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January 30, 2007, 7:30am

S&P 500 index closed at 1,420.62 1.56. In general, the market finished like it opened as investors remained uncertain while 25% of the index's underlying stocks report this week. Today's the start of the big event - a two-day Fed meeting, after which investors will receive the central bank's latest read on the economy and intersect rates. Since the Fed has left short-term rates unchanged at its last four meeting, more of the same is assumed. Indeed,, the consensus has come around to our view - leaving short-term rates unchanged is not a bad idea - and will stabilize the 30-year Treasury note and cause the U.S. dollar to remain firm against the other major currencies. As investors reconcile the new reality as far as the Fed stands, the general market will continue to consolidate without a major decline. However, we must remain vigilant to how the S&P 500 index reacts at the 1410 area. So far so good, as the index has enjoy a solid performance without collapsing. With the level of high liquidity, especially from the Middle East, equities have found little reason to materially decline. Continue to weed out stocks less than desirable while adding to special situations.

January 29, 2007, 7:30am ... ..At 1,422.18 the S&P 500 index in no--man's land as confirmed by Friday's range of 1416.96-1427.27. A time for caution until a clear indication which way the general market will move to, as 1410 remains the near term support, while 1450 represents resistance. Looming large on the week's agenda will be the Fed's first meeting of the year, a two-day affair that begins Tuesday. While investors have long since given up hope for a cut in interest rates at the meeting, they will no doubt pounce on any suggestion that might reveal the central bank's intentions for the future. For now, use the opportunity to reduce weak performing stocks and carefully move into special situations on both sides - long and short.

January 26, 2007, 7:30am Yesterday the Standard & Poor's 500 index dropped 1.1 percent at 1,423.90 (range of 1422.34-1440.68) as lower oil prices hit energy stocks. On the economic front, investors didn't like the last numbers on durable goods orders, new home sales and building permits. Apparently, Wall Street wants it their way - a slowing economy to lower interest rates and a stronger economy to lower interest rates. Our prognosis remains the same: S&P must hold support at 1410, and if so the market will continue to be locked-in the current consolation range with the basis on the upside.

 

.. Purpose of the arrows: - projecting that DJIA, Nasdaq and S&P barometers will close higher at the end of the day. - projected consolidating barometers with limited directional action. - projecting all three barometers declining for the days. .... Our Message Board and "Contact Us" elements are available at no cost to keep you up-to-date with timely information. Our Fantasy Hedge Fund gives you a concise overview of how investment ideas are executed. All transactions are posted on the Message Board

View From the Bottom - A roundup of the day's performance
January 30, 2007, 4:00 pm. ... Day Trader for the day shows no activity. ... Adjustments to the 60-Day Summary list shows; (1) sold PNCL for a gain of $46,200.00. Net realized change for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio ("SFHF") is a gain of $46,200.00 and for the month to date a profit of $696,450.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses. note: activity in GKSR not considered.

January 29, 2007, 4:00 pm. ... Day Trader for the day show no activity. ... Adjustments to the 60-Day Summary list: (1) covered short on IRF for a gain of $18,500.00. Net realized change for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio ("SFHF") is a gain of $18,500.00.00. and for the month to date a profit of $650,250.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses

.For the fourth calendar quarter of 2006 on the SFHF portfolio. Total performance, including unrealized gains, was $1,027,724.90 on weighted capital of $4,832,125.72, representing 0.2127%. for the period ending December 31, 2006.

*** based on the weighted portfolio value adjusted daily.

 

 
best idea

.. January 30, 2007

... 3:13pm ... SHORT POZEN (POZN) - last $17.01 . Anticipation of positive FDA ruling to be announced at mid-cap conference is premature. Silence suggests a longer delay than wish to admit. At resistance ($17.15-$17.00) for pulling back to $16.10.

... Five Issues to appreciate in the near term to capture February 1st earnings announcements: (1) Accelrys Inc. (ACCL) last $6.18. Exit point $7.25 (2) Asyst Technologies Inc. (ASYT) - last $6.39. Exit point $9.10; (3) Perrigo Company (PRGO) - last $17.37. Exit point $20.15; (4) Ruddick Company (RDK) - last $27.70. Exit Point $30.10 (5) Unica Corporation (UNCA) - last $12.21. Exit point 14.50..

_____________________

January 29, 2007... 3:39pm ... BUY Origin Agritech Limited (SEED) - last $8.82. SEED is oversold after declining $2.59 (23%) on failing to meet the estimates of a single analyst. With excellent business model, a dedicated management to execute the plan and sufficient working capital SEED is a value play for the near term. BUY with no EXIT POINT determined. ... 2:07pm ... BUY SanDisk Corporation (SNDK) - last $42.22. Earnings due tomorrow after the close. Projections indicate $0.75 vs $0.68 for the December '06 quarter. However, the guidance for the next 90-day period will establish the near term direction. Look for moderate bullish remarks. Current term EXIT POINT $44.50.

