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| Dartline™ |
 represents immediate change - scroll down.
July 2, 2007, 7:30am
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... With the S&P 500 at 1516.69 13.37 the index has underlying support to test the 1525 range. Use this opportunity to add to existing positions, while taking profits on overbought issues. As the dollar falling to 26 year low against the British pound, and oil closing above $71 a barrel are factors the market cannot deny over the longer term. Yet, the S&P has pointed upside direction, and Dartline never questions the tape.
7:30am Upside bias with support at 1489. ... The S&P 500 index closing Friday at 1,503.35, or three points under its 50-day suggests a major stall for a second time from June's high. Thus, the index remains range bound with resistance at 1,540, while important support holds at the 1,487 June low. This is notable because the 50-day moving average is generally considered an intermediate-term trending indicator. A posture above the 50-day signals an up trend, and a stance below it, a downtrend. That means if each U.S. benchmark would break decisively under its 50-day, the U.S. markets' intermediate-term outlook would turn lower. Since Dartline projects general market direction for the extensive technical modeling from the S&P 500 index, how this primary index performs predicts the future direction for equities in the U.S. markets. On a consistency basis over the last 15 years, the S&P proved the best interim term indicate over the Dow industrials and Nasdaq by a ratio of 2.70 to 1.00. Yet even setting aside moving averages, there's a more important technical issue taking shape -- namely, the prospect of a bearish double-top formation. The pattern has taken shape with two failed tests of the June highs. Accordingly, the S&P 500 topping June 1 at 1,540 and June 15 at 1,538 , two points apart in each case, which suggests that the two peaks have come in the same general area to define a subjective pattern. Yet, the double-top formation cannot be resolved until the major benchmarks violate the June low -1,487. How the S&P acts over the next five (5) trading days will establish neat term general market direction.
.. . Purpose of the arrows: - projecting that DJIA, Nasdaq and S&P barometers will close higher at the end of the day.  - projected consolidating barometers with limited directional action. - projecting all three barometers declining for the days.
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View
From the Bottom - A roundup of the day's performance |
| ... July 2, 2007, 4:00pm .... Day Trader for the day shows a gain of $6,000.00. ... No realized gain or loss adjustments to the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund, except as stated above.
July 2, 2007, 11:35am ... As of March 31, 2007, open positions were (1) BCRX suggested as on 03.02.07 at $9.31 and $9.88 was closed out at $9.98 on 04.16.07; (2) VEGF suggested as on 02.08.07 at $0.50 was closed out on 04. 23.07 at $0.36; (3) SCT suggested as on 03.05.07 at $4.36 remains an open position; (4) FCFS suggested as on 03.26.07 at $22.16 and closed out on 06.11.07 at $25.34; (5) CVTX suggested as on 03.26.07 at $6.75 and closed out on 04.16.07 at $8.19; (6) LMRA suggested as on 03.28.07 at $5.07 and closed out 06.01. at $4.65; (7) RBN suggested as on 03.30.07 at $36.60 and remains open. (8) MOS suggested as on 03.30.07 and remains open.
... Net change of realized and unrealized gains and losses is a gain of $804,200.84 as of 07.02.07, 11:51am. Total SFHF portfolio gains on initial capital of $2,500,000.00, including unrealized gains of $923,512.00, from 10.06.06 to 06.30.07 is $10,675.879.00.
*** based on the weighted portfolio value adjusted daily.
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.. July 2, 2007
... 2:49pm ... BUY Trump Entertainment Resort Inc. (TRMP) - last $10.30. TRMP said no deal to a deal - don't believe it. Posturing suggests a deal can be had at $18.00 and the directors will buy. Dune Capital Management LP may emerge as the prime bidder. At current price, TRMP warrants consolidation play to the $14-$15 range without a deal. BUY for near-term speculative play. No EXIT POINT at this stage.
10:14am . BUY Macy's Inc. (M) - last $40.07. . M trades at 12.75 forward earnings with potential takeover value at $52.50 suggests an excellent opportunity to participate in future growth with limited downside. BUY with near term target of $52.00. Check call options MKH.X at $3.30; MKV.X at $2.75 and MKI.X at $1.55 to leverage advantage of proposed T/O.
March 30, 2007.... 12:22pm ... BUY Robbins & Myers inc. (RBN) - last $36.60. An industrial products manufacture and distributor, RBN operates under three units: Fluid Management, Process Solutions and Romaco. The Romaco unit which provides packaging and related processing for the life sciences industry is worth as a stand-alone company worth $25.00. The other units would add $23,.00, created a projected breakout value of $48.00. With a true float of 14 million shares and institutional participation increasing RBN is under further accumulation. EXIT POINT reset at $68.00. On a long term basis RBN is a perfect takeover candidate at $75.00.... 9:31 ... Opening price for MOS - $26.50. ... 9:08am ... BUY Mosaic Company (MOS) - last 26.37. Produces and markets animal feed and fertilizer products. Selling at 15 times forward earnings and a direct extension of biofuel boom MOS will benefit from trend. With limited float and increasing institutional support MOS is poised for further gains. EXIT POINT changed to $42.75.
Ticker |
Last
Trade |
Direction |
Entrance
Point |
Exit
Point |
| M |
$40.07 |
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$40.07 |
$52.00 |
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| P/E Ratio: |
19.7 |
| Forward P/E Ratio: |
12.75 |
| Float Shares2: |
459.12 M (true) |
| Company Guidance: |
* |
| Recommendation3: |
* |
| Support4: |
39.75 near-term |
| Resistance5: |
52.00 |
| Under Accumulation6: |
yes |
| Under Distribution7: |
limited |
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... DAY TRADER
... July 2, 2007
... 3:48pm ... COVER SHORT on IOC - last $24.10. Take profit.
... 12:19pm ... SHORT Interoil Corporation (IOC) - last $24.70. IOC under distribution with limited buying interest after five point run up. Cover at $23.80.
.... From the SFHF portfolio to closeout unsettled positions
... July 2, 2007, 12:08pm. .... No action.
___________________________
Net liquidation value of Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund (SFHF) portfolio for the period ending 06.30.07 ............. 10,675,979.00
REALIZEDGAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ........................ ......... $277,601.00
REALIZED GAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio. ...............................$338,049.00
REALIZEDGAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ...... ......................... $371,020.00
REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY '07 in the SFHF portfolio .....................................$615,500.00
REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY '07 in the SFHF portfolio ....................$1,092,241.00
REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH '07 in the SFHF portfolio .......................... $2,941,500.00
REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR APRIL '07 TO June 30 '07 in the SFHF portfolio ...............................$2,540,068.00
UNREALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) in the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio.
July 2, 2007, 4:00pm .......................... $858,500.04
June 29, 2007, 4:00pm ........................$712,445.00
__________________________________
Prior Dartline summaries ...
Prior Best Ideas ..
 Certain suggestions are considered a primary risk situation and before a commitment is undertaken, as the custom with all ideas suggested therein, consult with your financial adviser or broker.
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