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February 20, 2007, 7:30am

With the S&P 500 index at 1.455.54 1.27 the technical underpinnings to the market remain positive. However after three consecutive plus days, Friday's action look tired, though understandably with the level on momentum since October. Use 1435 as support to reduce any downside risk, while keeping your hand on the throttle. Remain aggressive, select 'special situations,' reduce laggards and take profits.

February 16, 2007, 7:30am ... ...The S&P 500 index hit an interim 6 -1/2 year high, while closing at 1,456.81 1.51. Momentum rules as fear diminishes. However, aggregate earnings growth for the S&P is slowing to 6%, which requires P/E multiples to expand as a means for the stock market to build on recent gains. Indeed, the likelihood of further profit gains are remote and the fuel to keep the index going higher will not be available. For now, set a new support level for the S&P 500 index at 1435.

... . Purpose of the arrows: - projecting that DJIA, Nasdaq and S&P barometers will close higher at the end of the day. - projected consolidating barometers with limited directional action. - projecting all three barometers declining for the days. .... Our Message Board and "Contact Us" elements are available at no cost to keep you up-to-date with timely information. Our Fantasy Hedge Fund gives you a concise overview of how investment ideas are executed. All transactions are posted on the Message Board

 

View From the Bottom - A roundup of the day's performance

February 20 2007, 4:00pm ... Day Trader for the day shows no activity. ... Adjustments to the 60-Day Summary list (1) sold NSR for a gain of $25,400.00; (2) sold THOR for a gain of $16,800.00.00; (3) sold CNU for a gain of $49,500.00. Net realized change for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio ("SFHF") is a gain of $91,700.00, and for the month to date a profit of $902,891.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses.

February 16, 2007, 4:00 pm. ... Day Trader for the day shows gain of $72,220.00. ... Adjustments to the 60-Day Summary list: (1) sold PCR for a gain of $72,800.00. Net realized change for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio ("SFHF") is a gain of $145,020, and for the month to date a profit of $811,191.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses

February 15, 2007, 4:00 pm. ... Day Trader for the day shows no activity. ... Adjustments to the 60-Day Summary list shows; (1) sold THOR for a gain of $23,400.00. Net realized change for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio ("SFHF") is a gain of $23,400.00 and for the month to date a profit of $666,171.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses.

.For the fourth calendar quarter of 2006 on the SFHF portfolio. Total performance, including unrealized gains, was $1,027,724.90 on weighted capital of $4,832,125.72, representing 0.2127%. for the period ending December 31, 2006.

*** based on the weighted portfolio value adjusted daily.

 

 
best idea

.. . February 20, 2007

... 3:40pm ... BUY Nucryst Pharma. (NCST) - last $4.03. Dollar average down - add to position.

... 3.02pm ... Set limit order SHORT on Tekelec (TKLC) at $15.25. - last $15.00. A telecommunications network company in a highly competitive business, TKLC lacks the product pipeline to enhance revenue on a consistent basis. Downgrades by Jefferies & Co, J. Morgan and Susquehanna Financial suggest the worst. SHORT with COVER at $12.70.

... 1:06pm ... BUY American Reprographics Company (ARP ) - last $30.64. ARP provides business-to-business document management services. The recent acquisition of privately held Elite Reprographics gives the company a further presence in Northern California and increase marketing base. At 19 times projected earnings, with excellent fundamentals it represents value play with limited downside risk. On a near-term basis ARP can trade to the $34 level without difficulty. No EXIT POINT determined.

February 16, 2007... 11:56am ... BUY NeuStar Inc. (NSR) - last $31.50. NSR provides services to the communications and Internet industries. Its mobile instant messaging unit is increasing traction in Europe, which will reflect on the bottom line. At 28 times forward earnings with return on equity at 30.48%, NSR had the firepower to be a big winner. With a true float of less than 24 million, institutional sponsorship increasing and management's desire to enhance shareholder value, NSR is a perfect mid-term growth candidate. BUY with no EXIT POINT determined.

