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| Dartline™ |
 represents immediate change - scroll down.
January 24, 2007, 7:30am
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What an interesting day? The S&P 500 index closed at 1,427.99, trading within a range of 1421.66 to 1431.33. As indicated, the market is vulnerable to erratic trading, Yesterday's action was driven by the energy price spike of over $2 a barrel and the instant response of Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM). In the past, energy prices had been the excuse to point direction for equities. When oil prices when up, stocks did the opposite. Like other myths, this one lack true value, except to gauge long term inflation. Still, the perception is that interest rates will decline. No idea! Stocks will eventually pull back as the Street understands that the Fed won't cut interest rates.For now, allow the S&P project our next move. With the index above 1410, we must remain flexible, and commit funds on both sides, while reducing exposure to deadbeat stocks. ... The Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund is sitting with a pile of junk even though the realized gains this month to date have reached an all time high. This too must change.
January 23, 2007, 1:08pm ...  S&P 500 index at 1430.45 7.49 has moved above technical resistance to suggest higher prices. Interesting development when considering the broad advance and the level of international fund buying. However, remain defensive. ... 7:30am ... "Difficulties to determine interim direction" was solved yesterday. The S&P 500- index closed at 1,422.95  7.55, with a day's range of 1420.40-1431.39. The stock market is vulnerable to erratic trading, and will continue. In general, the noise on the street points to a nervous and lower market. Earnings and economic data has signaled that growth is cooling, but does it mean sustained discounts in equity prices? A test to 1,410 is likely and if holds, stocks have the potential to rally, especially as earnings season dissipates. On balance be watchful for stocks that become oversold, while continually assessing your portfolio.
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View
From the Bottom - A roundup of the day's performance |
January 23, 2007, 4:00 pm. ... Day Trader for the day show no activity. ... Adjustments to the 60-Day Summary list shows; (1) covered short on ADTN for a gain of $22600.00; (2) sold CHHH.OB for a gain of 28000.00; (3) covered short on CAKE for a loss of $18,400.00.00. Realized changes for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio ("SFHF") is a gain of $32,200.00, and for the month to date a profit of $441,650.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses.
January 22, 2007, 4:00 pm. ... Day Trader for the day show profits of $31,800.00 ... Adjustments to the 60-Day Summary list: (1) sold PFE for a gain of $49,800.00; (2) covered entire short position in POZN for a loss of $21,800.00. Net realized changes for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio ("SFHF") is a gain of $59,800.00. and for the month to date a profit of $409,450.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses.
For the fourth calendar quarter of 2006 on the SFHF portfolio. Total performance, including unrealized gains, was $1,027,724.90 on weighted capital of $4,832,125.72, representing 0.2127%. for the period ending December 31, 2006.
*** based on the weighted portfolio value adjusted daily.
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.. January 24, 2007, 7:30. No action.
January 23, 2007... 3:21pm .. BUY Motion Picture Group (MPRG.PK) - last $0.44* MPRG.PK is a film/entertainment financing and production company, holds an interest in "Hounddog," a full length drama featuring Dakota Fanning, Robin Wright-Penn, David Morse, Afemo Omiliami and Piper Laune. National distribution rights would enhance value to the stock that already has advanced from $0.20 to current price in three trading sessions. A risk candidate in the "buyer-beware" category, wherein the purchaser may loss all his/her investment, yet offers sufficient action to be considered a 'horse race bet." As always required, consult with your financial advisor before commitment. [* executed price]... 2:07pm ... BUY Nucryst Pharmaceuticals Corporation (NCST) - last $4.36. After failure od Phase 2 clinical trials for eczema NCST dropped from $16.88 to current level. The prognosis was not that bad since 35% efficacy should prove adequate. However,, the placebo standard may have compromised results. Announcement by management on reconstituted results is due shortly. Add to position and mid=term BUY with no EXIT POINT determined.
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... BUY Integrated Device Technology Inc. (IDTI) - last $15.19. IDTI designs, manufactures and markets semiconductor items in three areas: communications, computing and networking. Based on product line, IDTI is poised to outperform the semiconductor industry. With excellent fundamentals as forward P/E to April '08 projected to 12 times, IDTI is a clear value play ahead of earnings after the close. BUY with near term EXIT POINT at $18.25.
Ticker |
Last
Trade |
Direction |
Entrance
Point |
Exit
Point |
| IDTI |
January 23, 2007 |
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$15.19 |
18.25 |
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| P/E Ratio: |
* |
| Forward P/E Ratio: |
12 |
| Float Shares2: |
198.76 M |
| Company Guidance: |
* |
| Recommendation3: |
UBS initiated as buy / Global Crown Capital initiated as overweight |
| Support4: |
14.85 |
| Resistance5: |
19.10
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| Under Accumulation6: |
yes |
| Under Distribution7: |
limited |
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... DAY TRADER
.. January 24, 2007, 7:30am. No action.
January 23, 2007, 7:30am. No action.
... From the 60-Day Summary list
... January 24, 2007, 7:30am. No action.
