benchmark contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The previous record close was $77.03, recorded July 14, 2006. ... August reformulated gasoline climbed 5.52 cents, or 2.7%, to close at $2.1408 a gallon, and August heating oil ended at $2.10 a gallon, up 3.49 cents. September reformulated gas closed up 4.67 cents at $2.1059, while September heating oil added 4.01 cents to close at $2.1232. Right now, consumers have not been fazed by high prices at the pumps. What would the deal be at $81-$82.50 within the next 30 days -- (without a supply disruption from any geopolitical or weather event) --? The consumer will suffer, not only from the pumps, but indirect costs from a goods or services relying on petroleum. Hyper-inflation will make subprime loan delinquency a mere hiccup.

... July 31, 2007, 3:22pm .... Failure of S&P 500 index to return to break even for the day, will pull the market lower. At 1472, a technical barrier becomes resistance. As indicated, trade both sides, but consider a short basis. ... 8:30am .... Core consumer inflation increased 0.1% for the fourth consecutive month in June, pushing the yearly gain in core inflation down to the lowest level in three years, the Commerce Department is good for stock - price index rose 1.9% in the past year, the lowest inflation in three years, and just within the Federal Reserve's unofficial comfort zone of 1% to 2% for core inflation. Core inflation excludes volatile food and energy prices. Overall inflation also increased 0.1% in June, the lowest monthly inflation since November. Overall inflation is up 2.3% in the past year. The Federal Reserve has said that an acceleration of inflation remains the chief risk to a stable economy. The Fed will remain on inflation alert until moderate inflation is sustained over a long period.What the deal about oil - Does higher oil prices create inflation? Something stinks at Stockrock! ... However, as you plan to selective participate on both sides of the market maintain a balance view while reducing exposure to the financial sector, taking profits and eliminating laggards that lack a definitive story.

. .. . Purpose of the arrows: - projecting that DJIA, Nasdaq and S&P barometers will close higher at the end of the day. - projected consolidating barometers with limited directional action. - projecting all three barometers declining for the days.

.... Our Message Board and "Contact Us" elements are available at no cost to keep you up-to-date with timely information. Our Fantasy Hedge Fund gives you a concise overview of how investment ideas are executed. All transactions are posted on the Message Board.

View From the Bottom - A roundup of the day's performance

... August 2 , 2007, 4:00pm ... Day Trader for the day shows net gain of $92,540.00. Adjustment to the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund ("SFHF") portfolio shows: (1) sold AHM for a gain of $132,000.00. Net realized change for the day in the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio is a gain of $224,540.00, and for the month is $279,645.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses.

... August 1, 2007, 4:00pm ... Day Trader for the day shows a gain of $58,405.00. ... Adjustment to the Stocksmirf Hedge Fund ("SFHF") portfolio shows: (1) cover short on EXP for a gain of $32,500.00; (2) sold AHM for a gain of $39,000.00; (3) sold FEIC for a loss of $74,800.00. Net realized change for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio is a gain of $55,105.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses.

. .... July 31, 2007, 4:00pm ... Day Trader for the day shows net gain of $12,600..00 ... Adjustments to the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund ("SFHF") portfolio shows: (1) no liquidations. Net realized change for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio is a gain of $12,600.00. For the month of July '07 a gains are $934,785.00, while unrealized losses are $234.712.78, for net gain of portfolio value of $700,072.22.

.... Total SFHF portfolio gains on initial capital of $2,500,000.00, including unrealized losses of $234,712.28, from 10.06.06 to 07.31.07 is $11,376,052.14.

 

 
best idea

... August 2, 2007

... 3:51pm ... BUY #2 on AHM - last $1.31.

... 3:23pm ... BUY American Home Mg (AHM) - last $2.13. Add to the transfer position to SFHF portfolio.

...1:55pm ... BUY Salix Pharma Ltd. (SLXP) - last $11.88. SLXP creates prescription drugs used in the treatment of various gastrointestinal diseases in the United States. Ifaxan treats diarrhea caused by E. coli, should increase sales by 35%; Colazal treats ulcerative colitis, should increase sales by 25%. Economy of scale should enhance bottom line while reducing costs. Increase spending on R&D will continue to benefit long term prospects. Consider SLXP an earnings play - due today. The company reaffirmed its outlook for full-year profit of 85 cents per share on revenue of $260 million. Near term speculation to $13.50.

... 1:06pm ... BUY China BAK Battery Inc. (CBAK) - last $3.50. Average down against prior entrance point. Earnings due tonight which should include upside guidance.

