|
 |
| Dartline™ |
 represents immediate change - scroll down.
January 25, 2007, 7:30am
|
  |
|
As predicted Bush said nothing and Wall Street rejoiced. For us the critical factor was how the S&P 500 index acted; and reaching a six-year high, rising 12.14 to 1,440.13 . Establishing this new high before a choppy consolidation over the previous four days gain near the 50% retracement line of 1410-1440 represents a solid indication that the index is going high. ... Use a subjective probability curve, 1450 is the next upside target. ... Now we know. Stockville is alive and well as the bull roars. However, the exuberance is conditional upon (1) current earnings reports hint that future business conditions are sufficient to create more value for equities, (2) that inflation can be contained and (3) the Fed will lower short-term interest rates. Naturally, such a scenario is nor realistic Therefore, commitment. with one-foot ready to exit, while weeding out negative forward earnings investments. ... The U.S. dollar rose against major European currencies on speculation that the Group of Seven will address the weakness in the Japanese currency and the massive balance of payment surplus created by China. From an economic perspective, China created the monetary dynamics to cause a general enhancement of intangible assets worldwide. The same condition was observed after 1986 when the Soviet Union collapse and free enterprise stepped in by trading physical assets into paper - stock certificates. Like paper money issued by governments to invent new value, equity underwriting has transformed China into China Inc. For this reason, and only this reason, international capital is so abundant that the U.S. stocks markets have attracted the surplus. We have said from October that the level of money on the sidelines was so massive that the stock market had a safety net unprecedented in world economics. ... On balance be watchful for stocks that become overbought, while continually assessing your portfolio.
January 24, 2007, 7:30am ...   What an interesting day? The S&P 500 index closed at 1,427.99, trading within a range of 1421.66 to 1431.33. As indicated, the market is vulnerable to erratic trading, Yesterday's action was driven by the energy price spike of over $2 a barrel and the instant response of Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM). In the past, energy prices had been the excuse to point direction for equities. When oil prices when up, stocks did the opposite. Like other myths, this one lack true value, except to gauge long term inflation. Still, the perception is that interest rates will decline. No idea! Stocks will eventually pull back as the Street understands that the Fed won't cut interest rates.For now, allow the S&P project our next move. With the index above 1410, we must remain flexible, and commit funds on both sides, while reducing exposure to deadbeat stocks. ... The Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund is sitting with a pile of junk even though the realized gains this month to date have reached an all time high. This too must change.
|
View
From the Bottom - A roundup of the day's performance |
January 25, 2007, 4:00 pm. ... Day Trader for the day show no activity. ... Adjustments to the 60-Day Summary list shows; (1) no activities,.No realized change for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio ("SFHF"),, and for the month to date a profit of $486,550.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses.
January 24, 2007, 4:00 pm. ... Day Trader for the day show no activity. ... Adjustments to the 60-Day Summary list: (1) sold IDTI for a gain of $28,000.00; (2) sold position in HIHO for a gain of $57,900.00; (3) sold NUMC for a gain of $6800.00; (4) sold MPRG.PK for a loss of $47,800.00. Net realized change for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio ("SFHF") is a gain of $44,900.00. and for the month to date a profit of $486,550.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses
.For the fourth calendar quarter of 2006 on the SFHF portfolio. Total performance, including unrealized gains, was $1,027,724.90 on weighted capital of $4,832,125.72, representing 0.2127%. for the period ending December 31, 2006.
*** based on the weighted portfolio value adjusted daily.
|
|
| |
|
| |
 |
|
.. January 25, 2007,
...11:50am ... BUY International Rectifier Corporation (IRF) - last $37.72. Under accumulation with possible view to earnings release after close. Near term support is $37.60 and should be the downside to interim range. A move to $41.25 likely on earnings surprise associated with sale of its power control systems business for $290 million in cash.
... 8:45am .... BUY March CALL OPTION in Caterpillar Inc. (CATCY.X) - last bid $2.76 - last ask $2.85 [last stock price - (CAT) $59.30] Strictly on a technical basis, the call options has a strike price of $57.50, which represents support. Resistance is found at $69.50. On a near term basis, CAT can trade within the $64-$65 range, creating a 30% value increase in the options. note: Option investment is high risk and should not be attempted unless you understand the consequences. 
January 24, 2007, 7:30. No action.
