Beat The Dart -"Picking Stocks the Old-fashioned Way"

Questions? Contact Us

First Look \| View From the Bottom \| Best Idea \| Today's Action	go to archive>>

Dartline™

represents immediate change - scroll down.

February 26, 2007, 9:00am

.... How sweet it is! Like we said, deals are the DEAL. More money available than anytime in history means higher equity prices. ... 7:30am ... Progressing as projected - the S&P 500 index has acted within acceptable limits, closing at 1,451.10 5.19, and above our near-term support. Pundits on Wall Street expect a 9% decline, claiming that the second-longest rally since 1929 is over. Don't listen. Market liquidity continues above historical averages and is directly related to the expanding middle class in the international markets. China, India, Brazil, Argentina, even parts of Africa are created new demand for goods and services like never before. The new middle-class effect has not been fully understood by economists and when they finally get around to it, the conclusions will create a set of financial dynamics greater than what took place from the Industrial Resolution. Projected total value this year of mergers and acquisitions in the U.S. should hit $1.9 trillion, while the international mergers and acquisition may increase to $3.9 trillion, a new high. The utilization of derivatives surged to the quickest pace in ten year during the last six months of '06 with face value on corporate bonds, currencies, interest rates, commodities and stocks jumped 21% to $390 trillion, the biggest percentage increase ever. Add the number of hedge funds worldwide to over 32,000 with near unlimited resources, and you have more capital than supply of equities. ... The third year in a presidential term has been the best-performing year for the S&P. The Third-Year Effect theory - a subjective probability index component - has been 100% right 14 times in a row and produced an average return of 19.3 percent. Indeed, past performance. doesn't guarantee future results, but don't discount the theory. ... Remain prudently aggressive, remove laggards and commit special situations on both sides.

February 26, 2007, 7:30am ... ..At 1,456.38 1.25, the S&P 500 index is in great shape. Nothing to worry about as the broader market marks time and holds its ground. With the Fed set to keep interest rates at 5.25 percent, and projected earnings growth for the S&P expected to moderate near 5% in Q1 and improve to 8% for Q2 and Q3, the P/E multiple is safe. ... Wall Street cry foul for the market's decline on Iran. Not an issue and merely an excuse to take profits. Not a bad idea especially when the pundits want the market lower, claiming it would be "good sign." Total bunk! Remain focused on what the U.S. dollar does and the action of the international markets. At this stage higher oil prices are a plus for the stock market since the results create more liquidity to buy paper. ... The dollar strengthened against the Japanese currency, rising to 121.55 yen from 120.88 yen. On Wednesday, the Bank of Japan lifted its key lending rate to 0.5 percent from 0.25 percent, its first move since July. As the dollar gain support, the international players remain committed to U.S. equities. ... Remain aggressive and selectively buy value, while taking profits and eliminating laggards with poor forward fundamentals.

... . Purpose of the arrows: - projecting that DJIA, Nasdaq and S&P barometers will close higher at the end of the day. - projected consolidating barometers with limited directional action. - projecting all three barometers declining for the days.

.... Our Message Board and "Contact Us" elements are available at no cost to keep you up-to-date with timely information. Our Fantasy Hedge Fund gives you a concise overview of how investment ideas are executed. All transactions are posted on the Message Board

View From the Bottom - A roundup of the day's performance

February 26, 2007, 4:00 pm. ... Day Trader for the day shows gain of $5,600.00. ... Adjustments to the 60-Day Summary list shows: (1) sold VPHM for a gain of $2,100.00. Net realized change for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio ("SFHF") is a gain of $7,700.00, and for the month to date a profit of $1,054,891.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses.