 

Ticker
Last Trade
Direction
Entrance Point
Exit Point
SNDK
January 29, 2007
$42.22
$44.50


P/E Ratio: 24
Forward P/E Ratio: 16
Float Shares2: 166 M
Company Guidance: *
Recommendation3: Downgrade UBS from buy to neutral
Support4: 41.10 (near term)
Resistance5: 44.50
Under Accumulation6: yes
Under Distribution7: no

 
today's action

... DAY TRADER

.. January 30, 2007

... 9:42am ... SELL GKSR - last $36.52. Take profit on pre-market trade.

...9:00am ... BUY G&K Services Inc. (GKSR) - last $18.88 [pre-market] Closed yesterday at $39.18 off 51% after disappointing numbers. Reaction on downside was overblown. With book value of $25.79, proven business model and superior management, GKSR should respond to a "dead-cat" bounce.

January 29, 2007, 7:30am . No action.

January 26, 2007, 7:30am. No action.

.

... From the 60-Day Summary list

.. January 30, 2007

.... 10:25am ... SELL Pinnacle Airlines (PNCL) - last $17.62. Originally suggested at an average cost of $16.48. Take profit with intent to revisit.

January 29, 2007... 9:42am ... COVER SHORT International Rectifier (IRF) - last $42.25. Take profit.

January 26, 2007, ... 9:35am ... SELL Oplink Communications (OPIK) - last $19.20. Take profit. ... 9:20am ... SELL International Rectifier (IRF) - last $40.55 - ( pre-market) Originally suggested at $37.72 on 01.25.07, IRF is at up line resistance. Take profit.

.

_________________________________

NET VALUE OF Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund (SFHF) portfolio for the week ending 12.29.06 ....................,....... . $5,164,000.00

REALIZEDGAINS (LOSSES) FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ........................ ......... $277,601.00

REALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio. ...............................$338,049.00

REALIZEDGAINS (LOSSES) FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ...... .......................... $371,020.00

REALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY TO DATE in the SFHF portfolio................$696,450.00

UNREALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) in the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio.

January 30, 2007, 4:00am ... 000,007.00

January 29, 2007, 4:00pm .... 147,810.00

January 26, 2007, 4:00om ... 100,003.93

January 24, 2007, 4:00pm ... 199,347.09

January 24, 2007, 4:00pm ... 213,004.22

January 23, 2007, 4:00pm ....239,506.23

January 22, 2007, 4:00pm ... 133,011.83

January 19, 2007, 4:00pm ... 138,809.94

\_____________________________________

Prior Dartline summaries ... January 25, 2007, 7:30 As predicted Bush said nothing and Wall Street rejoiced. For us the critical factor was how the S&P 500 index acted; and reaching a six-year high, rising 12.14 to 1,440.13 . Establishing this new high before a choppy consolidation over the previous four days gain near the 50% retracement line of 1410-1440 represents a solid indication that the index is going high. ... Use a subjective probability curve, 1450 is the next upside target. ... Now we know. Stockville is alive and well as the bull roars. However, the exuberance is conditional upon (1) current earnings reports hint that future business conditions are sufficient to create more value for equities, (2) that inflation can be contained and (3) the Fed will lower short-term interest rates. Naturally, such a scenario is nor realistic Therefore, commitment. with one-foot ready to exit, while weeding out negative forward earnings investments. ... The U.S. dollar rose against major European currencies on speculation that the Group of Seven will address the weakness in the Japanese currency and the massive balance of payment surplus created by China. From an economic perspective, China created the monetary dynamics to cause a general enhancement of intangible assets worldwide. The same condition was observed after 1986 when the Soviet Union collapse and free enterprise stepped in by trading physical assets into paper - stock certificates. Like paper money issued by governments to invent new value, equity underwriting has transformed China into China Inc. For this reason, and only this reason, international capital is so abundant that the U.S. stocks markets have attracted the surplus. We have said from October that the level of money on the sidelines was so massive that the stock market had a safety net unprecedented in world economics. ... On balance be watchful for stocks that become overbought, while continually assessing your portfolio.

January 24, 2007, 7:30am ... What an interesting day? The S&P 500 index closed at 1,427.99, trading within a range of 1421.66 to 1431.33. As indicated, the market is vulnerable to erratic trading, Yesterday's action was driven by the energy price spike of over $2 a barrel and the instant response of Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM). In the past, energy prices had been the excuse to point direction for equities. When oil prices when up, stocks did the opposite. Like other myths, this one lack true value, except to gauge long term inflation. Still, the perception is that interest rates will decline. No idea! Stocks will eventually pull back as the Street understands that the Fed won't cut interest rates.For now, allow the S&P project our next move. With the index above 1410, we must remain flexible, and commit funds on both sides, while reducing exposure to deadbeat stocks. ... The Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund is sitting with a pile of junk even though the realized gains this month to date have reached an all time high. This too must change.

January 23, 2007, 1:08pm ... S&P 500 index at 1430.45 7.49 has moved above technical resistance to suggest higher prices. Interesting development when considering the broad advance and the level of international fund buying. However, remain defensive. ... 7:30am ... "Difficulties to determine interim direction" was solved yesterday. The S&P 500- index closed at 1,422.95 7.55, with a day's range of 1420.40-1431.39. The stock market is vulnerable to erratic trading, and will continue. In general, the noise on the street points to a nervous and lower market. Earnings and economic data has signaled that growth is cooling, but does it mean sustained discounts in equity prices? A test to 1,410 is likely and if holds, stocks have the potential to rally, especially as earnings season dissipates.

