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| Dartline™ |
 represents immediate change - scroll down.
January 22, 2007, 7:30am
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Resiliency of the S&P 500 index to closed at 1,430.50  4.13 (Friday's range 1425.19-1431.57) suggests that more money remains uncommitted than previously calculated. On Friday morning certain levels were established to insure we are not blind sided by a contracting market, but by day's end the general strength created difficulties in determining interim direction. However, with support at 1,410 and the failure to move above the 52-week high of 1,436.72, must consume our thoughts until something more effective happens. Within this wait-and-see mode, keep your powder dry and keep new commitments to special situations with a clear end point and reduce or eliminate any holding that appear to be lemons. ... Earnings will be the main agenda this week as the debate continues whether the economy is slowing, interest rates heading lower and a score of other concerns to give the market an excuse either to go up or down. Earnings forecasting may be the tip off to determine if the robust gains in stock prices continues. So far, this year has proven difficult to access, while confidence that the Fed will lower rates is gone. We have said since October '06 that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at 5.25% to defense the soft dollar. Being right has given the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund superior gains. After the market pauses to regain its momentum, test 1410 in the S&P and allow the robust earnings and strong economic reports to enhance enthusiasm then all will be fine once more in Stockville, as the general market works higher. ... Watch for more spin from Tuesday's State of the Union speech, possibly Bush would admit for the first time that global warning is real, remember he was the guy who kept refusing to believes the scientific community we have a major problem. Now days when Bush speaks no one listens, maybe like the purported weapons of mass destruction to get us into the Iraq war, he'll claim global warnings is another radical Arab conspiracy to destroy the world? The interaction of business and government is so focusing, the only prudent advice is determine how others outside the United States react to what the Bush Administration is perceived to do, and act accordingly to protect your investments. .... Today the Conference Board will release its index of leading economic indictors. Look for further improvements in the economy's health over the next six months. On Tuesday, the Richmond Federal Reserve is expected to report on regional manufacturing. The report will surely kill any hope for a reduction in interest rates. ... Again, for the record: New commitment should be confined to special situations with immediate horizons, reduce over-extended positions and eliminate weak performing stocks, while adding to your cash reserves.
January 19, 2007, 7:30am  So much for being right! S&P 500 index closed at 1,426.37 4.25, trading in a range of 1424.21-1433.30. Important factor in the numbers was the observation that the index failed to top 1,435.27, the 52-week high. No a good sign and the first indication that the broad market cannot go higher until it consolidate at a lower level. Watch for a test at 1,410.00 as the gate pass to lower equity prices. Now is the time to reduce your positions and accumulate cash. Any investment that lack a "special interest" or above average forward fundamentals must be liquidated since within 60 days you can buy the same stocks at 20% or lower. Isolate stocks that appear good candidates to short. Indeed, to change this opinion, the S&P must reach 1,450.00 the the near term.. ... Overview of the U.S. dollar: The dollar's fate is in the hands of the Fed, which has two other problems - inflation and residential housing. If the central bank believes inflation increases, rates will climb. Should the home market, employment or global economy contracts, they will lower rates, which will kill the dollar. A 1/2 a point reduction of interest rates to 4.75% may translate to a 5% drop in the currency in 2007. Considering the 10% drop in 2006, the U.S. dollar would have dropped 35% against the world's major currency since 2002. Thus, the international reserve status of the dollar will clearly be challenged. The bottomline: the Fed cannot afford to lower interest rates and must maintain 5.25% for the entire year - as one of our 7 predictions of 2007..
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View
From the Bottom - A roundup of the day's performance |
January 22, 2007, 4:00 pm. ... Day Trader for the day show profits of $31,800.00 ... Adjustments to the 60-Day Summary list: (1) sold PFE for a gain of $49,800.00; (2) covered entire short position in POZN for a loss of $21,800.00. Net realized changes for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio ("SFHF") is a gain of $59,800.00. and for the month to date a profit of $409,450.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses.
January 19, 2007, 4:00 pm. ... Day Trader for the day show profits of $10,600.00. ... Adjustments to the 60-Day Summary list shows; (1) covered short on AA for a loss of $53,700.00; (2) sold AEZS for a loss of $8,500.00. Realized changes for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio ("SFHF") is a loss of 62,200.00.00, and for the month to date a profit of $349,650..00, excluding unrealized gains or losses.
