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July 24, 2007, 3:42pm

... S&P 500 index dropped below 1510 to establish primary indicator that a further correction is likely. 1490 is critical support. If S&P falls below that number consider increasing cash position to 60% - reduce laggards, and questionable holdings.

... 7:30 ...Yesterday's run up from Friday's retrenchment demonstrates market resiliency, yet the consensus is raising questions of whether the short-lived nature of this year's collective pullbacks suggested that stocks has not prepared a sufficient base to move higher. Totally bunk! At 1,541.56 the S&P 500 index 7.46 had clearly kept the trading range of 1520 to 1590 in view. A test of 1520 must wait for another day. Indeed, the resumption of the market's rise absent any major economic news had temporarily quieted concerns about questionable subprime loans. So what's the deal? Global growth continues to accelerate, cheap U.S. dollars makes exports competitive and U.S. stocks still at cut-rates. ... Acquisition activity reflects our position that liquidity is the primary factor to drive the market higher as private equity, corporate cash and international investors like U.S. stocks. ... Remain positive, while participating in both sides of the market.

July 23, 2007, 7:30am ... The S&P 500 index closed 1,534.10 18.98 (1.22%) and finished the last week off 1.2%. A probable secondary test at 1520 is likely this week. . A further decline will trigger a major sell signal if the S&P fall below 1490. For now, be prudent, allow the dust to settle and work the edges on both sides. ... .Pundits blamed disappointing earnings from Google Inc. (GOOG) and Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), while credit concerns supplied its negative magic on financials. Take GOOG and CAT out of the equation, and focus on the credit markets worldwide, which sold off big time as government bonds became the flavor of the day. On Friday, JP Morgan said that problems associated with subprime will get worse as S&P downgraded a number of European collateralized debt obligations. Financial shares eased lower when Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned of $100 billion in losses from subprime mortgage defaults. Can the era of risk-free lending be coming to an end from meltdown in the U.S. subprime mortgage market? ... No! 40% of S&P revenues is generated overseas, large multinational companies are the true power and liquidity behind a higher stock market. ... China's central bank on Friday hiked interest rates by 0.27%, partly as a result of second quarter growth of 11.9%. World growth is merely 30% into the cycle.

... July 20, 2007, 7:30am ... The S&P 500 6.91, or 0.45 percent, to 1,553.08; its previous record of 1,552.50 occurred July 13th. Yesterday's gains extended a partial recovery that started late in Wednesday's session, when the Dow pulled itself up from a loss of 134 points to end with only a 53-point deficit. Stocks had ceded ground Wednesday after uneasiness about Bernanke's assessment of the economy. Yet, bad news means nothing to this market. Unraveling of subprime loans or the inflationary price of oil seem to be merely pinup posters to rally the troops. ... Light, sweet crude settled up 87 cents at $75.92 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after briefly touching $76 for the first time in 11 months. The market's hole cards are anticipated robust corporate earnings and interest rates in neutral at 5.25%. ... In the current market climate continue to aggressively commit assets on both sides . ... A key post stock* in our proprietary subjective probability model - IBM - jumped $4.78, or 4.3 percent, to $115.86 after the technology company said strength in its software division and an improvement in its services business helped second-quarter profits. IBM raised its profit forecast for the year. Its stock surged past an earlier 52-week high of $111.88, rising as high as $116.48.

* GEN ELECTRIC CO (GE), MERCK CO INC (MRK), MICROSOFT CP (MSFT) and WAL MART STORES (WMT) are the other post stocks that comprise a forward indicator used specifically to tract general investor sentiment.

. .. . Purpose of the arrows: - projecting that DJIA, Nasdaq and S&P barometers will close higher at the end of the day. - projected consolidating barometers with limited directional action. - projecting all three barometers declining for the days.

.... Our Message Board and "Contact Us" elements are available at no cost to keep you up-to-date with timely information. Our Fantasy Hedge Fund gives you a concise overview of how investment ideas are executed. All transactions are posted on the Message Board.

View From the Bottom - A roundup of the day's performance

... July 24, 2007, 4:00pm ... Day Trader for the day shows a gain of $46,490.00. ... Adjustment to the Stocksmirf Hedge Fund ("SFHF") portfolio shows: (1) sold call options in EWHJ.X for a loss of $69,000.00; (2) covered short on KLAC for a gain of $16,200.00; (3) covered short on AAPL for a gain of $27,800.00; (4) sold puts in APVTI.X for a gain of $25,000.00; (5) covered short on CENX for a gain of $15,400.00. Net realized change for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio is a gain of $61,890.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses.

