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February 16, 2007, 7:30am

The S&P 500 index hit an interim 6 -1/2 year high, while closing at 1,456.81 1.51. Momentum rules as fear diminishes. However, aggregate earnings growth for the S&P is slowing to 6%, which requires P/E multiples to expand as a means for the stock market to build on recent gains. Indeed, the likelihood of further profit gains are remote and the fuel to keep the index going higher will not be available. For now, set a new support level for the S&P 500 index at 1435.

February 15, 2007, 7:30am ... ...At 1,455.30 11.04, the S&P 500 index is within striking distance of its all time high of 1,457.65 - an event that seemed improbable just a few days ago. While Dartline focused on caution, taking profits and reducing exposure to laggards, the general market has accepted Bernanke's remarks as the ultimate solution for higher prices. The Fed Chairman said the economy is growing and inflation pressures were starting to ease. True - he did say that, but the context created the perceived chance of a cut in U.S. interest rates by the end of the year, which would make borrowing cheaper for U.S. companies and boost the prices of Treasury bonds. Not an effective event because the prospect of monetary easing would erode the U.S. dollar's interest-rate advantage over other currencies. Confirming the international nervousness, the greenback fell while gold hit a six-month high at $676.60 an ounce. Wall Street got Bernanke's remarks wrong, but for the moment investors don't care, except the offshore participants who have created the underlying liquidity in stocks. The market showed no signs of slowing, which was underscored by a decline on the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) that slipped below the psychological level. The VXN (Nasdaq Volatility Index) was also under modest pressure, hitting a new '07 low. These investor fear gauges suggest the markets will work higher as investors actively bought call options to signal a short-term bottom has been establish. In this Bernanke rally, momentum will pull stocks higher. Don't go buy crazy! Maintain the posture committed over the past month - take profits, participate in special situation both long and short, reduce holdings with weakening fundamentals and remain prudent. This market looks too good - and you know what they say about something looking to good?

February 14, 2007, 10:38am ... .. With the S&P 500 index above 1450, the bulls are in control. Aggressively buy special situations and move as over-balance into technology and industrial sectors. .... 7:30am ...The S&P 500 index increased 10.89 to 1,444.26. A test above 1450 is the next value level before the market's sideway action can be resolved. Indeed, if 1450 becomes an obstacle, increase cash position and allow the market to consolidate at low levels. For now, go with the flow, and only vest to special situations. Remain committed to reduce laggards or issues with weak forward fundamentals. ... With the Fed maintaining interest rates at 5.25 percent and not being "talked against it" the stock will insure liquidity and the support of the international community. Key to the Fed's logic is the stability of U.S. dollar, especially when the trade deficit set a record for a fifth straight year and the imbalance with China soared to an all-time high as well. The gap between what the U.S. sells abroad and what it imports rose to a record $763.6 billion last year, up 6.5 percent from the previous record of $716.7 billion in 2005, as reported by the Commerce Department. Thus, the delicate balance between wider deficits and the need to borrow vast sums to pay for the debt requires the U.S. dollar to be defended. Two primary ways to accomplish it are (1) to reduce debt or (2) induce hyper-inflation by pay down the debt with cheaper dollars. Both remedies have dire consequences. Only by defending the U.S. dollar can the Fed insure a moderating world economy and satisfy global investors to participate in U.S. financial instruments. Don't expect lower interest rates, and possibly an increase if the dollar weakens or inflation increases. The need to support the deteriorating housing mortgages is why the rates are not higher.

