... The S&P 500 Index closed at 1,482.66 35.43 (2.33%) after sliding to a low of 1,465 earlier on. The next flag on the downside leg is 1456.38, a level reached on February 22, 2007. Within 1456 to 1520 should be the new channel as the general market backs and fills, attempting to regain its footing. However, a disturbing pattern has developed since February when consistently increasing volume is created by sellers who are managing distribution into buyers. ... With worries about credit quality and availability mounting, the federal funds futures market at the Chicago Board of Trade are be priced as if a rate cut is probable. Don't embrace the noise or believe a mere cut in the prime rate would cause stocks to rise. At the root of collapsing stock values are credit market worries, high energy prices and the housing sector as the easy money days are quickly evaporating. The put-call ratio — the volume of bearish put options vs. the volume of bullish calls — swelled to 1.32, the highest levels of the year. The Chicago Board Options Exchange's volatility index surged 21 percent to 21.95, its highest since June 13, 2006, as global equity markets are not attracting buyers at current prices. ... Clues to the nervousness can be traced to the U.S. dollar, which dropped against the yen as investors looked elsewhere to park their surplus paper. As the U.S. equity markets declined, investors jumped into Japanese currency, unwinding the so-called yen carry trade.The carry trade refers to investors borrowing currencies at cheap interest rates in one place, in this case in Japan, to invest in higher-yielding currencies -- ie., where interest rates are higher -- in this case the U.S. dollar. Indeed, unwinding of carry trades has hit the markets rather than then broad dollar selling as the yen became the paper of choice. ... But don't blame the dollar for all the market's problems. A sharp reduction in global risk appetite was documented by huge hedge fund losses. Reduced international liquidity and the unwillingness to hold long term fixed yield instruments can be the wedge to drive all values lower, including equities, real estate and commodities.

July 26, 2007 ...... an unsolicited message from our member redbarron, posted on the Message Board at 2:10 pm -

My two brokers told me to HOLD as I kept referring  to what you said on Dartline. They said in essence the site was XXXXXX. I didn't listen and sold out of their picks and my own that I thought had value but were lagging. You saved me a great deal of money and now I'm sitting with cash and  peace of mind. Whatever you do, keep up the good work. It's truly amazing, you hear all the so call experts and they talk a good game, but in the end they are bullshit. Cramer and all the talking heads are just that. Hot air with no substance. Only this site calls it like it is, and in the end, the Dart is the best place to got a real picture. Thanks for coming back. Even today, I'm making money on your shorts and a few of my own. If you didn't give me the direction I would be like all the rest - crying in my beer. You should see this place, they're all in max-distress. Thanks Stocksmirf for giving us as the say the real deal.

... July 26, 2007 ... 12:35 pm ... At 1484.30 the S&P 500 index is down 34.21, and below critical support of 1490. Further declines likely. Prudent to take profits while conversing cash.

.... 8:45am ... Non-defense capital goods orders excluding transportation fell 0.7% after falling 1.5% in May. Not a good sign for stocks. A lower stock open today, increasing concerned about rising oil prices and the corporate and mortgage lending markets. Watch S&P 500 index support test at 1490. Bias today on the short side; take profits and reduce or eliminate holdings on laggards - remain defensive with limited long-side commitments.

... 7:30 ... The S&P 500 Index closed at 1,518.09 7.05+0.47%. Remaining above 1510 is important, while testing higher ground allows for trading both sides of the market with limited exposure. The market displayed little reaction to a report showing U.S. sales of existing homes fell more than forecast in June. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported its index dropped 3.6% for the week ended July 20 , with a 5.0% drop in the purchase index and a 1.4% decline in the refinancing index. ... Treasuries drifted to close with small gains after news of further delay for a $12 billion offering of Chrysler Corporation bonds. Worries about deal-financing added more volatility into a market as banks and brokers continue to hide their true debt exposure that eventually will rock the stock market.

... July 25, 2007, 7:30am ... The S& P 500 index suffered a steep declines 30.53, or 1.98 percent, to 1,511.04, and within striking distance of interim support at 1510. A failure to hold 1490 would create a major sell alert. Declining issues outnumbered advancers by nearly 10 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, as consolidated volume came to a heavy 4.06 billion shares, compared with 3.09 billion shares on Monday. Profit-taking was the flavor of the day. Yesterday's decline maintained a pattern of back-and-forth finishes. For the sixth straight session, the market has risen one day and fallen the next. Apparently, the market doesn't know what it wants. ... Stepping aside from the noise for whatever happens, the stock market will react to second half of the year company earnings reports regardless that the pundits say. Indeed, the steady flow of lackluster earnings reports has made the market more skittish that a cat on a hot tin roof. ... When Countrywide Financial posted sharply lower second-quarter profit and slashed its earnings forecast, its shares declined $3.56, or 10.5 percent, to $30.50. That was enough to trip the bulls. Thus, the largest U.S. mortgage lender instantly became the manometer of the housing industry, which has continued to slump amid delinquencies and defaults in subprime loans.The problems with subprime mortgage lenders have periodically rattled Wall Street this year, leading to sudden plunges as investors feared that the sector's problems would spread to other parts of the economy. The market has generally recovered in a short period of time, yet it remains vulnerable to any bad news about mortgages, personal credit and housing. ... The dollar dropped to a new all-time low against the euro and a 26-years against the British pound on fears that the troubled housing market will damage the broader U.S. economy. The U.S. Index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of the world's major currencies, tumbled to a fresh 15-year low at 80.015. Additionally, interest-rate differentials has moved against the dollar, as the Fed keeps its target rate on hold (5.25%) as other major central banks are tightening. Troubling is the rally in the yen against high-yielding currencies, including the euro, the pound, the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar, as steep losses in U.S. stocks prompted an unwinding of carry trades, in which investors borrow funds in low-yielding currencies and reinvest in higher-return currencies and assets elsewhere. Wholesale liquidation of U.S. securities would create an international domino affect to contract investment solvency, and foster repercussions of a fallout extending beyond the U.S. ... Short interest on the Nasdaq rose 1.8 percent in the July reporting period, signaling a rise in bearish sentiment even as the stock market was hitting record levels. As of mid-July, the number of short-selling positions rose to 9.34 billion shares from 9.17 billion shares in the previous month.The Nasdaq's short ratio, or the average number of days it would take to cover the outstanding short positions, rose to 4.5 days, from 4.35 days in June. Investors who sell securities "short" profit from betting stocks will fall. Short-sellers borrow shares and then sell them, waiting for the stock to fall so they can buy the shares back at the lower price, return them to the lender and pocket the difference .Short interest in the stock market is often a gauge of the level of skepticism among investors, with rising short interest signaling more skeptics. July was the fifth straight month of increases in the exchange's overall short interest positions, but the pace of the increases has started to slow in the last few months. Short sellers came back into the market after a sharp fall in stocks in February but have continued building positions even as the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit 14,000. The trend suggests a downward phase in market direction.

. .. . Purpose of the arrows: - projecting that DJIA, Nasdaq and S&P barometers will close higher at the end of the day. - projected consolidating barometers with limited directional action. - projecting all three barometers declining for the days.