January 23, 2007... 3:21pm .. BUY Motion Picture Group (MPRG.PK) - last $0.44* MPRG.PK is a film/entertainment financing and production company, holds an interest in "Hounddog," a full length drama featuring Dakota Fanning, Robin Wright-Penn, David Morse, Afemo Omiliami and Piper Laune. National distribution rights would enhance value to the stock that already has advanced from $0.20 to current price in three trading sessions. A risk candidate in the "buyer-beware" category, wherein the purchaser may loss all his/her investment, yet offers sufficient action to be considered a 'horse race bet." As always required, consult with your financial advisor before commitment. [* executed price]... 2:07pm ... BUY Nucryst Pharmaceuticals Corporation (NCST) - last $4.36. After failure od Phase 2 clinical trials for eczema NCST dropped from $16.88 to current level. The prognosis was not that bad since 35% efficacy should prove adequate. However,, the placebo standard may have compromised results. Announcement by management on reconstituted results is due shortly. Add to position and mid=term BUY with no EXIT POINT determined.
_________________________________
,.. January 24, 2007, . 9:15am ... SELL Integrated Device Technology (IDTI ) - last pre-market $15.74. Take profit. IDTI disappointed and level of distribution not warranted in near term... BUY Integrated Device Technology Inc. (IDTI) - last $15.19. IDTI designs, manufactures and markets semiconductor items in three areas: communications, computing and networking. Based on product line, IDTI is poised to outperform the semiconductor industry. With excellent fundamentals as forward P/E to April '08 projected to 12 times, IDTI is a clear value play ahead of earnings after the close. BUY with near term EXIT POINT at $18.25..
Ticker |
Last
Trade |
Direction |
Entrance
Point |
Exit
Point |
| IDTI |
January 23, 2007 |
|
$15.19 |
18.25 |
|
| P/E Ratio: |
* |
| Forward P/E Ratio: |
12 |
| Float Shares2: |
198.76 M |
| Company Guidance: |
* |
| Recommendation3: |
UBS initiated as buy / Global Crown Capital initiated as overweight |
| Support4: |
14.85 |
| Resistance5: |
19.10
|
| Under Accumulation6: |
yes |
| Under Distribution7: |
limited |
|
|
| |
 |
|
... DAY TRADER
.. January 25, 2007, 7:30am. No action.
January 24, 2007, 7:30am. No action.
... From the 60-Day Summary list
... January 25, 2007, 7:30am. No action.
January 24, 2007... 10:42am ... SELL Nu Horizon Elect. (NUHC) - last $9.49. Take profit as a means to maintain higher cash position.... 9:48am ... SELL Motion Picture (MPRG.PK) - last $0.441*. Failed to respond based on volume performance over last three days. Cautious approach based on risk/reward ratio. [* average sale price $0.3924]... 9:40am ... SELL Highway Holdings (HIHO) - last $6.25. Take profit.
_________________________________
NET VALUE OF Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund (SFHF) portfolio for the week ending 12.29.06 ....................,....... . $5,164,000.00
REALIZEDGAINS (LOSSES) FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ........................ ......... $277,601.00
REALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio. ...............................$338,049.00
REALIZEDGAINS (LOSSES) FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ...... .......................... $371,020.00
REALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY TO DATE in the SFHF portfolio..............$486,550.00
UNREALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) in the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio.
January 24, 2007, 4:00pm ... 199,347.09
January 24, 2007, 4:00pm ... 213,004.22
January 23, 2007, 4:00pm ....239,506.23
January 22, 2007, 4:00pm .. 133,011.83
January 19, 2007, 4:00pm ... 138,809.94
January 18, 2007, 4:00pm.. ...160,874.03
January 17, 2007, 4:00pm .....194,436.17
January 16, 2007, 4:00pm .....092,123.51
\_____________________________________
Prior Dartline summaries ...January 23, 2007, 1:08pm ... S&P 500 index at 1430.45 7.49 has moved above technical resistance to suggest higher prices. Interesting development when considering the broad advance and the level of international fund buying. However, remain defensive. ... 7:30am ... "Difficulties to determine interim direction" was solved yesterday. The S&P 500- index closed at 1,422.95 7.55, with a day's range of 1420.40-1431.39. The stock market is vulnerable to erratic trading, and will continue. In general, the noise on the street points to a nervous and lower market. Earnings and economic data has signaled that growth is cooling, but does it mean sustained discounts in equity prices? A test to 1,410 is likely and if holds, stocks have the potential to rally, especially as earnings season dissipates.