... . Purpose of the arrows: - projecting that DJIA, Nasdaq and S&P barometers will close higher at the end of the day. - projected consolidating barometers with limited directional action. - projecting all three barometers declining for the days. .... Our Message Board and "Contact Us" elements are available at no cost to keep you up-to-date with timely information. Our Fantasy Hedge Fund gives you a concise overview of how investment ideas are executed. All transactions are posted on the Message Board

View From the Bottom - A roundup of the day's performance

February 16, 2007, 4:00 pm. ... Day Trader for the day shows gain of $72,220.00. ... Adjustments to the 60-Day Summary list: (1) sold PCR for a gain of $72,800.00. Net realized change for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio ("SFHF") is a gain of $145,020, and for the month to date a profit of $811,191.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses

February 15, 2007, 4:00 pm. ... Day Trader for the day shows no activity. ... Adjustments to the 60-Day Summary list shows; (1) sold THOR for a gain of $23,400.00. Net realized change for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio ("SFHF") is a gain of $23,400.00 and for the month to date a profit of $666,171.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses.

February 14, 2007, 4:00pm ... Day Trader for the day shows no activity. ... Adjustments to the 60-Day Summary list (1) sold MVSN for a gain of $113,500.00; (2) sold ESLP for a loss of $7,500.00.. Net realized change for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio ("SFHF") is a gain of $106,000.00, and for the month to date a profit of $642,771.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses.

.For the fourth calendar quarter of 2006 on the SFHF portfolio. Total performance, including unrealized gains, was $1,027,724.90 on weighted capital of $4,832,125.72, representing 0.2127%. for the period ending December 31, 2006.

*** based on the weighted portfolio value adjusted daily.

 

 
best idea

.. . February 16, 2007

... 11:56am ... BUY NeuStar Inc. (NSR) - last $31.50. NSR provides services to the communications and Internet industries. Its mobile instant messaging unit is increasing traction in Europe, which will reflect on the bottom line. At 28 times forward earnings with return on equity at 30.48%, NSR had the firepower to be a big winner. With a true float of less than 24 million, institutional sponsorship increasing and management's desire to enhance shareholder value, NSR is a perfect mid-term growth candidate. BUY with no EXIT POINT determined.

February 15, 2007... 2:59pm ... BUY #2 on Thoratec Corporation (THOR) - last $18.55. Use overview dated 02.14.07, 11:53am.... 12:24pm ... BUY Perini Corporation (PCR) - last $30.76. PCR is a general contractor in three segments: (1) Building - projects in the hospitality, gaming, sports, entertainment, educational, transportation, and healthcare markets; (2) Civil - manages in new public work construction and repair; (3) Management services for military and government agencies. At 14 times projected earnings PCR is "cheap" and worth mid-term commitment. With a true float of 17.8 million shares and moderate institutional support, PCR have the ability to aggressively advance. Near term support at $29.75 with resistance $33.50. Earnings for the 4Q are due after the close and should be $0.37 per shares, while the Street is looking for $0.32. BUY is a n-term play to EXIT POINT $35.00, and longer term to $42.50 within 18 months. ... 11:59am ... BUY MRV Communications Inc. (MRVC) - last $4.36. MRVC designs, manufactures and supports communication equipment and services. The recent intent to purchase Fibercon, a $50 million revenue company in China, merge the unit into Luminent, an operating division, and spinout in a public offering will materially enhance shareholder value. Fundamentals are superior with a well grounded management, MRVC is a near-term investment to EXIT POINT $6.15.

February 14, 2007... 11:53am ... BUY Thoratec Corporation (THOR) - last $18.36. THOR offers a battery-powered system to treat heart failure patients and recently obtained tentative approval by Medicare to double the original select group of 69 hospital qualified to implant the device, effective projected April '07. Additionally, the introduction of a smaller, quieter unit is waiting FDA approval that will further enhance guidance. Fundamentals are improving as management continues to implement its long term business model. With 44.3 million true float and significant institutional sponsorship, THOR remains under steady accumulation. BUY as mid-term investment with EXIT POINT at 21.50.

