Beat The Dart -"Picking Stocks the Old-fashioned Way"

S&P 500 index found interim strength at 1400 and triggered buying interest. However, further weakness is likely and don't be fooled by the upside action. Sell long positions without "story" to conserve cash. ... 10:00 ... ... S&P 500 index support re-set at 1300. Key indicator at 1300 is needed to stabilize broader market. ..... 9:00am ... S&P 500 index futures selling-off, suggesting renewed downside pressure and break below 1396. Reduce long positions further; need for capital preservation warranted. ... 7:30am .... The S&P 500 index closed at 1,406.82 7.78 on the partial recovery of the Shanghai stock market and the welcome words of Fed Chairman Bernanke who said there was no single trigger to Tuesday's market slide and financial markets "seem to be working well." Yet, after how violent and quick the plunge of 416 points was on Tuesday, a rebound appeared a logical progression. Now the $64 question: How firm will this rebound be? Without a crystal ball, the answer belongs with the gods. For us lowly dart throwers, we must anticipate the future direction of the S&P and that event will be the key. Yesterday, the index declined to 1,396.65, therefore, a near-term support is determined. If the index holds above that number, nibble on the long side; keep your powder dry, and basically remain on the sidelines, except to "ambush" a special situation.

February 28, 2007, 7:30am ... ... With China market recovered 35% of yesterday's loss, a "dead cat" bounce will lift stocks. Follow our lead during day. ... 7:30am ... ...The S&P 500 index dropped 50.33 points or 3.5% to close at 1,399.04, the worst one-day decline since September 2001. Interim phase support is set at 1,365, while 1325 represents primary support and a significant area whether long-term stability can be maintained. How the index acts today will establish whether the decline is the beginning of a more serious correction or merely a few days of anxiety. Forget about fundamental considerations, since the general market will be fueled by fear. Don't get trapped by any "dead cat" bounce until a new base has been established. Keep your powder dry. We pray you responded to our S&P 500 index announced yesterday at 10:27am to "reduce exposure on long positions." When the index failed to hold our pre-determined support of 1435 the momentum was set for further weakness. Naturally, if you failed to heed the advise, your losses may increase before the market rights itself.

February 27, 2007, 10:27am ...

... S&P 500 index below 1435 represents interim sell signal. Reduce exposure on long positions. ... International markets weak to warrant cautious posture. S&P 500 support at 1435.00 remains key number. ... 7:30 am ...The S&P 500 index fell 1.35 points to close at 1,499.37, representing the first four-session losing streak since August '06. However, the modest decline was within acceptable levels considering the range of advance since August 1, 2006 when the broad index stood at 1,270.72. The culprit can be traced by the inane statements by the former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who warned of a possible recession in the U.S. before year end, claiming "stabilizing" profit margins. What does stabilizing mean? His remarks were not consistent with reality, and appeared uttered by a fool in declining health. At careful look at the big pictures shows an expanding U.S. economy, fueling worldwide growth and the new demands by the emerging international middle class. Only the U.S. has the technical resources to make it happen. That's the reason why the benchmark 10-year Treasury bonds are yielding a meager 4.631% as bonds benefiting from safe-haven flows and surplus assets. As for oil, an increase to $85.00 per barrel would be needed to cause inflationary pressures. Currently at $61.39 a barrel, oil is cheap and supports new values moving from the Middle East to the industrial markets. Trading oil for paper supports higher stock prices. Use the current pause to strengthen your equity holding and don't get confused from "hot air" talking heads.

... . Purpose of the arrows: - projecting that DJIA, Nasdaq and S&P barometers will close higher at the end of the day. - projected consolidating barometers with limited directional action. - projecting all three barometers declining for the days.

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