February 23 2007, 4:00pm ... Day Trader for the day shows no activity. ... Adjustments to the 60-Day Summary list (1) sold VRGY for a gain of $26,500.00; (2) sold HRB for a gain of $6,350.00; (3) sold VLCM for a gain of $3,000.00; (4) sold VAS for a gain of $12,050.00; (5) sold PGI for a gain of $6,700.00; (6) sold ARP for a gain of $47,200.00; (7) sold BEAS for a loss of $6,750.00; (8) sold VICR for a loss of $250.00; (9) sold MCHX for a loss of 3,900.00; (10) covered short on TKLC for a gain of $43,600.00; (11) covered short on ADI for a gain of $1,200.00. Net realized change for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio ("SFHF") is a gain of $135,700.00, and for the month to date a profit of $1,047,191.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses.

February 22, 2007, 4:00 pm. ... Day Trader for the day shows gain of $11,600.00. ... Adjustments to the 60-Day Summary list: (1) sold MRVC for a loss of $9,000.00; (2) sold all put options in DCLQO.X for a gain of $6,000.00. Net realized change for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio ("SFHF") is a gain of $8,600.00, and for the month to date a profit of $911,491.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses.

.For the fourth calendar quarter of 2006 on the SFHF portfolio. Total performance, including unrealized gains, was $1,027,724.90 on weighted capital of $4,832,125.72, representing 0.2127%. for the period ending December 31, 2006.

*** based on the weighted portfolio value adjusted daily.

.. . February 26, 2007

... 2:19pm ... BUY Gerber Scientific Inc. (GRB) - last $12.81. GRB provides equipment, software and related services to design and install processing industrial facilities worldwide. Increasing backlog from Asia for specialty graphics continues to drive sales and profits. With significant institutional sponsorship and management's effectiveness of 9.3% on assets, and desire to further enhance shareholder values has created dynamic growth curve,. Financials have improved and positioned to increase growth without hindering leverage. At 13 times forward earnings, GRB has limited risk profile. BUY for near-term advance to the $15-$16 range. No EXIT POINT determined.

February 23, 2007... 3:24pm ... BUY LIST based on subjective probability analysis: (1) BRCD - $8.93; (2) CSA - $22.40; (3) FARO - $27.26; (4) MERC - $13.51; (5) PDII - $10.30; (6) TNS - $17.12; (7) URI - $28.95; (8) USU - $15.51; (9) WRNC - $28.00; (10) WSSI - $14.01.... 11:20am ... BUY Healthextra Inc. (HLEX) - last $24.83. Add to position.

February 22, 2007... 3:38pm ... BUY LIST based on subjective probability analysis: (1) VRGY - $18.50; (2) VLCM - $32.80; (3) BEAS - $13.23; (4) MCHX - $14.06; (5) PGI - $9.10; (6) VAS - $29.51; (7) VICR - $10.87; (8) HRB - $22.52.

... 12:29pm ... BUY Healthextra Inc. (HLEX) - last $24.88. HLEX is a full-service pharmacy management company with over 58,000 participating pharmacies. The recent selection by Lear Corporation (104,000 full time employees) to provide services effective May 1, 2007, greatly improves guidance. With developing institutional sponsorship and managements desire to enhance shareholder value, HLEX is attracting further interest, possibly as a takeover candidate or management buyout. BUY for near-term gains to the $29.50-$31.00 range. No EXIT POINT determined.

Ticker	Last Trade	Direction	Entrance Point	Exit Point
GRB	February 26, 2007		$12.81	*

P/E Ratio:	31
Forward P/E Ratio:	13.62
Float Shares2:	true float 18.74 M
Company Guidance:	*
Recommendation3:	i*
Support4:	near-term 11.75
Resistance5:	near-term 17.25
Under Accumulation6:	limited yet improving
Under Distribution7:	no

... DAY TRADER

.. February 26, 2007

... 11:44am ... SELL entire position in SNDK - last $39.10. Unable to maintain upside volume.

... 10:08am ... BUY#2 on SNDK - last $38.69.

... 9:25am .... BUY Sandik Corporation (SNDK) - last $38.95. Move to $41.25 likely as SNDK found support in current range.

February 23, 2007, 7:30am . No action.

