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| Dartline™ |
 represents immediate change - scroll down.
July 10, 2007, 7:30am
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... The S&P 500 index remains positive by closing at 1531.85  1.41, while the yesterday's trading range of 1527.53 - 1534.21 was disappointing, especially with profit warnings in the technology and financial sectors that capped the advance. With investors are focusing on corporate guidance, not on history, cumulative disillusionment would trigger a major sell off. ... Alcoa (AA) reported disappointing net income for the three months ended June 30 that fell to $715 million, or 81 cents a share, from $744 million, or 85 cents, in the year-ago quarter. Sales rose 3.5% to $8.1 billion, short of the level forecast by Wall Street. Analysts polled by Dartline had forecast profit of 82 cents a share on revenue of $8.32 billion. Not a good sign; yet one report doesn't make a panic. .... Remain positive, while maintaining a watchful eye to how the S&P index reacts going forward. Confirmation above the 52-week high of 1540.56 is required to insure the upside does not falter. A break below 1504.66 (07.02.07 low) would signal a near term correction. Use these perimeters to gauge your investment decisions. Take profits on overbought issues, remain defensive by eliminating laggards, while cautiously adding positions on special situations.
July 9, 2007, 7:30am ..... At 1530.44, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index is within 10 points of an all-time closing high, while last week U.S. stocks showed little upside action as rising oil prices and high bond yields concerned investors. Adding to the drama is the start of the current earnings season kicks off today with reports expected from six S&P 500 Index companies : Alcoa (AA) - last $41.78; General Electric (GE) - last $38.48; Yum Brands (YUM) - last $34.05; Pepsi Bottling Group (PBG) - last $34.52; Marriott International (MAR) - last $47.11; and M&T Bank Corp (MTB) last $108.70. The big player in this group is Alcoa, and what the company reports will set the tone for the underlying market. Dartline projects an upside surprise for Alcoa because of the weak U.S. dollar. Like many companies that make up the S&P index come from overseas, when a foreign currency is strong, the conversion of earnings from abroad translates into more dollars. Thus, it's a big factor and will give the general market sufficient rocket fuel to increase values. However, if Alcoa fails to meet expectations, look for a near trend sell-off. ... Estimates for second-quarter earnings growth as tracked by Dartline have improved to a rate of 4.7% from 3.9% on April 1, thanks mostly to upward revisions for the energy sector. The overall earnings picture appears positive, but may not be enough to help the market out of its "downward trend" this week if long-term bond yields once again rise to 5.2% or above. Good reports about the health of consumer spending, a key driver of economic and corporate profit expansion are bullish factors for equities in the mid-term. Yet, the higher yields on long-term bonds over the past month have served as a weak spot for equities because investors have been nervous about the impact of higher-bond yields on the housing market and consumer's wallets, With the majority of U.S. mortgages set at fixed rates, that could cause a more severe decline in an already sluggish housing market. As for now, follow the trend established by S&P 500 and what Alcoa does.
July 6, 2007... 10:53am ... Macy's (M) suggested at $40.07 on 07.02.07, is 2.32 and trading at $42.04 with increased volume to confirm our belief that a takeoff is likely.... 8:30 am ... Nothing happened yesterday to create problems for the upside direction of the S&P 500 index. Starting today at 1525.50, the 52-week high of 1540.56 is a mere few days away. Remain aggressive as the general market continues its rotation. ... As previously reported, the underlying strength to the equities markets can be directly traced to the ISM manufacturing index that rose in June to the highest level since April 2006. Both manufacturing and nonmanufacturing surveys point to the economy picking up momentum as the second quarter drew to a close - an encouraging sign for growth in the third quarter, and bodes well for the coming earnings session. ... New-orders index fell in June to 56.9% from 57.4% in May, and positive to maintain order growth going forward. .... A further plus for the economy was the employment index rose to 55% from 54.9% in May. .... Fourteen of 18 industries were growing in June, led by construction, real estate and entertainment. No industry was contracting.... 8:20am ... The Labor Dept. showed that 132K jobs (Dartline 125K) were added in June while payroll figures for May and April were upwardly revised to account for a net gain of 75K new jobs. Hourly earnings rose 0.3%, matching economists' forecasts and bringing the year/year rate to 3.9%, while unemployment held steady at a low 4.5% rate for a third straight month. The futures market remains indecisive following the data, still indicating a slightly lower open for equities; but bonds are decidedly weakening in response as the yield on the 10-year note (-12/32) climbs to 5.19%. ... 7:30am ... The Labor Department reports its June job figures on Friday. Dartline expects that 125,000 non-farm jobs will be added to the nation's payrolls and that the unemployment rate to be steady at 4.5 percent - excellent to maintain upside momentum for equities.