... July 23, 2007, 4:00pm ... Day Trader for the day shows net gain of $15,700.00 ... Adjustments to the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund ("SFHF") portfolio shows: (1) covered short on BTJ for a loss of $30,900.00; (2) covered short on ISIL for a gain of $46,200.00; (3) sold AKS for a gain of $11,200.00. Net realized change for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio is a gain of $42,200.00, and for the month to date a gain of $865,195.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses .

July 20, 2007, 4:00pm ... Day Trader for the day shows net gain of $9,090.00. Adjustment to the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund ("SFHF") portfolio shows: (1) covered short on DYII for a loss of $8,100.00; (2) cover short on SYK for a gain of $2,400.00; (3) sold puts in SYKTN.X for a gain of $1,000.00, except as stated herein. Net realized gain to date for the day in the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio is a gain of $4,390.00, and for the month is $822,995.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses.

.... Total SFHF portfolio gains on initial capital of $2,500,000.00, including unrealized gains of $923,512.00, from 10.06.06 to 06.30.07 is $10,675.879.00.

 

 
best idea

... July 24, 2007

... 4:01pm ... notice Change entrance point in IHHHN.X - to $2.90 from $3.05.

... 3:38pm ... BUY call options in InterContinental Exchange (ICE) - IHHHN.X - Aug '07 $170 - last $3.05.

... 1:51pm ... SHORT Apple Inc. (AAPL) - last $139.85 . Under pressure with nervousness on earning's report. After major run up, should give back 20 points. Look at put options - APVTI.X - Aug '07 strike $145.00 - last $10.05

... 11:52am ... SHORT Century Aluminum Co. (CENX) - last $63.09. CENX produces primary aluminum in North America. It offers molten aluminum, standard-grade ingot, extrusion billet, and other value-added primary aluminum products. Contracting capacity and lower margin will apply pressure on profits. Support at $55.00. .. Check out options - Aug '07 puts $60.00 strike - CQLTL.X - last $1.85.

... 10:49am ... SHORT #2 on Illumia Inc. (ILMN) - last $43.20 . Earnings due after close will disappoint. Support near term $39.67.

.. 9:59am .. notice Change entrance point on KLAC short to $59.81 from $60.00.

... 8:58am... SHORT KLA-Tencor Corp (KLAC) - last $60.00 . Purely on a technical basis, KLAC failed to effectively challenge resistance. A decline to interim support at $55.00 is likely in near term ... 10:36am ... COVER SHORT on KLA-Tencor Corp (KLAC) - last $58.19 . Originally suggested this morning. Movement of decline suggests cover. Take profit.

July 23, 2007... 3:06pm ... SHORT CEC Entertainment (CEC) - last $36.09. CEC's valuation questionable as recent volatile consumer spending and escalating operating costs leave earnings-per-share projections at risk and share price likely to decline. Near term support at $34.59.

.... 1:48pm ... SHORT Sybase Inc. (SY) - last $24.87 . Data management software maker SY. should report ( 07.25.07) second-quarter profit declined 19 percent as higher sales failed to offset increased costs from its new mobile messaging service and charges from loss of patent dispute. Near term support at $23.16.

.... 1:18pm ... BUY #2 on AKS -last $38.66 . Add to position on evaluation.

... 1:11pm ... SHORT Snap-On Inc. (SNA) - last $50.43. SNA manufactures and markets tools, diagnostic, and equipment solutions for professional tool and equipment users. Earnings due of the 25th should not meet expectations. Under limited distribution before report suggests the number maybe known. Cover short at $45.00.

... 9:37am ... BUY AK Steel Holdings (AKS) - last 38.90. AKS produces flat-rolled carbon, stainless, and electrical steels, as well as tubular products in the United States. It manufactures flat-rolled carbon steels, including coated, cold-rolled, and hot-rolled products; and specialty stainless and electrical steels that are sold in slab, hot band, and sheet and strip forms. Fundamentals and business model excellent for mid-term buy to $45.00 with limited risk.

Ticker
Last Trade
Direction
Entrance Point
Exit Point
CEC
$36.09
$36.09
$34.59


P/E Ratio: *
Forward P/E Ratio: *
Float Shares2: 31.76 M
Company Guidance: *
Recommendation3: Downgrade to Market Perform by Morgan Keegan
Support4: *
Resistance5: *
Under Accumulation6: limited
Under Distribution7: limited

 
today's action

... DAY TRADER

... July 24, 2007

... 3:27pm ... COVER entire short position in KLAC - last $59.24. Take profit.

... 3:11pm ... COVER entire short position in EDU - last $51.40. Take profit.

... 1:23pm ... SHORT #3 on EDU - last $52.94.

... 12:06pm ... notice Change entrance point on EDU to $53.20 from $52.20.

... 11:21am .. SHORT #2 on KLAC - last $59.08 .

... 10:45am ... notice Change entrance point on EDU to $52.20.

