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July 26, 2007

...... an unsolicited message from our member redbarron, posted on the Message Board at 2:10 pm -

My two brokers told me to HOLD as I kept referring  to what you said on Dartline. They said in essence the site was XXXXXX. I didn't listen and sold out of their picks and my own that I thought had value but were lagging. You saved me a great deal of money and now I'm sitting with cash and  peace of mind. Whatever you do, keep up the good work. It's truly amazing, you hear all the so call experts and they talk a good game, but in the end they are bullshit. Cramer and all the talking heads are just that. Hot air with no substance. Only this site calls it like it is, and in the end, the Dart is the best place to got a real picture. Thanks for coming back. Even today, I'm making money on your shorts and a few of my own. If you didn't give me the direction I would be like all the rest - crying in my beer. You should see this place, they're all in max-distress. Thanks Stocksmirf for giving us as the say the real deal.

 

... July 26, 2007 ... 12:35 pm ... At 1484.30 the S&P 500 index is down 34.21, and below critical support of 1490. Further declines likely. Prudent to take profits while conversing cash.

.... 8:45am ... Non-defense capital goods orders excluding transportation fell 0.7% after falling 1.5% in May. Not a good sign for stocks. A lower stock open today, increasing concerned about rising oil prices and the corporate and mortgage lending markets. Watch S&P 500 index support test at 1490. Bias today on the short side; take profits and reduce or eliminate holdings on laggards - remain defensive with limited long-side commitments.

... 7:30 ... The S&P 500 Index closed at 1,518.09 7.05+0.47%. Remaining above 1510 is important, while testing higher ground allows for trading both sides of the market with limited exposure. The market displayed little reaction to a report showing U.S. sales of existing homes fell more than forecast in June. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported its index dropped 3.6% for the week ended July 20 , with a 5.0% drop in the purchase index and a 1.4% decline in the refinancing index. ... Treasuries drifted to close with small gains after news of further delay for a $12 billion offering of Chrysler Corporation bonds. Worries about deal-financing added more volatility into a market as banks and brokers continue to hide their true debt exposure that eventually will rock the stock market.

... July 25, 2007, 7:30am ... The S& P 500 index suffered a steep declines 30.53, or 1.98 percent, to 1,511.04, and within striking distance of interim support at 1510. A failure to hold 1490 would create a major sell alert. Declining issues outnumbered advancers by nearly 10 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, as consolidated volume came to a heavy 4.06 billion shares, compared with 3.09 billion shares on Monday. Profit-taking was the flavor of the day. Yesterday's decline maintained a pattern of back-and-forth finishes. For the sixth straight session, the market has risen one day and fallen the next. Apparently, the market doesn't know what it wants. ... Stepping aside from the noise for whatever happens, the stock market will react to second half of the year company earnings reports regardless that the pundits say. Indeed, the steady flow of lackluster earnings reports has made the market more skittish that a cat on a hot tin roof. ... When Countrywide Financial posted sharply lower second-quarter profit and slashed its earnings forecast, its shares declined $3.56, or 10.5 percent, to $30.50. That was enough to trip the bulls. Thus, the largest U.S. mortgage lender instantly became the manometer of the housing industry, which has continued to slump amid delinquencies and defaults in subprime loans.The problems with subprime mortgage lenders have periodically rattled Wall Street this year, leading to sudden plunges as investors feared that the sector's problems would spread to other parts of the economy. The market has generally recovered in a short period of time, yet it remains vulnerable to any bad news about mortgages, personal credit and housing. ... The dollar dropped to a new all-time low against the euro and a 26-years against the British pound on fears that the troubled housing market will damage the broader U.S. economy. The U.S. Index, which tracks the dollar against a basket of the world's major currencies, tumbled to a fresh 15-year low at 80.015. Additionally, interest-rate differentials has moved against the dollar, as the Fed keeps its target rate on hold (5.25%) as other major central banks are tightening. Troubling is the rally in the yen against high-yielding currencies, including the euro, the pound, the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar, as steep losses in U.S. stocks prompted an unwinding of carry trades, in which investors borrow funds in low-yielding currencies and reinvest in higher-return currencies and assets elsewhere. Wholesale liquidation of U.S. securities would create an international domino affect to contract investment solvency, and foster repercussions of a fallout extending beyond the U.S. ... Short interest on the Nasdaq rose 1.8 percent in the July reporting period, signaling a rise in bearish sentiment even as the stock market was hitting record levels. As of mid-July, the number of short-selling positions rose to 9.34 billion shares from 9.17 billion shares in the previous month.The Nasdaq's short ratio, or the average number of days it would take to cover the outstanding short positions, rose to 4.5 days, from 4.35 days in June. Investors who sell securities "short" profit from betting stocks will fall. Short-sellers borrow shares and then sell them, waiting for the stock to fall so they can buy the shares back at the lower price, return them to the lender and pocket the difference .Short interest in the stock market is often a gauge of the level of skepticism among investors, with rising short interest signaling more skeptics. July was the fifth straight month of increases in the exchange's overall short interest positions, but the pace of the increases has started to slow in the last few months. Short sellers came back into the market after a sharp fall in stocks in February but have continued building positions even as the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit 14,000. The trend suggests a downward phase in market direction.