February 13, 2007... 3:35pm ... BUY Macrovision Corporation (MVSN) - last $25.30 MVSN develops and markets digital lifecycle management solutions, including installations of related technologies. The recent acquisition of Mediabolic Inc. extends its ability to deliver and enhance digital content to a wide variety of consumer electronic devices.MVSN rained its 2006 per-share outlook by 3 cents to a range of $1.13 to $1.17 with revenue at $243 million - adjusted forward P/E at 18 times earnings to Dec '07. With strong institutional sponsorship and limited float MVSN can be active on the upside. Technical near-term support at 24.90 with upside resistance at 27.75. BUY for near-term trade. No EXIT POINT determined... 12:05pm ... BUY MED - Last $8.85. Add to position

Ticker
Last Trade
Direction
Entrance Point
Exit Point
NSR
February 16, 2007
$31.50
*


P/E Ratio: 36
Forward P/E Ratio: 28
Float Shares2: 63.3 M*
Company Guidance: *
Recommendation3: initiated as buy by Deutshe Securities l
Support4: near-term 29.60
Resistance5: 35.50
Under Accumulation6: limited yet improving
Under Distribution7: limited

 
today's action

... DAY TRADER

.. February 16, 2007

... 3:08pm ... COVER SHORT on PCR - last $35.62. Take profit.

... 12:57pm ... SHORT PCR - last $36.81.

... 12:07pm ... SELL PCR - last $36.47. Take profit.

... 10:51am .. BUY Perini Corporation (PCR) - last $34.05. Under accumulation for near term advance, possibly to $35.00.

February 15, 2007, 7:30am. No action.

February 14, 2007, 7:30am. No action.

February 13, 2007... 1:05pm ... SELL #2 on HANS - last $37.55. When in doubt, get out. Take minor profit. ... 12:31pm ... BUY # 2 HANS - last $37.51. Improving volume as HANS moves off near-term support.... 11:38am ... SELL HANS - last $37.73. Under to maintain positive macd.... 11:00am ... BUY Hansen Natural Company (HANS) - $37.48. Liquidation appears complete as macd improved. Trade to $38.52 likely.

February 12, 2007. No action

February 9, 2007... 3:47pm ... COVER SHORTS on ENER - last $29.56. Take profit.... 2:48pm ... COVER SHORT #3 on JOYG - last $46.43.... 1:41pm ... Transfer SIMG to 60-day Summary list.... 1:35pm ... SHORT #3 on JOYG - last $47.00.... 1:09pm ... COVER SHORTS ON JOYG - last $46.85. Take profit.... 10:26am ... SHORT #2 on JOYG - last $47.31... 10:10am ... SHORT #2 on ENER - last $30.79.... 9:56am ... BUY Silicon Image Inc. (SIMG) - last $9.48.Improving macd with limited but increasing volume.... 9:46am ... SHORT Energy Conversion Devices Inc. (ENER) - last $29.81Under pressure to sell off further.... 9:36am ... Uptick on JOYG set short at $46.91. ... 9:30 am ...SHORT Joy Global Inc (JOYG) . - last $47.85. At technical resistance with limited upside, decline to $44.10 likely.

 

.... From the 60-Day Summary list

. February 16, 2007

... 9:34am ... SELL Perini Corporation (PCR) - last $34.40. Originally suggested at $30.76 on 02.15.07. Take profit.

February 15, 2007 ... 11:39am ... SELL Thoratec Corporation (THOR) last $19.14. Take profit.

February 14, 2007... 11:22am .. SELL ECLP - last $19.40. Take minor loss. No satisfied with guidance and stock sponsorship 10:02am ... SELL MVSN - last $27.57. Originally suggested at $25.30 on 02.13.07. Take profit..

February 13, 2007... 9:58am ... SELL Himax Technologies (HIMX) - last $5.18. Take minor profit. HIMX looking forward not sufficient. . ... 9:43am ... SELL Veeco Instrument (VECO) - last $20.42. Originally suggested at 19.27 on 02.05.07. Take profit.

February 12, 2007... 1:05pm ... SELL SIMG - last $9.11. Take loss... 11:13am ... COVER SHORT on PBI - last $47.94. Take profit.... 10:27am ... SELL call options in CATCY.X - last bid $7.60. Take profit on 50% of remaining position.

