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| Dartline™ |
 represents immediate change - scroll down.
January 18, 2007, 7:30am
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In a consolidation phase, the S&P 500 index closed at 1,430.62  1.28, trading in a range of 1428.57-1435.27. A breakout to 1,450.00 is required to establish a continuous trend line based on the underlying dynamics of the index progressing from 1325 to the current level. Not an arbitrary number, but a inclination of the probability to advance or decline with a given cycle. Whether the index increases in value is not the issue, since eventually it will; but when and under what circumstances will the event occur. On a time basis, the S&P 500 must achieve 1,450.00 within the next thirty days. If it does not happen, the likelihood for a contract is very high, possibility to test 1,345.00. For the present, nothing has changed to warrant concern. Focus on 1,410 as critical support, and naturally, a violation of that number signals a major directional change in the equities market. ... As suggested yesterday's morning commentary, the Labor Department reported PPI, an indictor of inflation, rose by 0.9% in December - slower than in November, but fast than projected. Thus, inflation may be a concern, but the Fed would let it run and maintain interest rate at 5.25%. Still, the financial results to be released in the coming weeks will be watched closely for signs of strength or weakness in the economy... A concern may be "food inflation," an issue created by the high prices for corn and other grains. With the government meddling with alternative energy sources, especially ethanol as a renewable source of hydrocarbons, the normal market forces governing grains is lost. The result - food inflation. A problem that may accelerates and will directly effect equity prices.
January 17, 2007, 12:30pm ... Larger than expected rise in wholesale inflation as reported by Labor Department. Producer price index rose 0.9% in December. Core PPI which excludes food and energy prices rose 0.2%. Numbers suggests that Wall Street would consider inflation to work stocks lower. Follow action of S&P 5000 index to track direction. .... 7:30 am ...The resiliency of the S&P 500 index to advance despite contracting volume and lack of conviction in most sectors indicates that the underlying strength cannot be denied. Closing at 1,431.90  1.17, the index's range was 1428-1433.93, establishing an interim high. At this point, one cannot deny the tape. For now, remain aggressive, but prudent - a precarious stance yet doable until a better idea unfolds. ... Consumer Price Index (CPI) due on the 18th will be our first indication that inflation has moderated. CPI is a measure of the price level of a fixed market basket of goods and services purchased by consumers. As the most widely cited inflation indicator, it is used to calculate cost of living adjustments for government programs. Look for a controllable number that should not worry the market. Also on the 18th, the Leading Indicators Report should be issued, representing a compendium of economic indicators: new orders, jobless claims, money supply, average workweek, building permits and stock prices. On average the report issued by the Commerce Department is anticipated to be 0.2%, a slight improvement from the prior period. The Philadelphia Fed report due on the same date should show to major surprises. On the 19th the Michigan Sentiment index for January should show 92.4 vs 91.7. Any deviation below 92.4 would create a selling wave in equities. In conclusion: no significant inflation,, the Fed to leave interest rate at 5.25% and the U.S. dollar to moderate on the upside against the other major currencies.
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View
From the Bottom - A roundup of the day's performance |
January 18, 2007, 4:00 pm. ... Day Trader for the day show profits of $12,400.00 ... Adjustments to the 60-Day Summary list: (1) no action. Net realized changes for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio ("SFHF") is a gain of $12,400.00. and for the month to date a profit of $409,750.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses.
January 17, 2007, 4:00 pm. ... Day Trader for the day shows no activity. ... Adjustments to the 60-Day Summary list shows; (1) sold FUL for a loss of $7,400.00; (2) sold INWK for a gain of $10,800.00. Realized changes for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio ("SFHF") is a gain of $3,400.00, and for the month to date a profit of $397,350.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses.
Results for the fourth calendar quarter of 2006 on the SFHF portfolio. Total performance, including unrealized gains, was $1,027,724.90 on weighted capital of $4,832,125.72, representing 0.2127%. for the period ending December 31, 2006.
*** based on the weighted portfolio value adjusted daily.
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.. January 18, 2007
... 12:56pm ... SELL IMOI - last $6.10. Under distribution for the entire day, Major selling pressure confirms liquidation and not conducive to higher profits. Suggest to closeout position.
.... BUY #2 ON Highway Holdings Ltd. (HIHO) - last $5.64. Originally suggested at $4.88 on 01.09.07. Add to position based on midterm fundamentals.
... 9.56am ... SHORT #2 ON Alcoa Inc. (AA) - last $31.07. At resistance with limited upside. Dollar average down with test $29.40.
... 9:00am ... BUY Iomai Corporation (IMOI) $6.00 [pre-market]. IOMI received $14.4 contract to complete trials of its candidate vaccine, and may receive an additional $114 million upon successful completion of those trials. Float at 10.09 million shares while insiders control 67.4% of the outstanding suggests management's desire to enhance stock value. The new contract improves fundamentals. Speculative BUY with EXIT POINT at $9.50.
January 17, 2007, 7:30 am... SHORT ADTRAN Inc. (ADTN) - last $23.34. ADTN appears in technical decline that should accelerate over the near term. Earnings call scheduled for 01.23.07, 10:30 am Est and for the quarter projections are $0.23 vs $0.41. With softness in order flow beyond normal seasonality, ADTN may need the next three quarters to work it out. In the interim the stock should be weak and create significant downside pressure. A test to $20.71 is likely. SHORT for near term decline.
Ticker |
Last
Trade |
Direction |
Entrance
Point |
Exit
Point |
| ADTN |
January 17, 2007 |
|
$23.34 |
* |
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| P/E Ratio: |
19 |
| Forward P/E Ratio: |
24 |
| Float Shares2: |
64.3 M |
| Company Guidance: |
* |
| Recommendation3: |
downgrade by Morgan Joseph/ downgrade by Jefferies & Co |
| Support4: |
20.00 |
| Resistance5: |
24.80
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| Under Accumulation6: |
no |
| Under Distribution7: |
limited |
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... DAY TRADER
.. January 18, 2007
... 1:26pm ... COVER SHORT ON NVLS - last $30.30. NVLS found support with improving macd.
... 10:30am .... SHORT Novellus Systems (NVLS) - last $30.72. Under moderate distribution which appears to accelerate, Trade down to $29.75 likely.
January 17, 2007, 7:30am. No action.
January 16, 2007... 1:17pm ... COVER SHORT ON SYMC - last $18.10. Take profit as up volume improved,... 9:39am ... SHORT Symantec Corporation (SYMC) - last $18.82. Even with decline this morning, SYMC is under distribution. Support at $17.35.
... From the 60-Day Summary list
... January 18, 2007, 7:30am. No action.
January 17, 2007... 9:41am .. SELL H. B. Fuller (FUL) - last $28.00. Take loss.... 9:39am ... SELL InnerWorkers Inc. (INWK) - last $13.51. Take profit.
_________________________________
NET VALUE OF Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund (SFHF) portfolio for the week ending 12.29.06 ....................,....... . $5,164,000.00
REALIZEDGAINS (LOSSES) FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ........................ ......... $277,601.00
REALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio. ...............................$338,049.00
REALIZEDGAINS (LOSSES) FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ...... .......................... $371,020.00
REALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY TO DATE in the SFHF potfolio................. $409,750.00
UNREALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) in the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio.
January 18, 2007, 4:00pm.. ...160,874.03
January 17, 2007, 4:00pm .....194,436.17
January 16, 2007, 4:00pm .....092,123.51
January 12, 2007, 4:00pm ... 132,223.40
January 11, 2007, 4:00pm......153,346.68
January 10, 2007, 4:00pm ... 56,298.64
January 9, 2007, 4:00pm .......29,352.88
January 8, 2007, 4:00pm ...... 41,350.75
\_____________________________________
Prior Dartline summaries ... January 16, 2007, 7:30 am. World stock markets closed higher on Monday, with European indexes up on merger action, while U.S. markets were closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday. In the morning, most Asian markets are up: Hong Kong's benchmark index remains above 20,0000; Hang Send Index up 2.3% to close at 20,068.56, while Tokyo's Nikkei 225 index advanced 0.93$ to close at 17,209.92. All in all, the equity markets are still considered "cheap" as cash on the sidelines continues to be at record levels. The unprecedented liquidity can be directly traced to the China Factor with its balance of payment surplus over $1.2 trillion and a moderating U.S. dollar. Rising inflation can be contained as oil trades around $53 a barrel, 13% decline since January 1st. .... S&P 500 index closed at 1,430.73, with Friday's range 1422.58-1431.23. Remain positive while the index holds above 1,410.00, as the 52 weeks high is 1,431.81. How the index reacts above the high should give us a better idea for the broader equity market.
Prior Best Ideas ......January 16, 2007... 3:05pm ... BUY InnerWorkings Inc. (INWK) - last $13.15. Barron's article overdone. Under accumulation after 3+ point decline. More on Message Board..... 2:32pm ... BUY FUL - last $28.74. Volume increased by size while liquidation is in smaller units. Such dynamics suggests uncertainty since earnings are due after the close. We project a 15% increase from '05 quarter, while the street forecast 12%.... 12:51pm ... SELL entire position in FUL - last $29.24. Failed support above $29.60 which the MACD contracts. May revisit before close..... 10:34 am ... BUY CEL SCI Corporation (CVM) - last $0.74. Recent announcement on phase III commencement by FDA has created enhanced value to CVM. Speculative risk warranted..... 10:12am ... BUY #2 FUL - last $28.60. