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Dartline™

 

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March 20, 2007, 7:30am.

Up 15.11 to close at 1402.06, the S&P 500 index held stout within the channel of 1375 to 1415. Even with the robust 1.09% increase the index cannot be considered in an upward phase, merely a further confirmation that the general market is attempting to consolidate. Action above 1415 is required to establish an overhead curve to warrant a new trading range even as the market endeavors to find new roots. The prior sharp break in domestic and international markets still haunted equities as if an evil monster lurked too close for comfort. The only way to shake the premonition of doom was for the market to work higher and higher. Not a realistic scenario as the Wall Street cheerleaders chanted the praises of a rosy, only-one-way economy not with a soft landing, but no landing at all. Thus, the bulls and their cohorts look to the central bank to low interest rates. "More 'cheap liquidity' in the economy means higher equity prices," say the mindless bulls. Since the market is sentiment driven any negative would appear positive and anything positive would appear absolutely buoyant, while an interest rate cut from 5.25% to 4.75% would "straighten the weakening economy." ... In reality, the paradox of a contracting economy in the U.S., robust oversea markets, creeping inflation and a five year war eating over a trillion dollars, Wall Street believes that a simple interest rate cut will make everything perfect; stocks will continue to go and the entire world will be one big happy family. Not that easy: China sits with a trade surplus of $23.8 billion, three times what economists expected in February and plans to create one of the world's largest investment funds with ramifications for global stocks, bonds and commodities markets and for how the U.S. finances its huge deficits. Indeed, without China money, breadlines would form in the U.S. and the dollar would decline 35%. ... It is not the intent to predict doom, but to offer of members and friends a "real picture" and to insure that we are not collective trapped. Preservation of capital must be practiced in all levels of the marketplace. Whether up, down or sideways, increased financial resources is the only priority behind the Dart. ... As reported many times this is not an investor's market, and must be considered a trader's vehicle, participating on both sides. The next upside target is 1415, while on the downside 1375 remains our limited security blanket.

March 19, 2007, 7:40am .. .. Stating the week at 1386.95 in the S&P 500 index, the general market remains within the near-term consolidation channel of 1375 to 1415. Look for modest gain, which supports by our continually preaching that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged. However, the gains may be limited until other data suggests that the economy is contracting. Stability is evident with no major deteriorating in the S&P range. On the immediate horizon is inflation pressures, which showed in an unexpected jump in the headline consumer and producer price index. Indeed, excluding food and energy, the PPI rose twice than expected to 0.4%, while the core CPI rose a modest 0.2%. The other black cloud - housing data. The biggest concern is whether or not the subprime mortgage issue will spread to other credit markets or other lenders. The Mortgage Bankers Association said new mortgage foreclosures, led by subprime loans, hit a record high in the fourth quarter as more homeowners fell behind in their mortgage payments. ... The Conference Board's report on leading indicators for February, due Tuesday, is expected to reflect a decrease of 0.3% from a 0.1% in January. Any pressure above 0.3% will spook the market. ... On Friday the report on existing home sales is due and should show a fall to 6.35 million from 6.46. A further reduction will add pressure to the mortgage market. ... The dollar fell to three-month lows against the euro and dropped against the yen. For last week, the dollar fell 1.5% versus the euro and 1.2% against the yen. The current bout of risk aversion is U.S. - centric, being attributable to fear about the U.S. subprime mortgage market will make the dollar increasingly vulnerable. A falling dollar is very dangerous to equities and if not stabilized, a powerful decline is a certainty. Yet there has been one theme that has repeated over the housing market slowdown, it's that the U.S. consumer is still hanging in there, buoyed by rising wages, solid employment and an economy still on strong underpinning. Those fundamentals appears to keep an further deterioration of the dollar limited. ... You know the agenda - remain flexible, trade the market without consideration of long term commitments, sell into rallies and reduce any position which lacks a 'special situation' story.