... July 24, 2007, 3:42pm ... S&P 500 index dropped below 1510 to establish primary indicator that a further correction is likely. 1490 is critical support. If S&P falls below that number consider increasing cash position to 60% - reduce laggards, and questionable holdings... 7:30am ...Yesterday's run up from Friday's retrenchment demonstrates market resiliency, yet the consensus is raising questions of whether the short-lived nature of this year's collective pullbacks suggested that stocks has not prepared a sufficient base to move higher. Totally bunk! At 1,541.56 the S&P 500 index 7.46 had clearly kept the trading range of 1520 to 1590 in view. A test of 1520 must wait for another day. Indeed, the resumption of the market's rise absent any major economic news had temporarily quieted concerns about questionable subprime loans. So what's the deal? Global growth continues to accelerate, cheap U.S. dollars makes exports competitive and U.S. stocks still at cut-rates. ... Acquisition activity reflects our position that liquidity is the primary factor to drive the market higher as private equity, corporate cash and international investors like U.S. stocks. ... Remain positive, while participating in both sides of the market.

. .. . Purpose of the arrows: - projecting that DJIA, Nasdaq and S&P barometers will close higher at the end of the day. - projected consolidating barometers with limited directional action. - projecting all three barometers declining for the days.

.... Our Message Board and "Contact Us" elements are available at no cost to keep you up-to-date with timely information. Our Fantasy Hedge Fund gives you a concise overview of how investment ideas are executed. All transactions are posted on the Message Board.

View From the Bottom - A roundup of the day's performance

...... July 26, 2007, 4:00pm ... Day Trader for the day shows net gain of $25,000.00 ... Adjustments to the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund ("SFHF") portfolio shows: (1) sold HLIT for a gain of $20,500.00; (2) sold options in CATHP.X for a loss of $72,800.00; (3) sold options in GOPHV.X for a loss of 166,000.00; (4) sold AME for a loss of $72,000.00; (5) sold options in UTXHO.X for a loss of $15,000.00, (6) sold options in IHHHN.X for a loss of $270,000.00; (7) sold NOVC for a loss of $58,500.00; (8) sold TRFX for a gain of $7,200.00; (9) sold SXT for a loss of $800.00; (10) sold NOVA for a loss of $22,800.00; (11) sold M for a loss of $31,800.00; (12) sold options in APVHG.X for a gain of $227,500.00. Net realized change for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio is a loss of $374,900.00, and for the month to date a gain of $665,385.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses .

... July 25, 2007, 4:00pm ... Day Trader for the day shows net gain of $31,200.00. Adjustment to the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund ("SFHF") portfolio shows: (1) covered short on CEC for a gain of $82,000.00. Net realized change for the day in the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio is a gain of $113,200.00, and for the month is $1,040,285.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses. Net unrealized SFHF portfolio loss is $745,499.81.