.. . Purpose of the arrows: - projecting that DJIA, Nasdaq and S&P barometers will close higher at the end of the day.  - projected consolidating barometers with limited directional action. - projecting all three barometers declining for the days.
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From the Bottom - A roundup of the day's performance |
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... July 10, 2007, 4:00pm ... Day Trader for the day shows net gain of $10,005.00 ... Adjustments to the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund ("SFHF") portfolio shows: (1) sold 10000 shares of RBN for a gain of $217,00.00. Net realized change for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio is a gain of $227,005.00, and for the month to date a gain of $264,205.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses .
... July 9, 2007, 4:00pm ... Day Trader for the day shows net gain of $8300.00. No realized gain or loss adjustment to the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund ("SFHF") portfolio, except as stated herein. Net realized gain in SFHF to date for the month of July '07 is $37,200.00, while unrealized gain in the portfolio is $938,890.13.
. ... Total SFHF portfolio gains on initial capital of $2,500,000.00, including unrealized gains of $923,512.00, from 10.06.06 to 06.30.07 is $10,675.879.00.
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.. July 10, 2007
... 9:51am ... BUY Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD) - last $13.73 . ACAD will find a partner to help develop pimavanserin, a drug could be worth close to $1 billion in sales. Shares nearly doubled in March when Acadia revealed mid-stage trial results showing pimavanserin was effective in treating schizophrenia. The company began a late-stage trial of pimavanserin in Parkinson's disease psychosis last month, and is also developing the drug for insomnia. BUY as speculative risk with limited downside. EXIT POINT $19.50 in mid-term.
July 9, 2007 ... 1:30pm ... BUY Wolverine Worldwide Inc. (WWW) - last $28.22 At 15 times forward earnings to 12.30.08, WWW is worth five points more in the current investment environment. With a true float of 27 million shares and 91% institutional holdings, the stock can react to any positive statement by management. BUY for near term move to $32.00.
... 10:42am ... BUY Helen of Troy Ltd. (HELE) - last $28.60. HELE., a personal-care and household products maker, will report earnings and surprise to upside tomorrow on expanding product lines during the year and improving fiscal 2008 guidance. The company expects a profit of $2 on revenue of more than $660 million for the year ending Feb. 28, 2008, while most analysts are looking for a profit of $1.97 on revenue of $674.5 million. More efficient manufacturing and supply chain processing to reduce product development cost and increase speed to market has started to enhance bottom line. HELE is a mid-term BUY to trade in the $35-$37 range based on forward P/E valuation of 11.55 times.
7:30am ... BUY Sensient Technologies Corporation (SXT) - last $25.74 SXT, a maker of colors, flavors and fragrances, is due to report 2007 second quarter earnings on July 16th and should beat estimates of $.43 by 15% and to raise guidance. With completion of a new $300 million revolving credit facility, replacing its $225 million unsecured facility maturing in 2012, SXT has more flexibility to drive growth. Selling at 15 times forward earnings, SXT is a value play with mid-term upside to the low 30s. Furthermore,, with limited management control and institutional ownership above 90% SXT is an excellent takeover fit for International Flavors & Fragrances *IFF) or McCormick & Co. (MKC), at 22-25 times forward earnings.