February 22, 2007... 3:55pm ... transfer SHORT #5 to 60-Day Summary list.... 2:03pm ... error - SHORT #5 on ADI at $36.63.... 1:51pm ... SHORT #5 on ADI - last $36.73 ..... 1:22pm ... COVER all SHORTS on ADI - last $36.60.... 12:42pm ... SHORT #4 on ADI - last $36.71 .... 11:47am ... SHORT #3 on ADI - last $36.39. ... 11:37am ... COVER SHORT #2 on ADI - last $36.36.... 11:02am ... SHORT #2 on ADI - last $36.78.... 10.47am ... COVER SHORT on ADI - last $36.26.... 10:12am ... SHORT Analog Devices (ADI) - last $36.52. After run-up ADI looks top-heavy as macd contracts.

.... From the 60-Day Summary list

... February 26, 2007

.... 3:36pm ... SELL Viropharma Inc. (VPHM) - last $17.78. Take profit.

February 23, 2007... 11:07am .. SELL MCHX - last $13.26. Take loss. Originally suggested at $14.06 on 02.22.07.... 10:47am ... COVER SHORT on ADI - last $36.57. Take profit.... 10:34am .. SELL VICR - last $10.82. Take loss. Originally suggested at $10.87 on 02.22.07.. 10:13am ... SELL BEAS - last $11.89. Take loss. Originally suggested at $13.23 on 02.22.07.... 10:08am ... SELL ARP - last $33.20. Take profit. Originally suggested at $30.64 on 02.20.07.... 10:02am ... SELL PGI - last $10.44. Take profit. Originally suggested at $9.10 on 02.22.07.... 9:53am ... SELL VAS - last 31.92. Take profit. Originally suggested at $29.51 on 02.21.07.... 9:44am ... COVER SHORT on TKLC - last $13.91. Take profit. Originally suggested at $15.00 on 02.21.07..... 9:44am ... SELL VLCM - last $33.40. Take profit. Originally suggested at $32.80 on 02.22.07..... 9:36am ... SELL HRB - last $23.79. Take profit. Originally suggested at $22.52 on 02.22.07.... 9:31am ... SELL VRGY - last $23.80. Take profit. Originally suggested at $18.50 on 02.22.07.

February 22, 2007 .... 2:48pm ... SELL MRVC - last $4.27. Originally suggested at $4.36 on 02.15.07. Take loss strictly to conserve cash since MRVC looks like "dead money" and lacks sponsorship to improve price. 10:23am ... SELL put option in DCLQO.X - last $6.70. Originally suggested 12.12.06 at $6.10. Take profit.

___________________________

Net liquidation value of Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund (SFHF) portfolio for the period ending 01.31.07.........,....... . $4,217,150.00

REALIZEDGAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ........................ ......... $277,601.00

REALIZED GAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio. ...............................$338,049.00

REALIZEDGAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ...... ......................... $371,020.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY '07 in the SFHF portfolio .....................................$615,500.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR FEBRUARY '07 TO DATE in the SFHF portfolio...............................$1,054,891.00

UNREALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) in the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio.