February 9, 2007... 2:56pm ... COVER SHORT on Navistar Intn'l Corp (NAV) - last $45.95. Originally suggested as sold sell at $46.93 on 02.07.07. Take profit.... 10:24am ... SELL call options in CATCY.X - last bid $8.00. Take profit on 50% of remaining position. ... 9:59am ... SELL DIVX Inc. (DIVX) - last $22.65. Under distribution even after strong earnings.

February 8, 2007... 11:26am ... SELL ZI Corporation (ZICA) - last $2.48. On the first revisit, ZICA was suggested at $2.34 on 02.02.07. Take profit in weak stock market. Plan to revisit below $2.34.... 9:31am .. RTEC opened at $15.81, ... 7:30am. SELL Rudolph Technologies Inc. (RTEC) - last [after hours] $16.05. RTEC reported Q4 below consensus, guidance Q1 EPS and revenue below consensus. SELL at the opening and take loss.

February 7, 2007... 2:51pm ... SELL Psivida Ltd. (PSDV) - last $1.63. Originally suggested at $1.88 on 12.26.06. Take loss - disappointed with timeframe on purported announcement for drug partnership... 2:47pm ... SELL Hanger Orthopedic (HGR) - last $10.25. Originally suggested at $9.02 on 01.31.07. Take profits with intent to revisit.... 2:47pm ... SELL Thomas Betts (TND) - last $49.67. Originally suggested at $48.89 on 02.05.07. Take profit based on S&P 500 index failed to maintain 1450.... 2:46pm ... SELL 25% of the call options in CATCY.X - last bid $8.60. Originally suggested at $2.85 on 01.24.07. Take profit ... 12:26pm ... SELL Nymox Pharma (NYMX) - last $5.55. Not confident that the new drug candidate is time sensitive and may require a longer period to attract a partner. Take profit and watch this one from the sidelines until further notice.

_____________________________

Net liquidation value of Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund (SFHF) portfolio for the period ending 01.31.07.........,....... . $4,217,150.00

REALIZEDGAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ........................ ......... $277,601.00

REALIZED GAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio. ...............................$338,049.00

REALIZEDGAINS LOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ...... ......................... $371,020.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY '07 in the SFHF portfolio .....................................$615,500.00

REALIZEDGAINSLOSSES FOR FEBRUARY '07 TO DATE in the SFHF portfolio...................................811,191.00

UNREALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) in the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio.

February 16, 2006, 4:00am ... 105,450.00

February 15, 2007, 4:00pm ... 102,430.03

February 14, 2007, 4:00pm ....034,872.05

February 13, 2007, 4:00pm .. 081,087.85

February 12, 2007, 4:00pm.. 082,763.00

February 9, 2007, 4:00pm ... 063,520.09

February 8, 2007, 4:00pm ....089,832.03

February 7, 2007, 4:00pm .... 069,394.42

February 6, 2007, 4:00pm .... 137,872.92

February 5, 2007, 4:00pm .... 203,529.84

February 2, 2007, 4:00pm .... 284,254.96

February 1, 2007, 4:00pm .....108,174.00

\_____________________________________

Prior Dartline summaries ..February 13, 2007, 1:47pm .... At 1,443.33 9.82 the S&P 500 index has reestablish upward trend line. Resistance at 1450 remains. Market liquidity combined with international buyers reversed technicals. Selective participant on long side ... 7:30am .. .The S&P 500 index is starting to look like 1410 will be tested before a breakout above 1450 happens. At 1,433.37 4.69, the index appears venerable to any disappointment, especially with 75% of the underlying constituents have reported quarterly results; the focus has shifted from Q4 earnings to the general economic outlook. As caution becomes the byword, the market cannot move up. Use the timeframe to take profits, reduce exposure to laggards and keep your firepower reasonably dry.

.February 12, 2007, 7:30am ... S&P 500 index closed at 1,428.06 10.25 and further establishing the range 1410 to 1450. Providing no breakdown below 1410, the general market remains positive to extend mid-term gains. With 60% of the companies beating estimates. the S&P 500 will be up 10.3% for the quarter. Since earrings are a prelude to market direction, the results were decent, but in comparison to what the market has come to expect over recent years, the reports were not impressive. Therefore, caution is required when considering major long position. Continue with taking profits and reducing stocks with less than positive forward results.