... July 24, 2007, 4:00pm ... Day Trader for the day shows a gain of $46,490.00. ... Adjustment to the Stocksmirf Hedge Fund ("SFHF") portfolio shows: (1) sold call options in EWHJ.X for a loss of $69,000.00; (2) covered short on KLAC for a gain of $16,200.00; (3) covered short on AAPL for a gain of $27,800.00; (4) sold puts in APVTI.X for a gain of $25,000.00; (5) covered short on CENX for a gain of $15,400.00. Net realized change for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio is a gain of $61,890.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses.

.... Total SFHF portfolio gains on initial capital of $2,500,000.00, including unrealized gains of $923,512.00, from 10.06.06 to 06.30.07 is $10,675.879.00.

 

 
best idea

... July 26, 2007. 7:30am. No action.

July 25, 2007... 3:40pm ... BUY in the money calls in Apple Inc (AAPL) - APVHG.X - Aug 07 strike 135 - last $9.25. Trade on earnings after the close, not on current numbers but superior guidance.

... 3:10pm .... BUY Harmonic Inc. (HLIT) - last $9.12 HLIT designs, makes and sells products and systems that deliver broadcast and on-demand video services, including digital video and high-definition television services. It also provides Internet access and telephony, as well as selling video-processing products such as encoders, decoders, multiplexers and descramblers. Its "edge" products enable channel-switching on the network, rather than at the set-top box. If earnings come in as expected, HLIT will have produced annual earnings growth of 95%. The eight analysts who cover Harmonic forecast another 40% jump in earnings to $0.52 per share in 2008. HLIT is a speculative BUY with near term EXIT POINT at $11.50.

Ticker
Last Trade
Direction
Entrance Point
Exit Point
HLIT
$9.12
$9.12
$9.12


P/E Ratio: 97
Forward P/E Ratio: 16.3
Float Shares2: 54.7 M (true)
Company Guidance: *
Recommendation3: *
Support4: 8.95 near term
Resistance5: 11.18
Under Accumulation6: yes
Under Distribution7: limited

 
today's action

... DAY TRADER

... July 26, 2007

... 3:03pm ... COVER BOBJ - last $44.35 Take profit

... 3:01pm ... COVER ATMI - last $30.42. Take profit.

.. 2:54pm ... COVER ATU - last $60.60. Take profit.

... 2:47pm ... COVER AKAM - last $37.19. Take profit.

... 2:26pm ... COVER FLIR - last $45.71. Take profit.

... 2:22pm ... SELL AKAM and SHORT - last $37.61.

... 2:08pm ... COVER AKAM and BUY - last $37.74.

... 1:20pm ... SHORT AKAM - last $37.65. Unusual selling pressure evident.

... 1:13pm ... SELL #2 on AKAM - last $37.33 . Take profit.

... 12:59pm ... BUY #2 on AKAM - last $36.88 Buying interest increased as macd improved.

... 12:45pm ... SHORT Flir Systems Inc. (FLIR) - last $46.12.

... 12:00pm ... SELL AKAM - last $36.22 . Take profit.

... 11:47am ... SHORT Actuant Corp (ATU) - last $61.40 .

... 11:37am ... notice AKAM not executed.

... 11:36am ... SELL AKAM - last $35.30.

... 11:30am ... SHORT Business Object SA (BOBJ) - last 44.36 Decline to $43 likely.

... 11:23am ... BUY Akamai Inc. (AKAM) - last $35.70 . Under accumulation after 11 point fall.

... 11:17am ... SHORT Atmi Inc. (ATMI) - last $30.61. Lacking support.

... 11:05am ... SELL SONS - last $6.11 . Didn't work. More selling likely.

... 10:54am ... BUY Sonus Network Inc. (SONS) - last $6.15. Oversold for bounce to $6.50-$6.70 range.

July 25, 2007... 2:47pm ... COVER #3 on SNA - last $55.06. Take loss.

... 2:15pm .. SHORT #3 on SNA - last $54.77 .

... 2.10pm ... COVER #2 on SNA - lat $54.44. Take loss.

... 1:56pm ... SHORT #2 on SNA - last $54.27.. Lost support in 54-25-54-40 range.

... 1:54pm ... COVER SNA - last $54.40 . Take profit.

