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March 13, 2007, 7:30am

At 1406.60 the S&P 500 index 3.75 has functioned as predicted. The range 1373.97 to 1415.89 remains the runnel for more sideways action. Prudence should dominate your thinking. Since Wall Street needs confirmation to push the market either way, the so called "experts" are waiting for key inflation numbers on whether the Fed may have enough room to cut interest rate later this year. Dartline has constantly addressed this issue, and believes the Fed will do nothing. Lower rates would crush the U.S. dollar, while raising rates would drive the economic closer to recession - what would you do? ... Stick to our basic plan: (1) Consider the market as a near-term trading vehicle on both sides; (2) Remain cautious until the economic data at week's end filters out; and (3) Act exclusively on the dynamics of the S&P 500 index by using support and resistance levels to point near-term market direction.

March 12, 2007, 7:30am ... ... Closing above 1400 at 1402.85, the S&P 500 index remains within acceptable range (1373.97 - 1415.89). Whatever direction at this juncture would establish the near-term trend. Use this knowledge to :"play" the market on both sides. ... Market stability is the underlying issue as investors continue to fester. Retail sales reports are due this week which should provide how the consumer is thinking, while government's producer and consumer prices indexes may give us a hint on inflation. Job data last Friday showed that the public is still financially healthy to feed economic growth. A further conclusions will be the Commerce Department's retail sales numbers for February. Consensus suggests an increase of 0.3 per cent. ... Bottom line: the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25 percent when it convenes on March 20-21). Lots of anxiety as buyers and selling fight it out. . .. Watch VIX to measure volatility in S&P 500 index options which as gone up 50% in past two week. This trend suggests the stocks will fall. .... Remain flexible and look for "special situations" to trade the market on both sides. Taking long term positions would not be prudent.

March 9, 2007, 7:30am ... ...With the S&P 500 index closing above 1400, current at 1401.86 9.52 points, the underlying general market has more resiliency that originally predicted. Maintain interim support at 1373.97, while holding 1390 as yellow flag (representing caution). A new near-term resistance is fixed at 1415.89 (established February 28, 2007). Use this range to plan your investment decisions with volatility continues as a critical factor. Stay focused on keeping risks in check, reduce any position that fails to respond or lacks near-term potential. There are good opportunities only if you consider the current environment as a trading vehicle, and not the time to consider longer term commitments. ...Yesterday's broad advance was based on investors confident following gains in Europe and Asian markets, while the dollar moved higher against the yen and easing concerns about whether global liquidity would tighten. Good execute for the rise, but going forward requires a health economy and continued earnings growth. Dartline is eager for a signal on the health of the economy and the Labor Department's much-anticipated February employment report may lead the way. Indeed, strong employment numbers would be seen as a sign for robust consumer spending since more employment means more spending. Stay vigilant until the report is fully reviewed.

... Stock Pickers, It's Your Moment to Shine .... With the past week's volatility in the market, it's time for WSJ readers to show their mettle and get their stock picks ready for a new Investment Dartboard game. In Contest No.27, as in the past, six readers' picks will vie with a portfolio picked by Sunday Journal staffers tossing darts at the stock listing from the newspaper. The last day to enter will be Sunday, March 18. The winner among the six readers for the six months April through September 2007 wins lifetime bragging rights and a Sunday Journal tote bag. Readers and dart choices will be announced Sunday, April 8. The rules: (1) Choose just one stock from the NYSE or Nasdaq markets and send your choice via email to the sundaydartboard@wsj.com address. No entries by regular mail. (2) You must include your name, address, daytime phone number, email address. (3) Brokers and other investment professionals can't compete. (4) You must be willing to be interviewed. Good Luck!

... . Purpose of the arrows: - projecting that DJIA, Nasdaq and S&P barometers will close higher at the end of the day. - projected consolidating barometers with limited directional action. - projecting all three barometers declining for the days.

.... Our Message Board and "Contact Us" elements are available at no cost to keep you up-to-date with timely information. Our Fantasy Hedge Fund gives you a concise overview of how investment ideas are executed. All transactions are posted on the Message Board.

View From the Bottom - A roundup of the day's performance

March 13, 2007, 4:00pm ... Day Trader for the day shows no activity. Adjustments to the 60-Day Summary list shows: (1) covered 20% of short position in LEND for a gain of $212,100.00; (2) sold KR for a gain of $40,000.00. Net realized change for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio is a gain of $252,100.00, and for the month to date a gain of $1,647,420.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses.