January 22, 2007, 7:30am ... Resiliency of the S&P 500 index to closed at 1,430.50 4.13 (Friday's range 1425.19-1431.57) suggests that more money remains uncommitted than previously calculated. On Friday morning certain levels were established to insure we are not blind sided by a contracting market, but by day's end the general strength created difficulties in determining interim direction. However, with support at 1,410 and the failure to move above the 52-week high of 1,436.72, must consume our thoughts until something more effective happens. Within this wait-and-see mode, keep your powder dry and keep new commitments to special situations with a clear end point and reduce or eliminate any holding that appear to be lemons. ... Earnings will be the main agenda this week as the debate continues whether the economy is slowing, interest rates heading lower and a score of other concerns to give the market an excuse either to go up or down. Earnings forecasting may be the tip off to determine if the robust gains in stock prices continues. So far, this year has proven difficult to access, while confidence that the Fed will lower rates is gone. We have said since October '06 that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at 5.25% to defense the soft dollar. Being right has given the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund superior gains. After the market pauses to regain its momentum, test 1410 in the S&P and allow the robust earnings and strong economic reports to enhance enthusiasm then all will be fine once more in Stockville, as the general market works higher. ... Watch for more spin from Tuesday's State of the Union speech, possibly Bush would admit for the first time that global warning is real, remember he was the guy who kept refusing to believes the scientific community we have a major problem. Now days when Bush speaks no one listens, maybe like the purported weapons of mass destruction to get us into the Iraq war, he'll claim global warnings is another radical Arab conspiracy to destroy the world? The interaction of business and government is so focusing, the only prudent advice is determine how others outside the United States react to what the Bush Administration is perceived to do, and act accordingly to protect your investments. .... Today the Conference Board will release its index of leading economic indictors. Look for further improvements in the economy's health over the next six months. On Tuesday, the Richmond Federal Reserve is expected to report on regional manufacturing. The report will surely kill any hope for a reduction in interest rates. ... Again, for the record: New commitment should be confined to special situations with immediate horizons, reduce over-extended positions and eliminate weak performing stocks, while adding to your cash reserves.
Prior Best Ideas ....January 22, 2007... 2:44pm ... BUY Oplink Communication (OPLK) - last $18.99 Recent declines brings forward P/E to 17 times earnings. OPLK is a value play to $21.50. With a true float of 15.5 million shares and moderate institution participate in current level OPLK represents a special situation BUY in a weak market ahead of earnings. ... 2:36pm ... COVER SHORT ON EFUT - last $35.32. Improved macd suggest cove r.... 11:26am ... SHORT E-Future Information (EFUT) - last $36.91. After run up of $5.31 on Johnson & Johnson contract, EFUT has lost momentum to warrant short sales to $34.70.
.January 19, 2007... 2:41pm ... SHORT #2 ON ADTRAN inc. (ADTN) - last $22.37. Under limited liquidation after run up. Earnings due 01.23.07 and will disappoint. See comments below.
January 18, 2007, 12:56pm ... SELL IMOI - last $6.10. Under distribution for the entire day, Major selling pressure confirms liquidation and not conducive to higher profits. Suggest to closeout position..... BUY #2 ON Highway Holdings Ltd. (HIHO) - last $5.64. Originally suggested at $4.88 on 01.09.07. Add to position based on midterm fundamentals... 9.56am ... SHORT #2 ON Alcoa Inc. (AA) - last $31.07. At resistance with limited upside. Dollar average down with test $29.40.... 9:00am ... BUY Iomai Corporation (IMOI) $6.00 [pre-market]. IOMI received $14.4 contract to complete trials of its candidate vaccine, and may receive an additional $114 million upon successful completion of those trials. Float at 10.09 million shares while insiders control 67.4% of the outstanding suggests management's desire to enhance stock value. The new contract improves fundamentals. Speculative BUY with EXIT POINT at $9.50.
......Note:
Changes will be instantly broadcast on our Message
Board. Log-in,
it's free.
|
|
|
|
BeatTheDart.com offers a quick guide to
update all commentaries relating to entrance and exit points.
Now you are able to quickly bring into focus events that
affected your investment resources. Use this important tool
when considering asset redeployment or to modify capital
decisions. Indeed, most investments are sensitive to timing,
and accordingly many unforeseen developments can have a direct
correlation to profits or losses. BeatTheDart.com will
attempt to access events using avail bale information and
our database. Since BeatTheDart.com relies
on pattern recognition systems and probabilistic averages,
all new information has a direct relationship to what has
been previously reported. Thus , the information is only
unique at the moment retrieved. The objective is to update,
refine and present known facts that may have been deleted
or unknown at an earlier date. The intent is simple..BeatTheDart.com does
not report history and attempts to accurately access the
present as it relates to the future. Events and circumstances
are considered based on the most likely conclusions from
a given set of fact and probability theory. BeatTheDart.com does
not profess to be analysts, prophets or Wall Street wizards.
Most stock recommendations of others have hidden agendas
and reasons unrelated to the best interests of the recipient. BeatTheDart.com uses
all available facts and are merely summarized from a common
sense perspective. Emotional factors and unrelated circumstances
are removed from the equation, making the reporting unbiased.
The philosophy behind the web text is to accumulate available
evidence, present it in a simple format, and offer it for
you to judge; to assess and most assuredly to use prudence
and with sound judgment .
Remember: knowledge can be communicated;
wisdom is your department. |
|