February 9, 2007, 4:30 ... The Big Lie at work - Two Federal Reserve officials made unexpected remarks that economic growth could prompt an interest rate hike. Naturally, it cooled the stock market and stabilized the U.S. dollar - exactly what Dartline predicted months ago. No way will the Fed increase rates and said only to send a signal that "the dollar will be defended." A strong dollar means higher stock prices. The Fed understands the dynamics, why not Wall Street? ... 7:30am ..Stocks closed moderately lower yesterday as uncertainty continued over future events, especially whether a contracting economy may stall earnings growth. Indeed, the bulk of earnings season is past as the market's foreword thinking must reflect on renewed ramification of the mortgage lending business, especially the potential impact on earnings for the S&P 500's most influential sector. The lack of momentum suggested only limited selling pressure and not sufficient to warrant wholesale liquidation of equities. At 1,448.31 1.71, the S&P 500 index reflected nothing since the trading range with support and resistance levels remained intact. A breakout above 1450 is our only indication to insure further gains. Continue to mark time, reduce non-performing positions, take profits and selectively nibble at the edges.

February 8, 2007, 7:30am ... ... Even with the S&P 500 index closing slightly above 1,450 (1450.02) 2.02, the underlying sense that the general market is still overbought on a short-term basis remains the major obstacle for a robust rally. Wall Street wanted a lower rate to pump more liquidity into the market. A short-term, irresponsible idea, that would have created panic in the currency markets, reduce the flow of foreign capital and drop the stock market by 25 percent. Fortunately, the Fed's decision to keep unchanged interest rates at 5.25 percent insures that the dollar will have stability against the major international currencies. Indeed, higher interest rates, a weapon against inflation, support a currency by making assets denominated in that currency more attractive to investors. To keep the flow of major currencies into U.S. equities requires a strong dollar. Therefore, interest rate cannot be reduced and in general the markets have adjusted to the fact, but most digest the conclusion before a new buying wave can occur. When the Fed left the rate unchanged, a moderate pullback was expected. Wall Street is still waiting. For now, use the S&P 500 index to flash the next direct for the general market. On January 18, 2007 when the S&P closed at 1430.62, Dartline said: "On a time basis, the S&P 500 must achieve 1,450.00 within the next thirty days. If it does not happen, the likelihood for a contraction is very high, possibly to test 1,345.00." Since the level has been reached - What now? How the index reacts above 1450 should give us a better idea. Use the current posture to liquidate any laggards that a lack a "story" and let's see what a happens.

Prior Best Ideas ... February 12, 2007... 3:28pm ... BUY Medifast Inc. (MED) - last $9.03. MED reported revenue of $73.5 million, up 83%. BUY for near term move to $15.50.... 12:06pm ... BUY Eclipsys Corporation (ECLP) - last $19.55. ECLP offers healthcare information systems. The recent purchase of Slyck & Associates will allow the company to expand its integrated staffing and productivity management reporting capabilities. Over the last three years ECLP has controlled cost while expanding its revenue basis, and should produce enhanced earnings into '08. Selling at 23 times forward earnings, ECLP represents a value play. With earnings due tomorrow after the close, ECLP is capable to beat estimates and guidance. BUY with near term EXIT POINT at $23.75. Near term technical support at $19.20 with $20.80 resistance.... 9:36am ... VPHM opened at $17.69. ... BUY ViroPharma Inc. (VPHM) - last $17.69. With its major drug the antibiotic Vancocin, VPHM should record another banner year with $205 million in revenue, up 24% over 2006. Add a promising drug candidate in phase 3, and another in phase 2 trials to treat hepatitis C, VPHM has the firepower and financial resources to appreciate in value and "cheap" at 12 times forward earnings. BUY as mid-term investment with EXIT POINT at $21.50.