March 12, 2007, 4:00pm. ... Day Trader for the day shows no activity. ... Adjustments to the 60-Day Summary list shows: (1) sold short and covered LEND for a gain of $153,000.00; (2) sold SDS for a gain of $7,000.00; (3) sold ROC for a gain of $5,200.00. Net realized change for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio is a gain of $165,200.00, and for the month to date a gain of $1,395,320.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses.

March 9, 2007, 4:00pm ...Day Trader for the day shows a loss of $15,900.00. ... Adjustments to the 60-Day Summary list shows: (1) sold ARG for a gain of $24,400.00; (2) sold SDS for a gain of $19,500.00; (3) sold HSOA for a loss of $4,500.00. Net realized change for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio ("SFHF") is a gain of $23,500.00, and for the month to date a gain of $1,230,120.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses.

.For the fourth calendar quarter of 2006 on the SFHF portfolio. Total performance, including unrealized gains, was $1,027,724.90 on weighted capital of $4,832,125.72, representing 0.2127%. for the period ending December 31, 2006.

*** based on the weighted portfolio value adjusted daily.

.. March 13, 2007

... 2:50pm ... SELL SHORT #2 on AHM - last $22.04. Add to short position. Contracting volume suggests pullback after unusual advance.

... 1:26pm .. SELL SHORT on American Home Mortgage Investment Company (AHM) - last 21.15. AHM is a REIT engaged in investing and creating residential mortgages, with 40% exposure on sub-prime loans. No EXIT POINT determined.

March 12, 2007... 3:01pm ... BUY Kroger Company (KR) - last $25.60. With earnings due tomorrow, KR should provide upside surprise. At 16.3 times forward earnings KR can gain traction as long terms increase holdings. EXIT POINT at $28.20.... 1:05pm ... SELL SHORT LEND - last $12.51. Contracting macd suggests lack of buyers and limited support.... 12:40pm ... COVER SOLD ON LEND - last $12.49. Take profit.... 10:03am ... SELL SHORT Accredited Home Lenders Holding Company (LEND) - last $14.02 . LEND is a sub prime mortgage lenders that has its portfolio under review - negative implications. No EXIT POINT determine.

Ticker	Last Trade	Direction	Entrance Point	Exit Point
AHM	$21.58 * average price		$21.58*	*

P/E Ratio:	*
Forward P/E Ratio:	*
Float Shares2:	44.8M with 28% short position
Company Guidance:	weaker
Recommendation3:	*
Support4:	*
Resistance5:
Under Accumulation6:	no
Under Distribution7:	yes

... DAY TRADER

.. March 13, 2007, 7:30am. No action.

March 12, 2007, 7:30am. No action.

March 9, 2007... 2:36pm ... SELL PSPT - last 14.07. PSPT unable to maintain upside momentum. Under steady distribution with limited buying interest. Take loss. ... 9:40am ... BUY PeopleSupport Inc. (PSPT) - last $14.60. PSPT declined seven-plus points after missing earnings based on currency adjustments. Oversold with likely bounce to $16.20 to $17.50 range.

.... From the 60-Day Summary list

... March 13, 2007

... 10:33am ... COVER SHORT on 20% of open position of LEND - last $5.44. Suggested at $12.51 on 03.12.07. Take profit.

... 10:31am ... SELL KR - last $26.60. Suggested $25.60 on 03.12.07. Take profit.

March 12, 2007... 10:56am ... SELL ROC - last $27.49. Take profit. ROC failed to performance on earnings growth, while management failed to discuss sale of division or return to shareholders a portion of sale a special dividend.... 9:41am .. SELL SDS - last $60.23. Take profit.

March 9, 2007... 2:18pm ... SELL ARG - last 42.17. Originally suggested at $40.95 on 03.08.07. Under limited distribution which may accelerate. Lock-in profit for future visit. ...10:46am ... SELL HSOA - last $4.64. Take loss..... 10:27am ... SELL SDS - last $60.20. Take profit.

___________________________

Net liquidation value of Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund (SFHF) portfolio for the period ending 02.28.07.........,........ $ 5,194,411.00

REALIZEDGAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ........................ ......... $277,601.00

REALIZED GAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio. ...............................$338,049.00

REALIZEDGAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ...... ......................... $371,020.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY '07 in the SFHF portfolio .....................................$615,500.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY '07 in the SFHF portfolio ....................$1,092,241.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR MONTH OF MARCH '07 to date in the SFHF portfolio ..................... $1,647,420.00

UNREALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) in the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio.