March 16, 2007, 7:30aam ... . ... At 1392.28 5.11, the S&P 500 index performed adequately to extent the advance for five out of the past six sections. A positive event even after the former Fed Chairman Greenspan cried about the extent of subprime mortgages to weaken other sectors of the economy, notably the struggling housing market and hemorrhaging subprime lenders. Even with his noise, the general market advanced. So what's going on? Bargain hunting maybe, especially following the 242-point drop in the Dow industrials on Tuesday? As originally suggested, our focus is much simpler. As long as the S&P index trades within the predefined channel (1375-1415) all is well at the Dart..

.. . Purpose of the arrows: - projecting that DJIA, Nasdaq and S&P barometers will close higher at the end of the day. - projected consolidating barometers with limited directional action. - projecting all three barometers declining for the days.

.... Our Message Board and "Contact Us" elements are available at no cost to keep you up-to-date with timely information. Our Fantasy Hedge Fund gives you a concise overview of how investment ideas are executed. All transactions are posted on the Message Board.

 

View From the Bottom - A roundup of the day's performance

March 20, 2007, 4:00pm. ... Day Trader for the day shows loss of $2,700.00. ... Adjustments to the 60-Day Summary list shows no activity. Net realized change for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio is a loss of $2,700.00 and for the month to date a gain of $2,764,360.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses.

March 19, 2007, 4:00pm ...Day Trader for the day shows profit of $14,190.00. ... Adjustments to the 60-Day Summary list shows no activity. Net realized change for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio ("SFHF") is a gain of $14.190.00, and for the month to date a gain of $2,767,060.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses

March 16, 2007, 4:00pm ... Day Trader for the day shows gain of $80,000.00. Adjustments to the 60-Day Summary list shows no activity. Net realized change for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio is a gain of $80,000.00, and for the month to date a gain of $2,752,870.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses.

For the fourth calendar quarter of 2006 on the SFHF portfolio. Total performance, including unrealized gains, was $1,027,724.90 on weighted capital of $4,832,125.72, representing 0.2127%. for the period ending December 31, 2006.

*** based on the weighted portfolio value adjusted daily.

 

 
best idea

.. March 20, 2007

... 9:30am ... LMRA opened at $4.60.

.... 9:20am ... BUY Lumera Corporation (LMRA) - last pre-market 4.69. A nanotechnology play primarily in electro-optic devices, LMRA received another contract from the government, now valued at $6.9 million that represents a further confirmation of its fiber-optic technology. This step would create a commercial product to increase bandwidth at competitive costs and use lower power than current devices. Speculative BUY with EXIT POINT at $7.20 in near term

March 19, 2007.... 9:11am ... CANCEL RTEC - last pre-market $17.75. Rapid pre-market ($0.90) run up changed risk/reward ratio. May pull back to warrant commitment. Remain advised.. 9:06am ,,, BUY Rudolph Technologies INC. (RTEC) - last pre-market $17.13. RTEC designs and markets control instruments for the semiconductor industry. At 12 times forward earnings and improving fundamentals, RTEC is an excellent value play for the near-term. BUY is resistance level at $20 - $20.50 range.

 

Ticker
Last Trade
Direction
Entrance Point
Exit Point
LMRA
$4.65
$4.65
$7.20


P/E Ratio: *
Forward P/E Ratio: *
Float Shares2: 9.23 M
Company Guidance: *
Recommendation3: *
Support4: 4.15
Resistance5: 9.25
Under Accumulation6: limited
Under Distribution7: limited

 
today's action

... DAY TRADER

.. March 20, 2007

... 2:13pm ... COVER SHORT on SYX - last $18.36. Take loss.

... 11:29am ... SHORT SYX - last $18.30. Under systematic distrubtion.

... 11:06am ... SELL #2 on SYX - last $18.39. Take loss.

... 10:56am .. BUY #2 on SYX - last $18.40

.... 10:43am ... SELL SYX - last $18.30. Take loss.

