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... DAY TRADER
 .. March 29, 2007
.... 1:35pm ... COVER SHORT on SRR - last $14.925 . Take profit.
... 9:59am ... SHORT Stride Rite Corporation (SRR) - last $16.20 . SRR appears unable to maintain price and should test $15.00.
March 28, 2007... 2:09pm ... SELL ANGO - last $18.24. Take profit... 1:27pm ... BUY Angiodyamics Inc. (ANGO) - last $17.76. Oversold after decline of $4.82 on disappointing earnings, while guidance were higher. Buying interest observed as macd improved. ANGO can trade o $19.10.... 12:22pm ... COVER SHORT on BZH - last $28.15. Take profit.... 10:11am ... SHORT Beazer Homes USA (BZH) - last $28.60. Sufficient uptick's allow shorts to be executed. Contracting volume with limited buying interest to support stock. Can trade to $27.50.
March 27, 2006... 1:01pm ... SELL CHS - last $24.82. Take loss. Contracting macd while volume contracts suggests any advance would be limited..... 9:40am .. BUY Chico's FAS Inc. (CHS) - last $24.90. Under accumulation for test to $25.50.
.... From the 60-Day Summary list
.. March 29, 2007
... 2:18pm ... SELL Family Dollar Stores (FLO) - last $29.21. Take loss.
.... 2:12pm ... SELL Medifast Inc. (MED) - last $7.12. Take profit. Originally suggested at $6.66 on 03.08.07.
... 9:57am ... SELL Stride Rite Corporation (SRR) - last $16.23. Take loss. Earnings in-line, but not good enough. Voulme contract and lack of buyers suugrsts that SRR will work lower. Consider as SHOTRT SALE candidate. See - Best Ideas.
... 9:44am ... SELL CHINA - last $9.44. Take loss. Earnings off and no excuse.
March 28, 2007... 1:01pm ... SELL Lumera Corporation (LMRA) - last $5.44. Take the profit with intent to revisit. Originally suggested at $4.60 on 03.20.07.... 10:25am ... SELL PT ULTRSHORT SP 500 (SDS) - last $58.22. Take profit..... 9:36am ... SELL HB Fuller (FUL) - last $ 26.90. Take profit. Suggested at $25.65 on 03.27.07.
March 27, 2007, 7:30am. No action.
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Net liquidation value of Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund (SFHF) portfolio for the period ending 02.28.07.........,........ $ 5,194,411.00
REALIZEDGAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ........................ ......... $277,601.00
REALIZED GAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio. ...............................$338,049.00
REALIZEDGAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ...... ......................... $371,020.00
REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY '07 in the SFHF portfolio .....................................$615,500.00
REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY '07 in the SFHF portfolio ....................$1,092,241.00
REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR MONTH OF MARCH '07 to date in the SFHF portfolio ..................... $2,714,360.00
UNREALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) in the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio.
March 29, 2007, 4:00pm ................. $746,150.00
March 28, 2007, 4:00pm ................. $759,850.31
March 27, 2007, 4:00pm ................. $601,145.76
March 26, 2007, 4:00pm ..................$707,762.25
March 23, 2007, 4:00pm ................. $652,550.19
March 22, 2007, 4:00pm ................. $807,620.07
March 21, 2007, 4:00pm ..................$1,096,912.10
March 20, 2007, 4:00pm ............... ..$724,450.09
March 19, 2007, 4:00pm ..................$603,071.12
March 16, 2007, 4:00pm ..................$594,350.09
March 15, 2007, 4:00pm ................. $1,003,073.75
March 14, 2007, 4:00pm ..................$1,771,600.06
March 13, 2007, 4:00pm ................ $2,473,399.92
March 12, 2007, 4:00pm .................$469,800.02
March 9, 2007, 4:00pm ................. $353,500.03
March 8, 2007, 4:00pm ................. $77.199.93
March 7, 2007, 4:00pm ..................$200,200.00
March 6, 2007, 4:00pm ................. $84,100.25
March 5, 2007, 4:00pm ................ $20,350.00
March 2, 2007, 4:00pm .................$21,659.74
March 1, 2007, 4:00pm ................ $05,100.00
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Prior Dartline summaries ... March 26, 2007, 7:30am. ... ... The S&P 500 index will start at 1436.11 and within the trading channel to sustain further moderate action without any major movement on either direction. Since 1415 remains near-term support there's sufficient room to continue an aggressive stance, both long and short. .... The market is showing signs of volatility as investors are optimistic that a rate cut down the road would encourage consumer spending. The "value" day this week will be Thursday when the Commerce Department issues its final measure of fourth-quarter GDP. The Street is forecasting 2.2 percent growth, in line with government's previous estimate. If the GDP is revised lower, worries would rise that core inflation - which rose 2.3 percent for the 12 months ending January, above the Fed's 1 percent to 2 percent comfort zone - is outpacing GDP growth by too much, and that the Fed might lean toward a rate hike later in the year after all to curb rising costs. Add in Friday's report on personal income and spending for February, if income and spending don't rise to 0.3 percent, the market may interpret an economic contraction. As you can determine, it's a coin flip. For now - you cannot fight the tape. Since a near-term support was established at 1415, you have a point to acknowledge and to trade against.