March 13, 2007, 4:00pm .... $2,473,399.92

March 12, 2007, 4:00pm ........$469,800.02

March 9, 2007, 4:00pm ........ $353,500.03

March 8, 2007, 4:00pm ........... $77.199.93

March 7, 2007, 4:00pm .........$200,200.00

March 6, 2007, 4:00pm ........... $84,100.25

March 5, 2007, 4:00pm ........... $20,350.00

March 2, 2007, 4:00pm ............$21,659.74

March 1, 2007, 4:00pm ........... $05,100.00

__________________________________

Prior Dartline summaries ..... March 8, 2007, 4:30pm ... ... Caught a whale! New Century Financial (NEW) gave us the biggest single profit to date, booking $887,920.00, excluding unrealized gain from the remaining position. The history behind the performance is straightforward: On March 6th at 11:08 am ET the originally position was taken at $5.915 as a short sell with the commentary. "Under distribution with limited upside on deteriorating fundamentals. No EXIT POINT determined." The next day, March 7th at 10:21 am ET, NEW was again suggested at $5.74. "SHORT #2 ... Under distribution as a near-term casualty of sub-prime mortgages market. A clear Chapter 11 candidate and liquidation with shareholders receiving zero. EXIT POINT $0.01." At the closed today, NEW was $3.87 when Mike O'Hare head of U.S. cash sales and trading for JP Morgan Chase & Co said, "... New Century Financial may be going bankrupt." (as reported by Jonathan Tempe of Reuters at 4:21am ET. .... The entire purpose of Beat the Dart is to offer the best information and conclusions available using subjective probability models to effectively enhance the financial resources of our members and friends. The exemplary performance speaks for itself. Not that our analysis is 100% accurate, only materially sufficient to be a useful analytical tool, second to none. No one owns and has privileges or rights to this technology other than Beat the Dart. Isolating NEW was not to boost, merely to underscore our sincere desire to be right most of the time. ... 7:30am ... .. Yesterday's technical bounce lacked follow-through. Not a good sign. Add conflicting statements from current and former Fed officials and you have the bulls and bears scrambling like two harlot in need of a john. Speaking at a conference in New York, former Fed Chairman Greenspan said that the decline in home sales has bottomed out, while Fed president Michael Moshow said that "soft economic data cast some doubt on the his previously strong outlook." The tug of words has created the volatility with no end in sight. With contracting volume and no clear direct the market can get violent, depending who has Wall Street's ear. ... Just below the surface remains the economic data, the markets in Asia and Europe, and especially the carry trade. The practice of borrowing money at lower interest rates in one country to invest in higher-yielding assets elsewhere is a precarious game. Now, as the strengthening Japanese economy has lifted both rates and the yen the result makes the yen carry trade a risky proposition. The true implications may damage the international markets beyond the major settlement date of March 31, 2007. ... A survey issued by Automatic Data Processing showed employment grew by 57,000 in February, the weakest job growth since July '03. The Fed Beige Book also presented signs of weakness. Friday will be the big day - the key employment report is due. Indeed, the pros are hesitant to take big positions ahead of the report. ... The S&P 500 index 3.44 to close at 1391.97. Remaining above 1390 was a positive event and established near-term support at 1373.97 (March 5th level). Therefore, trading with a upside bias is warranted, providing you close out positions when in doubt. Play "special situations' and ideas that have real stories. Consistent vigilance and preservation of capital are paramount.

March 7, 2007, 7:30am ... ... You can't fight the tape! Advancers outpaced decliners 4-to-1 on the Nasdaq and 5-to-1 on the NYSE. Underscoring the quick change in sentiment were decliners of 19% and 14% on the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) and VXN (CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index) These investor fear gauges spiked lower, which suggests investors were actively buying call options in anticipation of enhanced fundamental underpinning to the market. Maybe not! Fundamentals looking forward: durable-goods new order figure showed a 7.8% decline in January; non defense ex-aircraft capital-goods orders, a key barometer of business capital spending, declined 6% in January and fell in the red on a year/over/year bias for the first time since the 2003 Iraq invasion. Dartline predicts that by late summer the U.S. economy would experience a ruff landing and profits would likely contract as risk-aversion returns. ... All things considered, yesterday's action suggests that gunslingers have taken over the market. Dow up 1.30%, Nasdaq 1.90% and S&P 500 1.55%. So, what's the deal - do we jump into with eyes closed and buy, buy, buy? No! Just follow the game plan and focus on what S&P 500 index does. A near-term support maintained on the 5th of March at 1373.97 for the S&P becomes our new level, while 1435 represents upside resistance. If the lower range holds, the general market will trade higher. The probability it would not, and test 1360. Since the downside bias is greater, identifying a "special situation" long may be difficult. Therefore, in this current environment, buy stocks for long term appreciation would not be practical, while shorts can offer better consistency. As declared - Prudently buy and short trading stocks, and treat the market as a short term investment vehicle.