For the fourth calendar quarter of 2006 on the SFHF portfolio. Total performance, including unrealized gains, was $1,027,724.90 on weighted capital of $4,832,125.72, representing 0.2127%. for the period ending December 31, 2006.
*** based on the weighted portfolio value adjusted daily.
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.. January 22, 2007
... 2:44pm ... BUY Oplink Communication (OPLK) - last $18.99 Recent declines brings forward P/E to 17 times earnings. OPLK is a value play to $21.50. With a true float of 15.5 million shares and moderate institution participate in current level OPLK represents a special situation BUY in a weak market ahead of earnings.
... 2:36pm ... COVER SHORT ON EFUT - last $35.32. Improved macd suggest cover.
... 11:26am ... SHORT E-Future Information (EFUT) - last $36.91. After run up of $5.31 on Johnson & Johnson contract, EFUT has lost momentum to warrant short sales to $34.70.
January 19, 2007... 2:41pm ... SHORT #2 ON ADTRAN inc. (ADTN) - last $22.37. Under limited liquidation after run up. Earnings due 01.23.07 and will disappoint. See comments below.
January 18, 2007, 12:56pm ... SELL IMOI - last $6.10. Under distribution for the entire day, Major selling pressure confirms liquidation and not conducive to higher profits. Suggest to closeout position..... BUY #2 ON Highway Holdings Ltd. (HIHO) - last $5.64. Originally suggested at $4.88 on 01.09.07. Add to position based on midterm fundamentals... 9.56am ... SHORT #2 ON Alcoa Inc. (AA) - last $31.07. At resistance with limited upside. Dollar average down with test $29.40.... 9:00am ... BUY Iomai Corporation (IMOI) $6.00 [pre-market]. IOMI received $14.4 contract to complete trials of its candidate vaccine, and may receive an additional $114 million upon successful completion of those trials. Float at 10.09 million shares while insiders control 67.4% of the outstanding suggests management's desire to enhance stock value. The new contract improves fundamentals. Speculative BUY with EXIT POINT at $9.50.
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January 17, 2007, 7:30 am... SHORT ADTRAN Inc. (ADTN) - last $23.34. ADTN appears in technical decline that should accelerate over the near term. Earnings call scheduled for 01.23.07, 10:30 am Est and for the quarter projections are $0.23 vs $0.41. With softness in order flow beyond normal seasonality, ADTN may need the next three quarters to work it out. In the interim the stock should be weak and create significant downside pressure. A test to $20.71 is likely. SHORT for near term decline.
Ticker |
Last
Trade |
Direction |
Entrance
Point |
Exit
Point |
| ADTN |
January 17, 2007 |
|
$23.34 |
* |
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| P/E Ratio: |
19 |
| Forward P/E Ratio: |
24 |
| Float Shares2: |
64.3 M |
| Company Guidance: |
* |
| Recommendation3: |
downgrade by Morgan Joseph/ downgrade by Jefferies & Co |
| Support4: |
20.00 |
| Resistance5: |
24.80
|
| Under Accumulation6: |
no |
| Under Distribution7: |
limited |
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... DAY TRADER
.. January 22, 2007, 7:30am. No action.
... [EFUT was originally positioned as short for near term but covered during the day.]
January 19, 2007.. 3:55pm ... COVER SHORT #2 ON JDSU - last $17.35.... 1:59pm ... COVER SHORT #2 ON CWTR - last $20.35. Take loss.... 12:20pm ... SHORT #2 ON CWTR - last $20.07.... 11:58am ... COVER SHORT ON CWTR - last $19.80... 11:47am ... SHORT #2 ON JDSU - last $17.39.... 10:06am ... COVER SHORT ON JDSU - last $17.10. ... 9:54am ... SHORT Coldwater Creek (CWTR) - last $ 20.15. After earnings surprise to downside CWTR lost direction. Decline to test $19.00 likely.,... 9:46am ... SHORT JDS Uniphase Corporation (JDSU) - last $17.52. Unable to hold gain, under liquidation. Poor sign with guidance.
... From the 60-Day Summary list
... January 22, 2007
... 3:21pm ... COVER SHORT POSITION ON POZN - last $16.48. Take profit with intent to revisit short.
