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February 21, 2007, 7:30am

The S&P 500 index rose 4.14 to 1,459.98. Perfect ride as the broader stock market maintained its upward momentum. Since 1435 is our new support level, remain aggressive on the long side, while reducing laggards. Bond prices up slightly with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note at 4.68% to insure the U.S. dollar remains moderate strength against other major currencies. note: How the dollar goes, so does the stock market. ... . The Dow Jones Wiltshire 5000 - a free-float weighted index that measures 5000 U.S. based companies - closed at an all-time high of 14,796.54 on Tuesday, the first record close for the since since March 24, 2000. ... Overall, the market is basically positive with sustained growth and low inflation - a great combination for equities.

February 20, 2007, 7:30am ... ...With the S&P 500 index at 1.455.54 1.27 the technical underpinnings to the market remain positive. However after three consecutive plus days, Friday's action look tired, though understandably with the level on momentum since October. Use 1435 as support to reduce any downside risk, while keeping your hand on the throttle. Remain aggressive, select 'special situations,' reduce laggards and take profits.

... . Purpose of the arrows: - projecting that DJIA, Nasdaq and S&P barometers will close higher at the end of the day. - projected consolidating barometers with limited directional action. - projecting all three barometers declining for the days. .... Our Message Board and "Contact Us" elements are available at no cost to keep you up-to-date with timely information. Our Fantasy Hedge Fund gives you a concise overview of how investment ideas are executed. All transactions are posted on the Message Board

 

View From the Bottom - A roundup of the day's performance

February 21, 2007, 4:00 pm. ... Day Trader for the day shows no activity. ... Adjustments to the 60-Day Summary list shows no activity. Net realized change for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio ("SFHF") is no activity, and for the month to date a profit of $902,891.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses.

February 20 2007, 4:00pm ... Day Trader for the day shows no activity. ... Adjustments to the 60-Day Summary list (1) sold NSR for a gain of $25,400.00; (2) sold THOR for a gain of $16,800.00.00; (3) sold CNU for a gain of $49,500.00. Net realized change for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio ("SFHF") is a gain of $91,700.00, and for the month to date a profit of $902,891.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses.

February 16, 2007, 4:00 pm. ... Day Trader for the day shows gain of $72,220.00. ... Adjustments to the 60-Day Summary list: (1) sold PCR for a gain of $72,800.00. Net realized change for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio ("SFHF") is a gain of $145,020, and for the month to date a profit of $811,191.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses

.For the fourth calendar quarter of 2006 on the SFHF portfolio. Total performance, including unrealized gains, was $1,027,724.90 on weighted capital of $4,832,125.72, representing 0.2127%. for the period ending December 31, 2006.

*** based on the weighted portfolio value adjusted daily.

 

 
best idea

.. . February 21, 2007

... 2:37pm ... BUY SCT - last $3.42. High speculative purchase as an average down, attempting to take advantage on improving macd.

.... 12:44pm ... Change limit order SHORT on Tekelec (TKLC) to market - last $15.00. Set projected COVER at $13.50. (as posted 02.20.07, 3:02pm)

... 12:20pm .... BUY Federal Signal Corporation (FSS) - last $16.70. FSS manufactures commercial specialty vehicles and provides security services. Its recent sale of industrial cutting tool unit and purchase of software company to broaden security portfolio should improved profit margins. Fundamentals are strong with forward P/E at 18 times earnings. Technical near-term support at $16.40 with potential trade within the $19.5 range.

... 9:34am ... BUY Scottish Re Corporation (SCT) - last $3.88. Purchase on value ahead of shareholders meeting. See prior commentaries.

February 20, 2007... 3:40pm ... BUY Nucryst Pharma. (NCST) - last $4.03. Dollar average down - add to position.... 3.02pm ... Set limit order SHORT on Tekelec (TKLC) at $15.25. - last $15.00. A telecommunications network company in a highly competitive business, TKLC lacks the product pipeline to enhance revenue on a consistent basis. Downgrades by Jefferies & Co, J. Morgan and Susquehanna Financial suggest the worst. SHORT with COVER at $12.70.

... 1:06pm ... BUY American Reprographics Company (ARP ) - last $30.64. ARP provides business-to-business document management services. The recent acquisition of privately held Elite Reprographics gives the company a further presence in Northern California and increase marketing base. At 19 times projected earnings, with excellent fundamentals it represents value play with limited downside risk. On a near-term basis ARP can trade to the $34 level without difficulty. No EXIT POINT determined.