.... 10:42am ... SHORT #2 on EDU - last $53.30 .

... 10:32am ... transfer ILMN to SFHF portfolio.

... 10:24am ... COVER EDU - last $52.60 . Take profit.

... 10:21am ... notice Change entrance price on EDU to $54.31 from $55.05.

... 9:33am ... SHORT New Oriental Ed (EDU) - last $55.05. Limited buyer interest.

.... 9:33am ... SHORT Illumia Inc. (ILMN) - last $42.54. Under minor distribution that will accelerate.

July 23, 2007... 2:17pm ... COVER entire open short position on FRPT - last $16.88. Take profit.

... 12:38pm ... SHORT #2 on FRPT - last $17.40 . Add to short position on contracting macd.

... 12:09pm ... notice Change Cover of Short Buy on LPTN to $33.57 from $33.51.

... 12:04pm ... SHORT FRPT - last $17.18..

... 12:03pm ... SELL FRPT- last $17.20 . Take profit and SHORT.

... 12:01pm .... COVER LPNT - last $33.51. Take profit.

... 11:38am ... BUY Force Protection (FRPT) - last $16.90 . Under limited accumulation to carry into 17.50-17.70 range.

... 11:14am ... SHORT Lifepoint Hosp (LPNT) - last $34.02. Failure to maintain $32.12 sets the stage for further decline.

 

.... From the SFHF portfolio to closeout unsettled positions

... July 24, 2007

... 3:55pm ... COVER SHORT on Century Aluminum (CENX) - last $61.55 . Originally suggested today at $63.09. Take profit.

... 3:16pm ... SELL put options on AAPL - APVTI.X - last $11.30 . Take profit.

... 3:15pm ... COVER SHORT on Apple Inc. (AAPL) - last $137.07 . Take profit

... 10:36am ... COVER SHORT on KLA-Tencor Corp (KLAC) - last $58.19. Originally suggested this morning. Movement of decline suggests cover. Take profit.

... 10:05am ... notice Change exit price on EWHJ.X to $0.40.

... 9:27am ... SELL call options in Edwards Lifesciences Corp (EW) - EWHJ.X - last $1.70 . Disappointing numbers suggest liquidation of position.

July 23, 2007... 3:45pm ... SELL entire position of AK Steel (AKS) - last $39.06. Even though position was suggested today, the action in last 10 minutes suggests a "crossing liquidation" not a good sign. Take profits and step back.

... 2:27pm ... BUY call options in ICE Aug 07 at $170 (IHHHN.X). - last $5.70 . Add to open option position.

... 12:27pm ... COVER SHORT on ISIL - last $30.89. Take profit.

... 12:24pm ... notice Change Short Cover Buy on BTJ to $53.36.

... 12:20pm ... COVER SHORT on BTJ - last $53.40 . Take loss.

________________________

Net liquidation value of Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund (SFHF) portfolio for the period ending 06.30.07 ............. 10,675,979.00

REALIZEDGAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ........................ ......... $277,601.00

REALIZED GAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio. ...............................$338,049.00

REALIZEDGAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ...... ......................... $371,020.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY '07 in the SFHF portfolio .....................................$615,500.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY '07 in the SFHF portfolio ....................$1,092,241.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH '07 in the SFHF portfolio ......................... $2,941,500.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR APRIL '07 TO June 30 '07 in the SFHF portfolio ...............................$2,540,068.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF JULY 07 to date in the SFHF portfolio .......................$927,085.00

UNREALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) in the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio.

July 24, 2007, 4:00pm .......................$331,388.97

July 23, 2007, 4:00pm .......................$176,399.75

July 20, 2007, 4:00pm .......................$127,299.85

July 19, 2007, 4:00pm ....................... $244,749.20

July 18, 2007, 4:00om ........................$055,650.16

July 17, 2007, 4:00pm ........................$047,129.32

July 16, 2007, 4:00pm ........................$167,849.97

July 13, 2007, 4:00pm ....................... $125,450.13

July 12, 2007, 4:00pm ........................$061,499.97

July 11, 20007, 4:00pm ......................$023,699.94

July 10, 2007, 4:00pm ........................$626,965.72

July 9, 2007, 4:00pm ......................... $938,890.13

July 6, 2007, 4:00pm ...........................$864,127.97

July 5, 2007, 4:00pm .......................... $743,900.02

July 3, 2007, 1:00pm .......................... $703,900.04

July 2, 2007, 4:00pm .......................... $858,500.04

June 29, 2007, 4:00pm .......................$712,445.00

__________________________________

Use archives for prior Dartline Summaries and Best Ideas ..

Certain suggestions are considered a primary risk situation and before a commitment is undertaken, as the custom with all ideas suggested therein, consult with your financial adviser or broker.

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