... 9:15am ... SELL Pfizer Inc. (PFE) - last $27.22. Originally suggested at $24.73 on December 4, 2006, PFE may experience sluggish growth prospects and be fully prices of the near term. Take profit with view to revisit later.
January 19, 2007,... 3:38pm ... SELL ZVUE - last $3.56. Proposed sale of equity will materially dilute existing shareholders. Announcement not anticipated. Suggest to take loss.... 1:08pm ... SELL AEZS - last $4.18. Limited upside in current market environment. ... 12:10pm ... COVER SHORT ON AA - last $31.14. Take loss. AA moved above interim resistance of $31.00 with conviction. Buy-back program no good for maintaining short position. Take loss.
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NET VALUE OF Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund (SFHF) portfolio for the week ending 12.29.06 ....................,....... . $5,164,000.00
REALIZEDGAINS (LOSSES) FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ........................ ......... $277,601.00
REALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio. ...............................$338,049.00
REALIZEDGAINS (LOSSES) FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ...... .......................... $371,020.00
REALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY TO DATE in the SFHF potfolio............... $409,450.00
UNREALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) in the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio.
January 22, 2007, 4:00pm .. .133,011.83
January 19, 2007, 4:00pm ... 138,809.94
January 18, 2007, 4:00pm.. ...160,874.03
January 17, 2007, 4:00pm .....194,436.17
January 16, 2007, 4:00pm .....092,123.51
January 12, 2007, 4:00pm ... 132,223.40
January 11, 2007, 4:00pm......153,346.68
January 10, 2007, 4:00pm ....... 56,298.64
January 9, 2007, 4:00pm ..........29,352.88
\_____________________________________
Prior Dartline summaries ... January 18, 2007, 7:30am In a consolidation phase, the S&P 500 index closed at 1,430.62 1.28, trading in a range of 1428.57-1435.27. A breakout to 1,450.00 is required to establish a continuous trend line based on the underlying dynamics of the index progressing from 1325 to the current level. Not an arbitrary number, but a inclination of the probability to advance or decline with a given cycle. Whether the index increases in value is not the issue, since eventually it will; but when and under what circumstances will the event occur. On a time basis, the S&P 500 must achieve 1,450.00 within the next thirty days. If it does not happen, the likelihood for a contract is very high, possibility to test 1,345.00. For the present, nothing has changed to warrant concern. Focus on 1,410 as critical support, and naturally, a violation of that number signals a major directional change in the equities market. ... As suggested yesterday's morning commentary, the Labor Department reported PPI, an indictor of inflation, rose by 0.9% in December - slower than in November, but fast than projected. Thus, inflation may be a concern, but the Fed would let it run and maintain interest rate at 5.25%. Still, the financial results to be released in the coming weeks will be watched closely for signs of strength or weakness in the economy... A concern may be "food inflation," an issue created by the high prices for corn and other grains. With the government meddling with alternative energy sources, especially ethanol as a renewable source of hydrocarbons, the normal market forces governing grains is lost. The result - food inflation. A problem that may accelerates and will directly effect equity prices.
Prior Best Ideas .....January 17, 2007, 7:30am. No action.
January 16, 2007... 1:17pm ... COVER SHORT ON SYMC - last $18.10. Take profit as up volume improved,... 9:39am ... SHORT Symantec Corporation (SYMC) - last $18.82. Even with decline this morning, SYMC is under distribution. Support at $17.35.
.January 16, 2007... 3:05pm ... BUY InnerWorkings Inc. (INWK) - last $13.15. Barron's article overdone. Under accumulation after 3+ point decline. More on Message Board..... 2:32pm ... BUY FUL - last $28.74. Volume increased by size while liquidation is in smaller units. Such dynamics suggests uncertainty since earnings are due after the close. We project a 15% increase from '05 quarter, while the street forecast 12%.... 12:51pm ... SELL entire position in FUL - last $29.24. Failed support above $29.60 which the MACD contracts. May revisit before close..... 10:34 am ... BUY CEL SCI Corporation (CVM) - last $0.74. Recent announcement on phase III commencement by FDA has created enhanced value to CVM. Speculative risk warranted..... 10:12am ... BUY #2 FUL - last $28.60. Unusual liquidation in small pieces appears to suggest profit taking from recent run up. Add to long position while dollar averaging..... 9:44am . BUY HB Fuller (FUL) - last $29.40. Under accumulation ahead of earnings. See 01.12.07 remarks below.
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