March 6, 2007, 7:30am ... ... The S&P 500 index slipped 13.05 to close at 1374.12, near the bottom of the trading range - 1373.97/1391.86. Support at 1360.98, representing the low of November 3, 2006, should be near-term support and important number to determine the extent of the deterioration. More volatility ahead while the market establishes a base zone to work up from. At 1360 stability is essential. Bond prices were moderate as the 10-year Treasury note yield was 4.51 percent - good sign as investors haven't rushed to safe-haven assets. The dollar was higher against other major currencies including the yen. Going forward, the international markets gained, breaking a five day losing streak, which will improve sentiment for U.S. equities. Prudently buy trading stocks, and treat the market as a short term vehicle.

Prior Best Ideas .. March 9, 2007... 4:01pm ... error in posting - SDS was suggested as BUY at $59.89.... 3:52pm .. BUY SDS - last $58.89. S&P 500 index had difficult moving above 1407. Limited upside. 3:23pm ... BUY Rockwood Holdings Inc. (ROC) - last $27.36. ROC manufactures and markets specialty chemicals. Its recent sale of 78% interest in like sciences chemical business generated $425 million Euros. The sale allows ROC to focus on higher profit sections. Financials are sound with a forward P/E of 15 times. Management committed to enhance shareholder value by increasing profit margin while broadening their product base. Moderate institution support likely to improve. BUY as a trading vehicle to the $29.50 to $31.29 range.... 2:49pm .. BUY call options in AMGN - April '07 call strike price $60.00 (YSSDL.X) - last ask $2.45.

.March 8, 2007... 3:04pm ... SHORT #2 on NEW - last $4.26. Limited buying interest, maybe short covering. (transferred from Trade Day - posted in error)... 1:31pm ... SHORT NEW - last $5.08. Failed to hold interim low. NEW is under increasing distribution in last 15 minutes to suggest that buyers are giving up. (Covered short at $3.81 at 2:15pm - posted under 60-Day Summary since the intent was to hold the position over 24 hours,)... 12:02 ... BUY PT ULTRASHORT SP 500 (SDS) - last $59.81. S&P 500 index failed top hold 1407. Move below 1403 likely, especially with uncertainty with tomorrow's employment numbers. 9:30am ... ARG opened at $40.95.... 7:30am ... BUY Airgas INC (ARG) - last $39.45 (buy at the market). Short term technical trade to $42.50 - $44.00 range. Under accumulation with limited downside.

March 8 , 200arch 7, 2007... 3:00pm (as posted on Message Board) ... BUY Medifast Inc. (MED) - last $6.88 Oversold after lower guidance. Fundamentals excellent and MED represents a near-term trade. No EXIT POINT determined. ... 10:21am ... SHORT #2 on New Century Financial (NEW) - last $5.74. Under distribution as NEW represents a new term casualty of sub-prime mortgage market. A clear Chapter 11 candidate and liquidation with shareholders receiving zero. EXIT POINT $0.01.7

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BEAT THE DART is a classic term originally applied in 1898 when J.P. Morgan threw a dart at the stock table page of the New York Times. Whatever the dart hot, he purchased the stock and made a fortune. In time others used the procedure with startling results. The dart picks beat professional analysts 65% of the time!
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1 Based on market conditions and other factors previewed in Best Ideas, changes can happen at any time. Accordingly, continue to log-in on a regular basis to maintain maximum performance.
2 Float - Available stock position in the hands of the general public of the total outstanding.
3 Institutional recommendations during the last 30 days.
4 Under technical analysis the term 'support' refers to a point in the stock's price that is immediately maintained and usually suggests an entrance point to purchase.
5 Under technical analysis the term 'resistance' suggests that a point in the stock's price has been reached and further gains are temporarily unlikely.
6 Under Accumulation occurs when abnormal buying in a particular stock takes place, and suggests that inside information may be at play and anticipates future price appreciation.
7 Under Distribution suggests that insiders and others are stealth fully selling on the belief that lower stock prices will occur.
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