.... 12:26pm ... SHORT #3 on Navteq Corporation (NVT) - last $65.90. Average down against prior entrance point.

... 11:54am ... BUY Stanley Inc. (SXE) - last $18.19. SXE provides information technology (IT) services and solutions to the United States defense and federal civilian government agencies. With record high backlog primarily from Iraqi contracts, improving balance sheet and conservative fundamentals, SXE can expand its business model by acquisitions without effecting growth, especially in the private sector. SXE is a mid -term value play with limited downside risk.

August 1, 2007

... 3:37pm ... BUY China Sunergy Company (CSUN) - last $10.90 . Add to position as an 'average down' commitment.

... 3:27pm ... COVER CompuCredit Corp (CCRT) - last $ 24.80. Unusually volume pattern not determined. Take profit.... 11.01am .... SHORT CompuCredit Corp (CCRT) - last $25.15 . CCRT subsidiary that had invested in a managed account with United Capital suffered realized losses of $15.2 million in the second quarter, net of interest income. The unit also experienced $10.2 million in unrealized losses in the period. At the end of the first quarter, CompuCredit's subsidiary had $70.5 million invested in the United Capital account. That means the unit had a loss of roughly 36% in the second quarter. The losses came mainly from positions in Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) and Collateralized Mortgage Obligations (CMOs). It also took a hit from positions in an ABX index, which tracks mortgage-backed securities (MBSs). CCRT remains exposed to pre-tax losses of $45 million from investments in third-party asset-backed securities such as CDOs and MBSs. With contracting portfolio values and less liquidity CCRT will have problems meeting even minor expectations. A prudent SHORT candidate in the current market environment.

 

Ticker
Last Trade
Direction
Entrance Point
Exit Point
SXE
$18.19
$18.19
$21.50


P/E Ratio: 33
Forward P/E Ratio: 16
Float Shares2: 6.98M - true
Company Guidance: *
Recommendation3: *
Support4: 17.90 near term
Resistance5: 19.91
Under Accumulation6: limited
Under Distribution7: no

 
today's action

... DAY TRADER

... August 2, 2007

... 3:13pm ... transfer long position in AHM to SFHF portfolio.

.... 3:01pm ... COVER #3 on CLX - last $57.38. Take profit

... 1:58pm ... SHORT #3 on CLX - last $57.68 .

... 1:22pm ... BUY #3 on AHM - last $2.22 .

... 12:43pm ... COVER AHM - last $2.67 Take profit.

... 12:19am ... SHORT AHM - last $3.03

... 12:18pm ... SELL #3 on MA - last $143.65 Take profit

... 12:04pm ... SELL #2 on AHM - last $3.44. Take profit.

... 11:30am ... SELL #1 on CLX - last $57.38 . Take profit.

.... 11:14am .. BUY #3 on MA - last $141.48

... 11:13am .. BUY #2 on AHM - last $1.97

... 11:13am ... SELL #2 on MA - last $142.669 . Take loss.

... 10:53am ... SELL AHM - last $2:03 . Take profit.

... 10:51am ... BUY #1 on CLX - last $57.07 . Finally found support with buying interest.

... 10:48am ... BUY #2 on MA - last $144.4101. Above day's resistance. Trade to $149 likely.

... 10:39am ... COVER #2 on CLX - last $57.09 Take profit.

... 10:29am ... SELL MA - last $142.40 . Take profit

... 10:14am ... SHORT #2 on CLX - last $58.02.

... 10:05am ... COVER CLX - last $ 57.69 . Take profit.

... 10:02am ... BUY Mastercard Inc. (MA) - last $140.86 Found support for a test to $143.

... 9:40am ... BUY American Home Mg (AHM) - last $1.65. Excellent buying interest by size. Under accumulation.

... 9:31am .. SHORT Clorox Company (CLX) - last $58.60 . Missed on numbers as stock lacks buyers.

August 1, 2007

... 3:30pm ... COVER TUP - last $31.46. Take profit

... 2:58pm ... BUY #3 on AHM - last $1.38.

... 2:56pm ... transfer NVT to SFHF portfolio.

... 2:52pm... notice Change price on TUP to $32.04 from 32.14.

... 2:40pm ... SHORT Tupperware Brands (TUP) - last $32.14 After six point advance, TUP is under pressure.

.... 1:56pm ... BUY AHM - last $1.5201 Steady accumulation and bigger size suggests important base has developed.

... 1:47pm ... SELL AHM - last $1.45. Take profit.

.... 12:47pm ... COVER SHORT on AHM and BUY AHM - last $1.30 .