... 1:12pm ... SELL PNRA - last $41.86. . False start - looks lower. Take loss.

... 1:00pm ... BUY Panera Bread (PNRA) - last $41.97 . Buying interest evident.

.... 11:52am ... notice Time change on ZEBA - to 11:32am from 11:52am.

... 11:46am ... SHORT Snap On Inc. (SNA) - last $57.14 . Overbought.

... 11:52am ... COVER ZEBA - last $36.02 . Take profit

... 11:27am ... SELL JOYG - last $52.12. Contracting macd. Take profit

... 11:06am ... BUY Joy Global (JOYG) - last $51.50. On oversold status.

... 10:38am ... SHORT Zebra Tech (ZEBA) - last $36.35 . Under pressure after failing to attract buying interest.

.... From the SFHF portfolio to closeout unsettled positions

... July 26, 2007

... 9:31am ... SELL Apple Inc. (AAPL) - Aug 07 calls - APVHG.X- last $13.80

... 9:07am ... to 9:55am ... (price/sale of option openings ***)

... 9:31am to 9:42am ,,,, ( price/sale under position)

... 9:00am ... SELL Macy's Inc. (M) - market order. last - $39.01

...9:00am ... SELL Novamed Inc (NOVA) - market order. last - $5.74

... 9:00am ... SELL Sensient Tech (SXT) - market order. last -$25.76

... 9:00am ... SELL Trafffix (TRFX) - market order. last - $5.87

... 9:00am ... SELL Novacea (NOVC) - market order. last - $9.00

... 9:00am ... SELL ICE Aug 07 170 call (IHHHN.X) -market order. *** $1.50

... 9:00am ... SELL UTX Aug 07 call (UTXHO.X) - market order. *** last - $1.70

... 9:00am ... SELL Ametek (AME) - market order. last - $39.33

... 9:00am ... SELL GOOG Aug '07 520 call (GOPHV.X) - market order. *** last - $8.00

... 9:00am ... SELL Cat Aug 07 80 call (CATHP.X) - market order. *** last - $1.91

... 9:00am ... SELL Harmonic (HLIT) - market order. last $9.53

July 25, 2007... 10:44am ... COVER SHORT on CEC Entertainment (CEC) - last $31.99. Originally suggested as short sale at $36.09 on 07.23.07. Take profit.

________________________

Net liquidation value of Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund (SFHF) portfolio for the period ending 06.30.07 ............. 10,675,979.00

REALIZEDGAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ........................ ......... $277,601.00

REALIZED GAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio. ...............................$338,049.00

REALIZEDGAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ...... ......................... $371,020.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY '07 in the SFHF portfolio .....................................$615,500.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY '07 in the SFHF portfolio ....................$1,092,241.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH '07 in the SFHF portfolio ......................... $2,941,500.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR APRIL '07 TO June 30 '07 in the SFHF portfolio ...............................$2,540,068.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF JULY 07 to date in the SFHF portfolio .......................$665,385.00

UNREALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) in the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio.

July 26, 2007, 4:00pm ..................... $147,649.94

July 25, 2997, 4:00pm .......................$745,499.81

July 24, 2007, 4:00pm .......................$331,388.97

July 23, 2007, 4:00pm .......................$176,399.75

July 20, 2007, 4:00pm .......................$127,299.85

July 19, 2007, 4:00pm ....................... $244,749.20

July 18, 2007, 4:00om ........................$055,650.16

July 17, 2007, 4:00pm ........................$047,129.32

July 16, 2007, 4:00pm ........................$167,849.97

July 13, 2007, 4:00pm ....................... $125,450.13

July 12, 2007, 4:00pm ........................$061,499.97

July 11, 20007, 4:00pm ......................$023,699.94

July 10, 2007, 4:00pm ........................$626,965.72

July 9, 2007, 4:00pm ......................... $938,890.13

July 6, 2007, 4:00pm ...........................$864,127.97

July 5, 2007, 4:00pm .......................... $743,900.02

July 3, 2007, 1:00pm .......................... $703,900.04

July 2, 2007, 4:00pm .......................... $858,500.04

June 29, 2007, 4:00pm .......................$712,445.00

__________________________________

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