February 26, 2007, 4:00pm ....261,084.05

February 23, 2007, 4:00pm ....286,129.92

February 22, 2007, 4:00pm ... 174,984.74

February 21, 2007, 4:00pm ... 245,625.14

February 20, 2007, 4:00am ....221,200.11

February 16, 2006, 4:00am ... 105,450.00

February 15, 2007, 4:00pm ... 102,430.03

February 14, 2007, 4:00pm ....034,872.05

February 13, 2007, 4:00pm ... 081,087.85

February 12, 2007, 4:00pm.... 082,763.00

February 9, 2007, 4:00pm ..... 063,520.09

February 8, 2007, 4:00pm .....089,832.03

February 7, 2007, 4:00pm .... 069,394.42

February 6, 2007, 4:00pm .... 137,872.92

February 5, 2007, 4:00pm .... 203,529.84

February 2, 2007, 4:00pm .... 284,254.96

February 1, 2007, 4:00pm .....108,174.00

\_____________________________________

Prior Dartline summaries .......February 22, 2007, 7:30am ... Stocks fell yesterday when consumer prices increased greater than expected in January, as investors became concerned about inflation. Like Wall Street learned something new? Even before Federal Reserve Chairman Bemanke told Congress last week that inflation appeared to be moderating as the economy was showing sustained growth, Dartline said "inflation will not be a problem if the U.S. dollar can be support and gain against other major currencies, while the Fed continues to 'hint' that an interest rate hike will be the dollar's defender. Thus, the Fed will keep rates unchanged at 5.25 percent for the balance of the year." The dollar rose against the yen which indicates - no problem since the international community has bought the story. To further confirm our opinion, bonds fell as the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose to 4.70 percent from 4.68 percent late Tuesday. ... The S&P 500 index closed at 1,457.63 2.05, which remains positive and not a problem for a major decline. With 1435 as interim support, continue to be aggressive, while taking profits and reducing laggards without a 'story.'

February 21, 2007, 7:30am ... The S&P 500 index rose 4.14 to 1,459.98. Perfect ride as the broader stock market maintained its upward thrust. ... The Dow Jones Wiltshire 5000 - a free-float weighted index that measures 5000 U.S. based companies - closed at an all-time high of 14,796.54 on Tuesday, the first record close for the since since March 24, 2000. ... Overall, the market is basically positive with sustained growth and low inflation - a great combination for equity momentum.

February 20, 2007, 7:30am ... ...With the S&P 500 index at 1.455.54 1.27 the technical underpinnings to the market remain positive. However after three consecutive plus days, Friday's action look tired, though understandably with the level on momentum since October. Use 1435 as support to reduce any downside risk, while keeping your hand on the throttle. Remain aggressive, select 'special situations,' reduce laggards and take profits.

February 15, 2007, 7:30am ... ...At 1,455.30 11.04, the S&P 500 index is within striking distance of its all time high of 1,457.65 - an event that seemed improbable just a few days ago. While Dartline focused on caution, taking profits and reducing exposure to laggards, the general market has accepted Bernanke's remarks as the ultimate solution for higher prices. The Fed Chairman said the economy is growing and inflation pressures were starting to ease. True - he did say that, but the context created the perceived chance of a cut in U.S. interest rates by the end of the year, which would make borrowing cheaper for U.S. companies and boost the prices of Treasury bonds. Not an effective event because the prospect of monetary easing would erode the U.S. dollar's interest-rate advantage over other currencies. Confirming the international nervousness, the greenback fell while gold hit a six-month high at $676.60 an ounce. Wall Street got Bernanke's remarks wrong, but for the moment investors don't care, except the offshore participants who have created the underlying liquidity in stocks. The market showed no signs of slowing, which was underscored by a decline on the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) that slipped below the psychological level. The VXN (Nasdaq Volatility Index) was also under modest pressure, hitting a new '07 low. These investor fear gauges suggest the markets will work higher as investors actively bought call options to signal a short-term bottom has been establish. In this Bernanke rally, momentum will pull stocks higher. Don't go buy crazy! Maintain the posture committed over the past month - take profits, participate in special situation both long and short.

Prior Best Ideas ....February 21, 2007... 2:37pm ... BUY SCT - last $3.42. High speculative purchase as an average down, attempting to take advantage on improving macd..... 12:44pm ... Change limit order SHORT on Tekelec (TKLC) to market - last $15.00. Set projected COVER at $13.50. (as posted 02.20.07, 3:02pm)... 12:20pm .... BUY Federal Signal Corporation (FSS) - last $16.70. FSS manufactures commercial specialty vehicles and provides security services. Its recent sale of industrial cutting tool unit and purchase of software company to broaden security portfolio should improved profit margins. Fundamentals are strong with forward P/E at 18 times earnings. Technical near-term support at $16.40 with potential trade within the $19.5 range. 9:34am ... BUY Scottish Re Corporation (SCT) - last $3.88. Purchase on value ahead of shareholders meeting. See prior commentaries.