January 23, 2007... 3:48pm ... SELL CHHH.OB - last $0.135. Take profit. Irregular trading pattern.... 10:02am ... COVER SHORT ON CAKE - last $27.50 . Take loss. Under accumulation as above interim resistance. ... 9:40am ... COVER SHORTS ON ADTN - last $ 22.24. Take profit.
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NET VALUE OF Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund (SFHF) portfolio for the week ending 12.29.06 ....................,....... . $5,164,000.00
REALIZEDGAINS (LOSSES) FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ........................ ......... $277,601.00
REALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio. ...............................$338,049.00
REALIZEDGAINS (LOSSES) FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ...... .......................... $371,020.00
REALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY TO DATE in the SFHF potfolio............... $441,650.00
UNREALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) in the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio.
January 23, 2007, 4:00pm ....239,506.23
January 22, 2007, 4:00pm .. 133,011.83
January 19, 2007, 4:00pm ... 138,809.94
January 18, 2007, 4:00pm.. ...160,874.03
January 17, 2007, 4:00pm .....194,436.17
January 16, 2007, 4:00pm .....092,123.51
January 12, 2007, 4:00pm ... 132,223.40
January 11, 2007, 4:00pm......153,346.68
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Prior Dartline summaries ...January 22, 2007, 7:30am ... Resiliency of the S&P 500 index to closed at 1,430.50 4.13 (Friday's range 1425.19-1431.57) suggests that more money remains uncommitted than previously calculated. On Friday morning certain levels were established to insure we are not blind sided by a contracting market, but by day's end the general strength created difficulties in determining interim direction. However, with support at 1,410 and the failure to move above the 52-week high of 1,436.72, must consume our thoughts until something more effective happens. Within this wait-and-see mode, keep your powder dry and keep new commitments to special situations with a clear end point and reduce or eliminate any holding that appear to be lemons. ... Earnings will be the main agenda this week as the debate continues whether the economy is slowing, interest rates heading lower and a score of other concerns to give the market an excuse either to go up or down. Earnings forecasting may be the tip off to determine if the robust gains in stock prices continues. So far, this year has proven difficult to access, while confidence that the Fed will lower rates is gone. We have said since October '06 that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at 5.25% to defense the soft dollar. Being right has given the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund superior gains. After the market pauses to regain its momentum, test 1410 in the S&P and allow the robust earnings and strong economic reports to enhance enthusiasm then all will be fine once more in Stockville, as the general market works higher. ... Watch for more spin from Tuesday's State of the Union speech, possibly Bush would admit for the first time that global warning is real, remember he was the guy who kept refusing to believes the scientific community we have a major problem. Now days when Bush speaks no one listens, maybe like the purported weapons of mass destruction to get us into the Iraq war, he'll claim global warnings is another radical Arab conspiracy to destroy the world? The interaction of business and government is so focusing, the only prudent advice is determine how others outside the United States react to what the Bush Administration is perceived to do, and act accordingly to protect your investments. .... Today the Conference Board will release its index of leading economic indictors. Look for further improvements in the economy's health over the next six months. On Tuesday, the Richmond Federal Reserve is expected to report on regional manufacturing. The report will surely kill any hope for a reduction in interest rates. ... Again, for the record: New commitment should be confined to special situations with immediate horizons, reduce over-extended positions and eliminate weak performing stocks, while adding to your cash reserves.
Prior Best Ideas ....January 22, 2007... 2:44pm ... BUY Oplink Communication (OPLK) - last $18.99 Recent declines brings forward P/E to 17 times earnings. OPLK is a value play to $21.50. With a true float of 15.5 million shares and moderate institution participate in current level OPLK represents a special situation BUY in a weak market ahead of earnings. ... 2:36pm ... COVER SHORT ON EFUT - last $35.32. Improved macd suggest cove r.... 11:26am ... SHORT E-Future Information (EFUT) - last $36.91. After run up of $5.31 on Johnson & Johnson contract, EFUT has lost momentum to warrant short sales to $34.70.
.January 19, 2007... 2:41pm ... SHORT #2 ON ADTRAN inc. (ADTN) - last $22.37. Under limited liquidation after run up. Earnings due 01.23.07 and will disappoint. See comments below.
January 18, 2007, 12:56pm ... SELL IMOI - last $6.10. Under distribution for the entire day, Major selling pressure confirms liquidation and not conducive to higher profits. Suggest to closeout position..... BUY #2 ON Highway Holdings Ltd. (HIHO) - last $5.64. Originally suggested at $4.88 on 01.09.07. Add to position based on midterm fundamentals... 9.56am ... SHORT #2 ON Alcoa Inc. (AA) - last $31.07. At resistance with limited upside. Dollar average down with test $29.40.... 9:00am ... BUY Iomai Corporation (IMOI) $6.00 [pre-market]. IOMI received $14.4 contract to complete trials of its candidate vaccine, and may receive an additional $114 million upon successful completion of those trials. Float at 10.09 million shares while insiders control 67.4% of the outstanding suggests management's desire to enhance stock value. The new contract improves fundamentals. Speculative BUY with EXIT POINT at $9.50.
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