March 23, 2007, 7:30am .... With the S&P 500 index still in the comfort zone, the general market is supplying many looks, both long and short. At 1435.04 0.50 nothing of significance occurred to change our view that downside support at 1415 offers enough room to take reasonable risks. Even though the underlying dynamics are negative, the convincing action of the S&P index remains the only game in town. Eventually, the party will end. Hopefully, we'll be prudently positioned to take advantage and remain ahead of a major down curve. ... It is incontestable that our subjective probability model performs the best when chaos reins. For now, allow the exuberance of the equities rally across the world to percolate. Investors are recapture losses of the past month from the dovish noise from the Fed and once again becoming complacent. .... What are the negative dynamics to derail the stock market? Three factors if circumstances cause them to coalesce can derail the stock market. (1) A continuing falling U.S. dollar against international currencies, especially the euro; (2) crude oil prices above $70 per barrel; and (3) a liquidity crisis within the U.S. banking sector prompted by mortgage defaults. Climbing energy costs are directly related to less valuable U.S. dollar to pay for it creates inflation, which in turn forces the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25%. When the Fed offered a questionable bone by slightly changing the language that hinted of an interest cut, stocks rallied and presented the banking community with the possibility of more liquidity to support defunct mortgage paper. The financials, which represent 20% of the S&P 500, were the major movers, and how they go, the rest of the market follows. Thus, the stage is set for a critical disappointment. ... Enough for what will happen.
March 22, 2007, 2:40pm ... The oil closed above $62.00 a barrel, a direct result to the weakening U.S. dollar. ... 7:30am .... ...The S&P 500 index closed at 1435.04 24.10 and clearly establishes a near-term test of 1461.57. A situation difficult to comprehend considering the level of gyrations during the past month. By keeping interest rates steady and raising the possibility of a cut in the months ahead, the market heard what it wanted. Dartline still believes that the Fed cannot cut rates since a weak currency (U.S. dollar hit a two-year low against the euro and gold rose) would cause acute inflation and destabilize the economy. ... Moving to a "balanced bias" the Fed had signaled no rate increase in the near future, forecasted that inflation should receded over time and that the economy - despite strains from the housing slump and troubles facing lenders and borrowers of risky mortgages - should log reasonable growth over the coming quarters. Yet, the Fed slightly downgraded its assessment of current economic conditions, saying recent barometers "have been mixed." In contract, at its previous meeting in late January, the Fed said recent indicators :"suggested somewhat firmer economic growth." What is the truth? ... Dartline cannot fully buy Bernanke's outlook for moderate growth in the economy this year. Fears about risky mortages, economic slowdowns in international markets are still factors to warrant caution.
March 21, 2007, 2:32pm ... ... The S&P 500 index at 1425.20 14.80 sets the stage to test 1461.57. ... 7:30am .... .. Within five points to test upside resistance, the S&P 500 index finished at 1410.95 8.88. If the index closes above 1415 today, a new support level would establish an upside trend to challenge the 52 week high of 1461.57. Never fight the tape, and right now, we must go with the flow, even though overall volume is anemic and not conducive for a sustained rally. .... Wall Street was on a wild ride since the Dow plunge more than 400 points exactly three weeks ago on concerns about global financial liquidity and a meltdown in the U.S. subprime mortgage market. But the market had found support since the middle of last week and stocks rallied Monday on news of big mergers and strong performance of overseas markets. Optimism continues with the hope of more liquidity to the market with a rate cut by the Fed. Investors have concluded that the worst of the correction is behind them. Since we projected that the Federal Open Market Committee will leave the rate at 5.25%, the statement that accompanies the decision becomes the main event. For many months, the Fed stressed the need to fight inflation, even as economic data showed that the economy is slowing. Pundits are hoping for a change in sentiment for the Fed to focus on the economic growth and open the door for a rate cut later this year. ... Since the mid and long term prospects of the market are still influx, cash is not trash and to commit with a horizon longer than thirty days would not be prudent. Accordingly, remain defensive, participate in stocks with near-term exit points and take profits.
March 20, 2007, 7:30am ... ... Up 15.11 to close at 1402.06, the S&P 500 index held stout within the channel of 1375 to 1415. Even with the robust 1.09% increase the index cannot be considered in an upward phase, merely a further confirmation that the general market is attempting to consolidate. Action above 1415 is required to establish an overhead curve to warrant a new trading range even as the market endeavors to find new roots. The prior sharp break in domestic and international markets still haunted equities as if an evil monster lurked too close for comfort. The only way to shake the premonition of doom was for the market to work higher and higher. Not a realistic scenario as the Wall Street cheerleaders chanted the praises of a rosy, only-one-way economy not with a soft landing, but no landing at all. Thus, the bulls and their cohorts look to the central bank to low interest rates. "More 'cheap liquidity' in the economy means higher equity prices," say the mindless bulls. Since the market is sentiment driven any negative would appear positive and anything positive would appear absolutely buoyant, while an interest rate cut from 5.25% to 4.75% would "straighten the weakening economy." ... In reality, the paradox of a contracting economy in the U.S., robust oversea markets, creeping inflation and a five year war eating over a trillion dollars, Wall Street believes that a simple interest rate cut will make everything perfect; stocks will continue to go and the entire world will be one big happy family. Not that easy: China sits with a trade surplus of $23.8 billion, three times what economists expected in February and plans to create one of the world's largest investment funds with ramifications for global stocks, bonds and commodities markets and for how the U.S. finances its huge deficits. Indeed, without China money, breadlines would form in the U.S. and the dollar would decline 35%. ... It is not the intent to predict doom, but to offer of members and friends a "real picture" and to insure that we are not collective trapped. Preservation of capital must be practiced in all levels of the marketplace. Whether up, down or sideways, increased financial resources is the only priority behind the Dart. ... As reported many times this is not an investor's market, and must be considered a trader's vehicle, participating on both sides. The next upside target is 1415, while on the downside 1375 remains our limited security blanket.
Prior Best Ideas ..
March 26, 2007... 3:07pm ... SHORT CV Therapeutics Inc. (CVTX) - last $6.75. After declining $1.89 today, CVTX is remains under further pressure to warrant commitment as "special situation high risk" to trade down to $3.50 in near-term. note: Consult with your financial adviser before short commitment... 12:30pm ... BUY First Cash Financial Services Inc. (FCFS) - last $22.16. FCFS operates pawn shops, cash-advance stores and used car dealerships. Earnings guidance of '07 in a range of $1.25 to $1.30 per-shares and '08 forward P/E to 13 times. FCFS is a value play that a weaker economy will benefit. Institutional participation substantial. NO EXIT determined.
March 23, 2007... 3:41pm .... COVER SHORT on VG - last $3.03. VG can appeal the lower court decision and be granted a stay. Such circumstance would cause the stock to rally. Lock-in profit.... 2:10pm ... SHORT Vonage Holding Corporation (VG) - last $3.30. Recent decision by Court to issue injunction against VG over patent dispute with Verizon will push company into Chapter 11 and $0.01 per share.... 2:03pm ... BUY Tarrant Apparel Group (TAGS) - last $1.55. Designs and contract manufacturer of causal apparel. The proposed purchase of Buffalo Group will gave TAGS greater market exposure and benefit the bottom line. Financials are adequate to support increase sales. With management holding a 57% equity interest and limited float of 17.3 million shares, the stock has upside potential. . Earning due on the morning of the 26th of March and should beat expectations. No EXIT POINT determined. Note: TAGS is considered a primary risk situation and before a commitment is undertaken, as the custom with all ideas suggested therein, consult with your financial adviser or broker
March 22, 2007... 11:52am ... BUY Synnex Corporation (SNX) - last $19.51. SNX is an IT supply chain service company. At 9.7 times forward P/E SNX is a mid-term value play, especially the full integration of Link2 and PC Wholesalers. However, with earnings due after the close, SNX looks poised to increase in value to the $21.50 - $22.00 range as a near-term trade.... 9:51am ... BUY Family Dollar (FDO) - last $29.72. FDO is an earnings play to move with excellent numbers. EXIT POINT set at $31.50.
March 21, 2007... 3:27pm ... BUY Fremont General Corporation (FMT) - last $10.16. Suggested as technical trade to $13.50 over near-term. Reading between the lines of Fed's decision to keep rates at 5.25% hints to bailing out savings and loan by adding more liquidity.... 2:52pm ... BUY #2 on STEC Inc. (STEC) - last $7.74, Add to position by averaging down.... 1:16pm ... BUY ConAgra Foods Inc. (CAG) - last $24.67. Under accumulation ahead of earnings. CAG can be traded as an 'over-night' play to $26.50.... 12:54pm ... BUY 3COM Corporation (COMS) - last $3.87. With earnings due tomorrow, COMS has developed sufficient momentum to warrant near-term purchase. A key factor was completing full ownership of Huawai Tech in China to broaden its footprint and offer economy of sale production to drive future earnings. On a near-term basis COMS can pop to $4.10, while further out the stock is worth $6.00..... 9:55am ... Change limit order BUY on SRR - BUY at the market - last $17.14... Limited order at $16.95 BUY Strike Rite Corporation (SRR) - last $17.20. SRR designs and markets footwear for children and adults primarily in U.S. At 14 times forward P/E and return on equity of 11.7%, the company is well position to improve margins while broadening product lines. Institutional sponsorship current a 87% reduced the true float of 21 million shares further to create a short squeeze (6.1%) if SRR can improve on the earnings and guidance consensus. Earnings for the current quarter projected at $0.31 should surprise. BUY for near-term with EXIT POINT at $20.50.
March 20, 2007... 9:30am ... LMRA opened at $4.60..... 9:20am ... BUY Lumera Corporation (LMRA) - last pre-market 4.69. A nanotechnology play primarily in electro-optic devices, LMRA received another contract from the government, now valued at $6.9 million that represents a further confirmation of its fiber-optic technology. This step would create a commercial product to increase bandwidth at competitive costs and use lower power than current devices. Speculative BUY with EXIT POINT at $7.20 in near term
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