.February 20, 2007... 3:40pm ... BUY Nucryst Pharma. (NCST) - last $4.03. Dollar average down - add to position.... 3.02pm ... Set limit order SHORT on Tekelec (TKLC) at $15.25. - last $15.00. A telecommunications network company in a highly competitive business, TKLC lacks the product pipeline to enhance revenue on a consistent basis. Downgrades by Jefferies & Co, J. Morgan and Susquehanna Financial suggest the worst. SHORT with COVER at $12.70.1:06pm ... BUY American Reprographics Company (ARP ) - last $30.64. ARP provides business-to-business document management services. The recent acquisition of privately held Elite Reprographics gives the company a further presence in Northern California and increase marketing base. At 19 times projected earnings, with excellent fundamentals it represents value play with limited downside risk. On a near-term basis ARP can trade to the $34 level without difficulty.

February 16, 2007... 11:56am ... BUY NeuStar Inc. (NSR) - last $31.50.

......Note: Changes will be instantly broadcast on our Message Board. Log-in, it's free.

BeatTheDart.com offers a quick guide to update all commentaries relating to entrance and exit points. Now you are able to quickly bring into focus events that affected your investment resources. Use this important tool when considering asset redeployment or to modify capital decisions. Indeed, most investments are sensitive to timing, and accordingly many unforeseen developments can have a direct correlation to profits or losses. BeatTheDart.com will attempt to access events using avail bale information and our database. Since BeatTheDart.com relies on pattern recognition systems and probabilistic averages, all new information has a direct relationship to what has been previously reported. Thus , the information is only unique at the moment retrieved. The objective is to update, refine and present known facts that may have been deleted or unknown at an earlier date. The intent is simple..BeatTheDart.com does not report history and attempts to accurately access the present as it relates to the future. Events and circumstances are considered based on the most likely conclusions from a given set of fact and probability theory. BeatTheDart.com does not profess to be analysts, prophets or Wall Street wizards. Most stock recommendations of others have hidden agendas and reasons unrelated to the best interests of the recipient. BeatTheDart.com uses all available facts and are merely summarized from a common sense perspective. Emotional factors and unrelated circumstances are removed from the equation, making the reporting unbiased. The philosophy behind the web text is to accumulate available evidence, present it in a simple format, and offer it for you to judge; to assess and most assuredly to use prudence and with sound judgment .
Remember: knowledge can be communicated; wisdom is your department.

BEAT THE DART is a classic term originally applied in 1898 when J.P. Morgan threw a dart at the stock table page of the New York Times. Whatever the dart hot, he purchased the stock and made a fortune. In time others used the procedure with startling results. The dart picks beat professional analysts 65% of the time!
All content provided by BEAT THE DART.COM is for information only and not for trading or investment purposes, and may not be redistributed without written consent. You agree, neither BEAT THE DART nor any of its content providers will be liable for any errors or delays in receiving the content, for actions taken in reliance on the content.
1 Based on market conditions and other factors previewed in Best Ideas, changes can happen at any time. Accordingly, continue to log-in on a regular basis to maintain maximum performance.
2 Float - Available stock position in the hands of the general public of the total outstanding.
3 Institutional recommendations during the last 30 days.
4 Under technical analysis the term 'support' refers to a point in the stock's price that is immediately maintained and usually suggests an entrance point to purchase.
5 Under technical analysis the term 'resistance' suggests that a point in the stock's price has been reached and further gains are temporarily unlikely.
6 Under Accumulation occurs when abnormal buying in a particular stock takes place, and suggests that inside information may be at play and anticipates future price appreciation.
7 Under Distribution suggests that insiders and others are stealth fully selling on the belief that lower stock prices will occur.
© 2007 ERBC Services Corp.