... 12:36pm ... SHORT AHM - last $1.40

... 11:59am ... SELL AHM - last $1.1927. Take profit.

... 11:56am ... transfer LFUS to SFHF portfolio.

... 11:41am ... price notice AHM to $0.99 from $0.97..

... 11:26am ... transfer AHM to SFHF portfolio.

... 11:17am ... COVER AMGN - last $51.70.

... 10:28am ... SHORT Navteq Corp (NVT) - last $60.60

... 10:21am ... SHORT #3 on LFUS - last $34.18

... 9:50am ... COVER AMGN - last $50.40 Take profit

... 9:46am ... SHORT #2 on LFUS - last $32.79

.... 9:40am ... BUY American Home Mg (AHM) - last $0.97

... 9:33am ... price notice - LFUS - last $31.50.

... 9:32am ... price notice - AMGN - last $52.50.

... 9:27am ... SHORT AMGEN Inc. (AMGN) - premarket last bid - $52.52. Under pressure as support with limited buying interest.

... 9:10am ... SHORT Littlefuse Inc. (LFUS) - premarket last bid - $31.40. Failed to performance on guidance. Technicals weakness as the day progresses.

 

.... From the SFHF portfolio to closeout unsettled positions

... August 2, 2007

.... 9:31am ... SELL American Home Mg (AHM) - last $1.63 . Take profit

August 1, 2007

... 3:27pm ... COVER CompuCredit Corp (CCRT) - last $ 24.80. Unusually volume pattern not determined. Take profit.

.... 10:09am ... COVER Eagle Materials (EXP) - last $42.01. Take profit.

... 9:32am ... SELL American Home Mortg (AHM) - last $1.27. Take profit. Possible revisit.

... 9:01am ... SELL FEI Company (FEIC) - premarket last - $27.05. Failure to support guidance. Take loss.

________________________

Net liquidation value of Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund (SFHF) portfolio for the period ending 06.30.07 ............. 10,675,979.00

REALIZEDGAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ........................ ......... $277,601.00

REALIZED GAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio. ...............................$338,049.00

REALIZEDGAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ...... ......................... $371,020.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY '07 in the SFHF portfolio .....................................$615,500.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY '07 in the SFHF portfolio ....................$1,092,241.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH '07 in the SFHF portfolio ......................... $2,941,500.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE APRIL '07 to JUNE '07 in the SFHF portfolio ............................$2,540,068.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR JULY 07 to date in the SFHF portfolio ................................................$934,785.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST 07 to date in the SFHF portfolio .................$279,645.00

UNREALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) in the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio.

August 2, 2007, 4:00pm ................... $512,976.15

August 1, 2007, 4:00pm ...................$442,649.99

July 31, 2007, 4:00pm ........................$234,712.28

__________________________________

Use archives for prior Dartline Summaries and Best Ideas ..

Certain suggestions are considered a primary risk situation and before a commitment is undertaken, as the custom with all ideas suggested therein, consult with your financial adviser or broker.

.......Note: Changes will be instantly broadcast on our Message Board. Log-in, it's free.

 


 

BeatTheDart.com offers a quick guide to update all commentaries relating to entrance and exit points. Now you are able to quickly bring into focus events that affected your investment resources. Use this important tool when considering asset redeployment or to modify capital decisions. Indeed, most investments are sensitive to timing, and accordingly many unforeseen developments can have a direct correlation to profits or losses. BeatTheDart.com will attempt to access events using avail bale information and our database. Since BeatTheDart.com relies on pattern recognition systems and probabilistic averages, all new information has a direct relationship to what has been previously reported. Thus , the information is only unique at the moment retrieved. The objective is to update, refine and present known facts that may have been deleted or unknown at an earlier date. The intent is simple..BeatTheDart.com does not report history and attempts to accurately access the present as it relates to the future. Events and circumstances are considered based on the most likely conclusions from a given set of fact and probability theory. BeatTheDart.com does not profess to be analysts, prophets or Wall Street wizards. Most stock recommendations of others have hidden agendas and reasons unrelated to the best interests of the recipient. BeatTheDart.com uses all available facts and are merely summarized from a common sense perspective. Emotional factors and unrelated circumstances are removed from the equation, making the reporting unbiased. The philosophy behind the web text is to accumulate available evidence, present it in a simple format, and offer it for you to judge; to assess and most assuredly to use prudence and with sound judgment .
Remember: knowledge can be communicated; wisdom is your department.


 

 

 

60-day Summary Commentary

60-day summary message board fantasy hedge fund