9, 2007 .... 1:26pm ... BUY ZI Corporation (ZICA) - last $2.40. See prior posting - a revisit candidate.

February 8, 2007... 3:19pm ... BUY Corautus Genetics Inc. (VEGF) - last $0.499. Merger with privately-held Via Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VIA) will create a drug development company focused on compounds that target inflammation in the blood vessel wall to treat cardiovascular disease. The lead product VIA-2291, a small molecule drug, is under Phase II clinical trails. Under the merger agreement VIA shareholders will own 76.4% and existing VEHF shareholders 23.6%, plus $12 million in cash. Therefore, the dilutions would increase the outstanding shares to 78 million and projected $0.40 book value. Also consider that VEHF had failed to meet NASDAQ Capital Market continued listing requirements, which would force the stock to trade on the pink sheets. As a HIGH RISK idea, VEHF should be consider only with the likelihood of losing most of the committed capital if the company fails to bring VIA-2291 to commercial fruition. note: Consult with your investment adviser or other professional before considering this suggestion. ... 1:58pm ... BUY DIVX, Inc. (DIVX) - last $23.23. DIVX is becoming the standard for Internet video with its compression-decompression software library. With the recent content partnerships in the the U.S. and international markets, the company should rapidly grow revenue and earnings. After the close DIVX may exceed analyst 4Q estimates of $0.09 per share and 12-months of $0.46 per share. BUY for near-term advance with EXIT POINT at $27.50. Longer term, DIVX is a perfect takeover target for Goggle, Microsoft or Amazon.

February 7, 2007...11:06am ... BUY Rudolph Technologies Inc. (RTEC) last $16.55. RTEC provides process control equipment for thin film measurement and macro-defect inspection for integrated circuit manufactures. New product traction continues to record increase levels of revenue and earnings. Increasing gross margins will show on the bottom line as RTEC strengthens financials as the August Technology merger becomes fully integrated, and be confirmed after the close with earnings and revenue gains. With a true float of 19.3 million shares and strong institutional support, RTEC is positioned to be a big winner, especially with forward P/E at 13.92 times earnings. Technicals have stabilized with near term support at $15.95, while resistance at $20.15. BUY as mid-term limited risk position with EXIT POINT at $25.70 or 17 times projected P/E.... 9:33am .. HIMX opened at $5.09. ... 7:30am ... BUY Himax Technologies Inc. (HIMX) - last $5.01 [after hours]. HIMX designs, develops and markets semiconductors that are critical components of flat panel displays. Its recently closed acquisition of Wisepal Technologies Inc., a fabless IC design company specializing in LCD Driver ICS for small and medium sized panels, will be immediately accretive. Management believed the purchase of 10 million of the company's ADSs (American Depositary Shares) was taking advantage of unrealized value that existed in their common stock and "cheap" at $5.00 per share. HIMX is considered a near term growth play with EXIT POINT at $8.10, representing 14 times forward earnings.

February 6, 2007... 3:06pm ... BUY Nymox Pharmaceutical Corporation (NYMX) - last $5.40. NYMX has a primary drug known as NX-1207 for the treatment of benign prostatic hyperplasia, which can be a blockbuster application, and should receive attention from a major drug company. Moderate financials, but above average technical staff, NYMX is consider a mid-term high speculation. Yet, the company may have a significant upside and warrants the risk. However, consider the possibility of NX-1207 may have a long term horizon and the company may not have the resources to complete testing. With a float of 14.57 million shares and insider controlling the stock ownership, NYMX may be a takeover play. note: consult with your financial professional before purchasing NYMX because of the high risk component of the decision. 1:04pm ... SELL IVAC - last $22.75.Lack conviction that IVAC can accelerate in value in near term. SELL and take profit ahead of earnings .... 10:18am ... BUY Intervac Inc. (IVAC) last $22.50. IVAC a maker of equipment to build computer disks has substantial increased backlog to enhance values going forward. Excellent management and strong financial statement offers mid-term potential to move into the $25-$27 range.

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60-day Summary Commentary

60-day summary message board fantasy hedge fund