.

Ticker
Last Trade
Direction
Entrance Point
Exit Point
ARP
February 20, 2007
$30.80
*


P/E Ratio: 33
Forward P/E Ratio: 19
Float Shares2: 25.7 M
Company Guidance: *
Recommendation3: initiated as buy by SunTrust Robertson Humphrey / outperform ny William Blair
Support4: near-term 29.90
Resistance5: 37.50
Under Accumulation6: limited yet improving
Under Distribution7: limited

 
today's action

... DAY TRADER

.. February 20, 2007, 7:30am. No action.

February 16, 2007... 3:08pm ... COVER SHORT on PCR - last $35.62. Take profit.... 12:57pm ... SHORT PCR - last $36.81.... 12:07pm ... SELL PCR - last $36.47. Take profit. ... 10:51am .. BUY Perini Corporation (PCR) - last $34.05. Under accumulation for near term advance, possibly to $35.00.

 

.... From the 60-Day Summary list

. February 21, 2007, 7:30am . No action.

February 20, 2007... 1:15pm ... SELL Continucare Corporation (CNU) - last $3.48. Originally suggested at $2.82 on 12.05.06. Take profit. May revisit later.... 9:45am ... SELL Thoratic Corporation (THOR) last $19.11. Originally suggested at $18.55 on 02,15.07. Take profit. ... 9:37am ... NSR opened at $32.77... 9:27am ... SELL Neustar Inc. (NSR) - last $32.80. Originally suggested at $31.50 on 02.16.07. Take profit. Insider projected selling negative based on timing.

_____________________________

Net liquidation value of Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund (SFHF) portfolio for the period ending 01.31.07.........,....... . $4,217,150.00

REALIZEDGAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ........................ ......... $277,601.00

REALIZED GAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio. ...............................$338,049.00

REALIZEDGAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ...... ......................... $371,020.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY '07 in the SFHF portfolio .....................................$615,500.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR FEBRUARY '07 TO DATE in the SFHF portfolio...................................$902,891.00

UNREALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) in the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio.

February 21, 2007, 4:00pm ... 245,625.14

February 20, 2007, 4:00am ....221,200.11

February 16, 2006, 4:00am ... 105,450.00

February 15, 2007, 4:00pm ... 102,430.03

February 14, 2007, 4:00pm ....034,872.05

February 13, 2007, 4:00pm ... 081,087.85

February 12, 2007, 4:00pm.... 082,763.00

February 9, 2007, 4:00pm ..... 063,520.09

February 8, 2007, 4:00pm .....089,832.03

February 7, 2007, 4:00pm .... 069,394.42

February 6, 2007, 4:00pm .... 137,872.92

February 5, 2007, 4:00pm .... 203,529.84

February 2, 2007, 4:00pm .... 284,254.96

February 1, 2007, 4:00pm .....108,174.00

\_____________________________________

Prior Dartline summaries ...February 15, 2007, 7:30am ... ...At 1,455.30 11.04, the S&P 500 index is within striking distance of its all time high of 1,457.65 - an event that seemed improbable just a few days ago. While Dartline focused on caution, taking profits and reducing exposure to laggards, the general market has accepted Bernanke's remarks as the ultimate solution for higher prices. The Fed Chairman said the economy is growing and inflation pressures were starting to ease. True - he did say that, but the context created the perceived chance of a cut in U.S. interest rates by the end of the year, which would make borrowing cheaper for U.S. companies and boost the prices of Treasury bonds. Not an effective event because the prospect of monetary easing would erode the U.S. dollar's interest-rate advantage over other currencies. Confirming the international nervousness, the greenback fell while gold hit a six-month high at $676.60 an ounce. Wall Street got Bernanke's remarks wrong, but for the moment investors don't care, except the offshore participants who have created the underlying liquidity in stocks. The market showed no signs of slowing, which was underscored by a decline on the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) that slipped below the psychological level. The VXN (Nasdaq Volatility Index) was also under modest pressure, hitting a new '07 low. These investor fear gauges suggest the markets will work higher as investors actively bought call options to signal a short-term bottom has been establish. In this Bernanke rally, momentum will pull stocks higher. Don't go buy crazy! Maintain the posture committed over the past month - take profits, participate in special situation both long and short.

Prior Best Ideas ...February 16, 2007... 11:56am ... BUY NeuStar Inc. (NSR) - last $31.50.

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