... 10:15am ... BUY Systemax Inc. (SYX) - last $18.50. After being off 4.72, SYX is under limited accumulation to warrant commitment for move to $19.75

March 19, 2007... 3:53pm ... COVER SHORT #3 on ACAD - LAST $13.51.... 2:48pm ... SHORT #3 on ACAD - last 13.55..... 12:56pm ... COVER SHORT #2 on ACAD - last $13.50. Take profit. Improving macd stopping decline... 11:57am ... SHORT #2 on ACAD - last $13.90.... 11:20am ... COVER SHORT on ACAD - last $13.22. Take profit.... 10:41am ... SHORT Acadia Pharma (ACAD) - last $14.20. ACAD is overbought and having problems attracting more buyers to maintain $7.45 advance.

March 16, 2007.... 1:21pm ... COVER SHORT #2 on LEND - last $11.82....12:17pm ... SHORT# 2 on LEND - last $12.13. At upside resistance.... 11:28am ... COVER SHORT on LEND - last $11.60..... 9:59am ... SHORT LEND - last $12.60. At crossover to accumulative distribution.

.... From the 60-Day Summary list

... March 20, 2007, 7:30am. No action.

March 19, 2007, 7:30am. No action.

March 16, 2007, 7:30am. No action.

___________________________

Net liquidation value of Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund (SFHF) portfolio for the period ending 02.28.07.........,........ $ 5,194,411.00

REALIZEDGAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ........................ ......... $277,601.00

REALIZED GAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio. ...............................$338,049.00

REALIZEDGAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ...... ......................... $371,020.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY '07 in the SFHF portfolio .....................................$615,500.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY '07 in the SFHF portfolio ....................$1,092,241.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR MONTH OF MARCH '07 to date in the SFHF portfolio ..................... $2,764,360.00

UNREALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) in the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio.

March 20, 2007, 4:00pm .......... $724,450.09

March 19, 2007, 4:00pm ...........$603,071.12

March 1, 2007, 4:00pm ..............$594,350.09

March 15, 2007, 4:00pm ....... $1,003,073.75

March 14, 2007, 4:00pm ........$1,771,600.06

March 13, 2007, 4:00pm ....... $2,473,399.92

March 12, 2007, 4:00pm ............$469,800.02

March 9, 2007, 4:00pm ............. $353,500.03

March 8, 2007, 4:00pm ................ $77.199.93

March 7, 2007, 4:00pm ..............$200,200.00

March 6, 2007, 4:00pm ................ $84,100.25

March 5, 2007, 4:00pm ................ $20,350.00

March 2, 2007, 4:00pm .................$21,659.74

March 1, 2007, 4:00pm ................ $05,100.00

__________________________________

Prior Dartline summaries ..... March 15, 2007, 7:30am .. ...The S&P 500 index remained above 1375 until 12:07pm and dropped within the next hour to 1365, only to quickly reverse to close at 1387.17 9.22. Such wild action was attributed to this Friday's quarterly options expiration, known as quadruple witching because the simultaneous expiration of index options, stock options, index futures and single stock future. The result created excess volatility and yesterday was no exception. Considering this conclusion, the next problem is to determine which direction the general market will go. Since the S&P 500 index closed above 1375, technical support has not been violated. On the upside, resistance at 1415 is sufficient to establish a trading channel. It remains probable that yesterday's gains would not last, but if the market shows near-term strength, 1415 becomes an important confirmation. .. Once you step back from the energy the major issue remains - Whether potential defaults by subprime borrowers will spill over into the broader economy? Yesterday's talking heads cried that the concern was overblown. Stay the course with a defensive posture, reducing any exposure lack near term potential and be prudent. ... Thursday and Friday inflations numbers are due, which might fuel concern that the Fed may not cut interest rates and loosen credit conditions to provide a needed boost to the economy. Same old story - but this time around the noise is loud enough to make believers of Wall Street pundits. The flip page - With jobs and wages still strong, the focus should be on economic growth rather than inflation, therefore, a rate cut would insure much needed liquidity into the system. As the bulls and bears fought for territory, investors are blinded by the dust. Step away from the action and allow the air to clear. The next round is next week when the Fed meets on interest rates.