7:30am ... BUY Traffix Inc. (TRFX) - last $5.75. TRFX is a premier interactive media company with a superior business model and management dedicated to execute it. Commenting on the results for the prior quarter (02.28.07) by Mr. Jeffrey L. Schwartz, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Traffix, are telling: , "We continued our focus on growing the business, and are proud to report a return to profitability after a tough fourth quarter in fiscal 2006. We were able to grow our top line revenue by 6%, on a comparable basis, and by 5%, on a sequential basis, while improving income from operations, net income and diluted earnings per share, on both a comparable and sequential basis." Mr. Schwartz continued, "We believe the balance of fiscal 2007 will continue to be profitable, with our financial position remaining strong, and liquid, as we continue to seek out strategic opportunities that will fuel our future growth." Fundamentals are adequate with improving operating margin of 5.01% and no long term debt, TRFX is capable to expand revenue without altering bottomline performance. With a true float 9.29 million shares and institutional sponsorship increasing, TRFX is a near-term speculative BUY with EXIT at $10.50.
Ticker |
Last
Trade |
Direction |
Entrance
Point |
Exit
Point |
| SXT |
$25.74 |
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$25.74 |
* |
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| P/E Ratio: |
17.82 |
| Forward P/E Ratio: |
14.82 |
| Float Shares2: |
38.9 (true) |
| Company Guidance: |
* |
| Recommendation3: |
* |
| Support4: |
24.95 near-term |
| Resistance5: |
30.34 |
| Under Accumulation6: |
yes |
| Under Distribution7: |
no |
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... DAY TRADER
... July 10, 2007
 ... 10:57am ... SELL #3 on DEPO - last $2.143 . Take profit.
... 10:36am ... BUY #3 on DEPO - last $2.07. Buying interest accelerated.
... 10:27am ... SELL #2 on DEPO - last $2.04 . Take profit.
... 10:01am ... BUY #2 on DEPO - last $1.87. Buying interest suggest near term accumulation.
... 9:35am ... SELL DEPO - last $1.88. Not working, take loss.
... 9:15am ... BUY DepoMed Inc. (DEPO) - last $1.92 . DEPO dropped $3.12 on disappointing end results on FDA phase III trials. Oversold conditions warrants "dead cat" bounce. Trade to $2.25 as first test. High trading risk ..
July 9, 2007 ... 3:30pm ... COVER SHORT on ORBK - last $21.90 . Take loss.
... 3:17pm .... COVER SHORTS #1 and #2 on IMN - last $35.71 . Take profits.
... 12:34pm ... SHORT #2 on IMN - last $35.75 .
... 9:46am ... SHORT Orbotech Ltd. (ORBK) - last $21.86 . Trade down to $20.50 likely.
... 9:35am .... SHORT Imation (IMN) - last $36.54. Under distribution with limited buying interest.
.... From the SFHF portfolio to closeout unsettled positions
... July 10, 2007
... 10:11am ... SELL 50% of position in Robbins & Myers Inc. (RBN) - last $58.30. Originally suggested at $36.60 on March 30, 2007. Even though RBN is mid-term target to $62.50, locking in profit would be prudent.
July 9, 2007, 7:30am. No action.
___________________________
Net liquidation value of Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund (SFHF) portfolio for the period ending 06.30.07 ............. 10,675,979.00
REALIZEDGAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ........................ ......... $277,601.00
REALIZED GAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio. ...............................$338,049.00
REALIZEDGAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ...... ......................... $371,020.00
REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY '07 in the SFHF portfolio .....................................$615,500.00
REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY '07 in the SFHF portfolio ....................$1,092,241.00
REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH '07 in the SFHF portfolio ......................... $2,941,500.00
REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR APRIL '07 TO June 30 '07 in the SFHF portfolio ...............................$2,540,068.00
REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF JULT 07 to date in the SFHF portfolio .......................$264,205.00
UNREALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) in the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio.
July 10, 2007, 4:00pm .........................$626,965.72
July 9, 2007, 4:00pm .......................... $938,890.13
July 6, 2007, 4:00pm ...........................$864,127.97
July 5, 2007, 4:00pm .......................... $743,900.02
July 3, 2007, 1:00pm .......................... $703,900.04
July 2, 2007, 4:00pm ........................... $858,500.04
June 29, 2007, 4:00pm ........................$712,445.00
__________________________________
Use archives for prior Dartline Summaries and Best Ideas ..
 Certain suggestions are considered a primary risk situation and before a commitment is undertaken, as the custom with all ideas suggested therein, consult with your financial adviser or broker.
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