Ticker
Last Trade
Direction
Entrance Point
Exit Point
ARP
February 20, 2007
$30.80
*


P/E Ratio: 33
Forward P/E Ratio: 19
Float Shares2: 25.7 M
Company Guidance: *
Recommendation3: initiated as buy by SunTrust Robertson Humphrey / outperform ny William Blair
Support4: near-term 29.90
Resistance5: 37.50
Under Accumulation6: limited yet improving
Under Distribution7: limited

 
today's action

... DAY TRADER

.. February 20, 2007, 7:30am. No action.

February 16, 2007... 3:08pm ... COVER SHORT on PCR - last $35.62. Take profit.... 12:57pm ... SHORT PCR - last $36.81.... 12:07pm ... SELL PCR - last $36.47. Take profit. ... 10:51am .. BUY Perini Corporation (PCR) - last $34.05. Under accumulation for near term advance, possibly to $35.00.

February 15, 2007, 7:30am. No action.

February 14, 2007, 7:30am. No action.

February 13, 2007... 1:05pm ... SELL #2 on HANS - last $37.55. When in doubt, get out. Take minor profit. ... 12:31pm ... BUY # 2 HANS - last $37.51. Improving volume as HANS moves off near-term support.... 11:38am ... SELL HANS - last $37.73. Under to maintain positive macd.... 11:00am ... BUY Hansen Natural Company (HANS) - $37.48. Liquidation appears complete as macd improved. Trade to $38.52 likely.

February 12, 2007. No action

February 9, 2007... 3:47pm ... COVER SHORTS on ENER - last $29.56. Take profit.... 2:48pm ... COVER SHORT #3 on JOYG - last $46.43.... 1:41pm ... Transfer SIMG to 60-day Summary list.... 1:35pm ... SHORT #3 on JOYG - last $47.00.... 1:09pm ... COVER SHORTS ON JOYG - last $46.85. Take profit.... 10:26am ... SHORT #2 on JOYG - last $47.31... 10:10am ... SHORT #2 on ENER - last $30.79.... 9:56am ... BUY Silicon Image Inc. (SIMG) - last $9.48.Improving macd with limited but increasing volume.... 9:46am ... SHORT Energy Conversion Devices Inc. (ENER) - last $29.81Under pressure to sell off further.... 9:36am ... Uptick on JOYG set short at $46.91. ... 9:30 am ...SHORT Joy Global Inc (JOYG) . - last $47.85. At technical resistance with limited upside, decline to $44.10 likely.

 

.... From the 60-Day Summary list

. February 20, 2007

... 1:15pm ... SELL Continucare Corporation (CNU) - last $3.48. Originally suggested at $2.82 on 12.05.06. Take profit. May revisit later.

... 9:45am ... SELL Thoratic Corporation (THOR) last $19.11. Originally suggested at $18.55 on 02,15.07. Take profit.

... 9:37am ... NSR opened at $32.77

... 9:27am ... SELL Neustar Inc. (NSR) - last $32.80. Originally suggested at $31.50 on 02.16.07. Take profit. Insider projected selling negative based on timing.

February 16, 2007 ... 9:34am ... SELL Perini Corporation (PCR) - last $34.40. Originally suggested at $30.76 on 02.15.07. Take profit.

February 15, 2007 ... 11:39am ... SELL Thoratec Corporation (THOR) last $19.14. Take profit.

February 14, 2007... 11:22am .. SELL ECLP - last $19.40. Take minor loss. No satisfied with guidance and stock sponsorship 10:02am ... SELL MVSN - last $27.57. Originally suggested at $25.30 on 02.13.07. Take profit..

February 13, 2007... 9:58am ... SELL Himax Technologies (HIMX) - last $5.18. Take minor profit. HIMX looking forward not sufficient. . ... 9:43am ... SELL Veeco Instrument (VECO) - last $20.42. Originally suggested at 19.27 on 02.05.07. Take profit.

February 12, 2007... 1:05pm ... SELL SIMG - last $9.11. Take loss... 11:13am ... COVER SHORT on PBI - last $47.94. Take profit.... 10:27am ... SELL call options in CATCY.X - last bid $7.60. Take profit on 50% of remaining position.