January 22, 2007, 7:30am ... Resiliency of the S&P 500 index to closed at 1,430.50 4.13 (Friday's range 1425.19-1431.57) suggests that more money remains uncommitted than previously calculated. On Friday morning certain levels were established to insure we are not blind sided by a contracting market, but by day's end the general strength created difficulties in determining interim direction. However, with support at 1,410 and the failure to move above the 52-week high of 1,436.72, must consume our thoughts until something more effective happens. Within this wait-and-see mode, keep your powder dry and keep new commitments to special situations with a clear end point and reduce or eliminate any holding that appear to be lemons. ... Earnings will be the main agenda this week as the debate continues whether the economy is slowing, interest rates heading lower and a score of other concerns to give the market an excuse either to go up or down. Earnings forecasting may be the tip off to determine if the robust gains in stock prices continues. So far, this year has proven difficult to access, while confidence that the Fed will lower rates is gone. We have said since October '06 that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at 5.25% to defense the soft dollar. Being right has given the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund superior gains. After the market pauses to regain its momentum, test 1410 in the S&P and allow the robust earnings and strong economic reports to enhance enthusiasm then all will be fine once more in Stockville, as the general market works higher. ... Watch for more spin from Tuesday's State of the Union speech, possibly Bush would admit for the first time that global warning is real, remember he was the guy who kept refusing to believes the scientific community we have a major problem. Now days when Bush speaks no one listens, maybe like the purported weapons of mass destruction to get us into the Iraq war, he'll claim global warnings is another radical Arab conspiracy to destroy the world? The interaction of business and government is so focusing, the only prudent advice is determine how others outside the United States react to what the Bush Administration is perceived to do, and act accordingly to protect your investments. .... Today the Conference Board will release its index of leading economic indictors. Look for further improvements in the economy's health over the next six months. On Tuesday, the Richmond Federal Reserve is expected to report on regional manufacturing. The report will surely kill any hope for a reduction in interest rates. ... Again, for the record: New commitment should be confined to special situations with immediate horizons, reduce over-extended positions and eliminate weak performing stocks, while adding to your cash reserves.

Prior Best Ideas ... January 26, 2007...2:23pm ... SHORT International Rectifier Corporation (IRF) - last $42.62. IFR is within a level level that appears overbought, and a pullback to $40.80 likely.

January 25, 2007,.. ....(pre-market) ... BUY March CALL OPTION in Caterpillar Inc. (CATCY.X) - last bid $2.76 - last ask $2.85 [last stock price - (CAT) $59.30] Strictly on a technical basis, the call options has a strike price of $57.50, which represents support. Resistance is found at $69.50. On a near term basis, CAT can trade within the $64-$65 range, creating a 30% value increase in the options. note: Option investment is high risk and should not be attempted unless you understand the consequences. ... .11:50am ... BUY International Rectifier Corporation (IRF) - last $37.72. Under accumulation with possible view to earnings release after close. Near term support is $37.60 and should be the downside to interim range. A move to $41.25 likely on earnings surprise associated with sale of its power control systems business for $290 million in cash.... 8:45am

....January 22, 2007... 2:44pm ... BUY Oplink Communication (OPLK) - last $18.99 Recent declines brings forward P/E to 17 times earnings. OPLK is a value play to $21.50. With a true float of 15.5 million shares and moderate institution participate in current level OPLK represents a special situation BUY in a weak market ahead of earnings. ... 2:36pm ... COVER SHORT ON EFUT - last $35.32. Improved macd suggest cove r.... 11:26am ... SHORT E-Future Information (EFUT) - last $36.91. After run up of $5.31 on Johnson & Johnson contract, EFUT has lost momentum to warrant short sales to $34.70.

.January 19, 2007... 2:41pm ... SHORT #2 ON ADTRAN inc. (ADTN) - last $22.37. Under limited liquidation after run up. Earnings due 01.23.07 and will disappoint. See comments below.

January 18, 2007, 12:56pm ... SELL IMOI - last $6.10. Under distribution for the entire day, Major selling pressure confirms liquidation and not conducive to higher profits. Suggest to closeout position..... BUY #2 ON Highway Holdings Ltd. (HIHO) - last $5.64. Originally suggested at $4.88 on 01.09.07. Add to position based on midterm fundamentals... 9.56am ... SHORT #2 ON Alcoa Inc. (AA) - last $31.07. At resistance with limited upside. Dollar average down with test $29.40.... 9:00am ... BUY Iomai Corporation (IMOI) $6.00 [pre-market]. IOMI received $14.4 contract to complete trials of its candidate vaccine, and may receive an additional $114 million upon successful completion of those trials. Float at 10.09 million shares while insiders control 67.4% of the outstanding suggests management's desire to enhance stock value. The new contract improves fundamentals. Speculative BUY with EXIT POINT at $9.50.

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60-day Summary Commentary

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