March 14, 2007, 3:04pm .. ... With the S&P 500 index above 1375 a technical bounce is likely. However, maintain a low profile until further confirmation to extent of advance. Sell into strength and reduce whatever marginal positions still remaining in your portfolio. .... 7:30am ... ...The S&P 500 index is within two points of violating technical resistance at 1375. A decline below that number would signal a major shifted in sentiment, creating sufficient downward pressure to test 1290.93 (low of 08.11.06). Thus, today should give us an indication as to the extent of the damage. Closing at 1377.95 28.65, the index is below its 100 day moving average, while 1300 would be the 200-day moving average price. Therefore, the advance since September 11, 2006 to 1461.57 requires a proportionate decline within the trading ranges indicated above. Since we anticipated that any advance would be short lived, yesterday's contraction was considered within the structure of SHF portfolio. Remaining defensive, trading both sides of the market and taking advantage of special situations had worked as predicted. Now, the time is to step back and allow time and fear give us a cohesive look at the future. ... Stay true to the program outlined by the Dartline column and the portfolio decisions. As indicated below the portfolio is well positioned with an unrealized profit of $2,473,399.92. That performance was not happenstance, but created by building upon what the market offered and taking advantage of greed and fear. Our members and friends watched the decision unfold and the reasoning behind each move. At least two, three times a year, the market gives up its "gifts" and you only need to recognize the events. ... In the current environment, the cheerleaders will attempt to talk the market higher. CNBC is the worst of the bunch. Sunshine characters who continually painted a rosy picture, berry picked their guest commentators to push bullish sentiment. See how quick they back peddled? So be it. When you listen to hot air you get hot air.

Prior Best Ideas .. .March 16, 2007... 3:42pm ... COVER SHORT on NEWC - last $2.25. Treat transaction as day trade. 2:41pm ... BUY CDC Corporation (CHINA) - last $8.65. CHINA provides software, mobile applications and online gaming services. Improving fundamentals with a forward P/E of 16 times and 5.2% operating margins adds credibility to its evolving business model. Institutional participation, especially in the international markets, has created a firm support base in the current stock price range. CHINA is a near-term speculative BUY with EXIT POINT at $10.50..... 11:51am ... SHORT New Century Financial (NEWC) - last $2.54. Unrealistic value considering the underlying circumstances. 9:30am ... error in posting price on STEC - change to $8.93

. March 15, 2007 ... 1:25pm ... BUY STEC Inc. (STEC) - last $8.36. STEC is in data storage as DRAM market improving. Fundamentals excellent with forward P/E at 9 times. Institutional buyers are increasing position. STEC is under moderate distribution that caused the stock to systematically decline from the $12 range over last 3 months. BUY as near-term speculation. No EXIT POINT determined..... 11:25am ... BUY Directed Electronics Inc. (DEIX) - last $8.93. DEIX designs and market consumer electronics. With improving fundamentals and operating margins at 6.25% the company is considered a near-term value play. All though sponsorship is lacking DEIX should trade up when earnings reported tomorrow. DEIX is considered speculative risk. EXIT POINT determined at $10-12 ranges.

March 14, 2007... 3:12pm ... SHORT #3 on LEND - last $6.47.... 2:51pm ... SHORT #2 on Accredited Homes (LEND) - last $5.60. Add to short position.... 2:42pm ... SHORT #3 on American Home Mortgage Investments (AHM) - last $23.05. Add to short position on technicals. 12:52pm ... BUY AFC Enterprises Inc. (AFCE) - last $15.90. AFCE is a 'special situation' buy based on earnings and upward guidance projection due tomorrow morning. At 17 times forward earnings and limited float, while 18% short position, AFCE can create a short squeeze. EXIT POINT fixed at $17.95 - $18.50. Consider a risk play since it is general not prudent to go long in a deteriorating general market, yet the reward/reward ratio favors minor commitment. 10:05am ... SELL SHORT Washington Mutual Inc. (WM) - last $39.24. Bank and thrift holding company with major exposure in sub prime mortgage portfolio. Exit POINT not determined.

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60-day Summary Commentary

60-day summary message board fantasy hedge fund