February 9, 2007... 2:56pm ... COVER SHORT on Navistar Intn'l Corp (NAV) - last $45.95. Originally suggested as sold sell at $46.93 on 02.07.07. Take profit.... 10:24am ... SELL call options in CATCY.X - last bid $8.00. Take profit on 50% of remaining position. ... 9:59am ... SELL DIVX Inc. (DIVX) - last $22.65. Under distribution even after strong earnings report.

_____________________________

Net liquidation value of Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund (SFHF) portfolio for the period ending 01.31.07.........,....... . $4,217,150.00

REALIZEDGAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ........................ ......... $277,601.00

REALIZED GAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio. ...............................$338,049.00

REALIZEDGAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ...... ......................... $371,020.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY '07 in the SFHF portfolio .....................................$615,500.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR FEBRUARY '07 TO DATE in the SFHF portfolio...................................$902,891.00

UNREALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) in the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio.

February 20, 2007, 4:00am ....221,200.11

February 16, 2006, 4:00am ... 105,450.00

February 15, 2007, 4:00pm ... 102,430.03

February 14, 2007, 4:00pm ....034,872.05

February 13, 2007, 4:00pm ... 081,087.85

February 12, 2007, 4:00pm.... 082,763.00

February 9, 2007, 4:00pm ..... 063,520.09

February 8, 2007, 4:00pm .....089,832.03

February 7, 2007, 4:00pm .... 069,394.42

February 6, 2007, 4:00pm .... 137,872.92

February 5, 2007, 4:00pm .... 203,529.84

February 2, 2007, 4:00pm .... 284,254.96

February 1, 2007, 4:00pm .....108,174.00

\_____________________________________

Prior Dartline summaries .February 15, 2007, 7:30am ... ...At 1,455.30 11.04, the S&P 500 index is within striking distance of its all time high of 1,457.65 - an event that seemed improbable just a few days ago. While Dartline focused on caution, taking profits and reducing exposure to laggards, the general market has accepted Bernanke's remarks as the ultimate solution for higher prices. The Fed Chairman said the economy is growing and inflation pressures were starting to ease. True - he did say that, but the context created the perceived chance of a cut in U.S. interest rates by the end of the year, which would make borrowing cheaper for U.S. companies and boost the prices of Treasury bonds. Not an effective event because the prospect of monetary easing would erode the U.S. dollar's interest-rate advantage over other currencies. Confirming the international nervousness, the greenback fell while gold hit a six-month high at $676.60 an ounce. Wall Street got Bernanke's remarks wrong, but for the moment investors don't care, except the offshore participants who have created the underlying liquidity in stocks. The market showed no signs of slowing, which was underscored by a decline on the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) that slipped below the psychological level. The VXN (Nasdaq Volatility Index) was also under modest pressure, hitting a new '07 low. These investor fear gauges suggest the markets will work higher as investors actively bought call options to signal a short-term bottom has been establish. In this Bernanke rally, momentum will pull stocks higher. Don't go buy crazy! Maintain the posture committed over the past month - take profits, participate in special situation both long and short, reduce holdings with weakening fundamentals and remain prudent. This market looks too good - and you know what they say about something looking to good?

.February 14, 2007, 10:38am ... .. With the S&P 500 index above 1450, the bulls are in control. Aggressively buy special situations and move as over-balance into technology and industrial sectors. .... 7:30am ...The S&P 500 index increased 10.89 to 1,444.26. A test above 1450 is the next value level before the market's sideway action can be resolved. Indeed, if 1450 becomes an obstacle, increase cash position and allow the market to consolidate at low levels. For now, go with the flow, and only vest to special situations. Remain committed to reduce laggards or issues with weak forward fundamentals. ... With the Fed maintaining interest rates at 5.25 percent and not being "talked against it" the stock will insure liquidity and the support of the international community. Key to the Fed's logic is the stability of U.S. dollar, especially when the trade deficit set a record for a fifth straight year and the imbalance with China soared to an all-time high as well. The gap between what the U.S. sells abroad and what it imports rose to a record $763.6 billion last year, up 6.5 percent from the previous record of $716.7 billion in 2005, as reported by the Commerce Department. Thus, the delicate balance between wider deficits and the need to borrow vast sums to pay for the debt requires the U.S. dollar to be defended. Two primary ways to accomplish it are (1) to reduce debt or (2) induce hyper-inflation by pay down the debt with cheaper dollars. Both remedies have dire consequences. Only by defending the U.S. dollar can the Fed insure a moderating world economy and satisfy global investors to participate in U.S. financial instruments. Don't expect lower interest rates, and possibly an increase if the dollar weakens or inflation increases. The need to support the deteriorating housing mortgages is why the rates are not higher.

February 13, 2007, 1:47pm .... At 1,443.33 9.82 the S&P 500 index has reestablish upward trend line. Resistance at 1450 remains. Market liquidity combined with international buyers reversed technicals. Selective participant on long side ... 7:30am .. .The S&P 500 index is starting to look like 1410 will be tested before a breakout above 1450 happens. At 1,433.37 4.69, the index appears venerable to any disappointment, especially with 75% of the underlying constituents have reported quarterly results; the focus has shifted from Q4 earnings to the general economic outlook. As caution becomes the byword, the market cannot move up. Use the timeframe to take profits, reduce exposure to laggards and keep your firepower reasonably dry.

.February 12, 2007, 7:30am ... S&P 500 index closed at 1,428.06 10.25 and further establishing the range 1410 to 1450. Providing no breakdown below 1410, the general market remains positive to extend mid-term gains. With 60% of the companies beating estimates. the S&P 500 will be up 10.3% for the quarter. Since earrings are a prelude to market direction, the results were decent, but in comparison to what the market has come to expect over recent years, the reports were not impressive. Therefore, caution is required when considering major long position. Continue with taking profits and reducing stocks with less than positive forward results.

Prior Best Ideas ... February 14, 2007... 11:53am ... BUY Thoratec Corporation (THOR) - last $18.36. THOR offers a battery-powered system to treat heart failure patients and recently obtained tentative approval by Medicare to double the original select group of 69 hospital qualified to implant the device, effective projected April '07. Additionally, the introduction of a smaller, quieter unit is waiting FDA approval that will further enhance guidance. Fundamentals are improving as management continues to implement its long term business model. With 44.3 million true float and significant institutional sponsorship, THOR remains

February 15, 2007... 2:59pm ... BUY #2 on Thoratec Corporation (THOR) - last $18.55. Use overview dated 02.14.07, 11:53am.... 12:24pm ... BUY Perini Corporation (PCR) - last $30.76. PCR is a general contractor in three segments: (1) Building - projects in the hospitality, gaming, sports, entertainment, educational, transportation, and healthcare markets; (2) Civil - manages in new public work construction and repair; (3) Management services for military and government agencies. At 14 times projected earnings PCR is "cheap" and worth mid-term commitment. With a true float of 17.8 million shares and moderate institutional support, PCR have the ability to aggressively advance. Near term support at $29.75 with resistance $33.50. Earnings for the 4Q are due after the close and should be $0.37 per shares, while the Street is looking for $0.32. BUY is a n-term play to EXIT POINT $35.00, and longer term to $42.50 within 18 months. ... 11:59am ... BUY MRV Communications Inc. (MRVC) - last $4.36. MRVC designs, manufactures and supports communication equipment and services. The recent intent to purchase Fibercon, a $50 million revenue company in China, merge the unit into Luminent, an operating division, and spinout in a public offering will materially enhance shareholder value. Fundamentals are superior with a well grounded management, MRVC is a near-term investment to EXIT POINT $6.15. er steady accumulation. BUY as mid-term investment with EXIT POINT at 21.50.

February 13, 2007... 3:35pm ... BUY Macrovision Corporation (MVSN) - last $25.30 MVSN develops and markets digital lifecycle management solutions, including installations of related technologies. The recent acquisition of Mediabolic Inc. extends its ability to deliver and enhance digital content to a wide variety of consumer electronic devices.MVSN rained its 2006 per-share outlook by 3 cents to a range of $1.13 to $1.17 with revenue at $243 million - adjusted forward P/E at 18 times earnings to Dec '07. With strong institutional sponsorship and limited float MVSN can be active on the upside. Technical near-term support at 24.90 with upside resistance at 27.75. BUY for near-term trade. No EXIT POINT determined... 12:05pm ... BUY MED - Last $8.85. Add to position

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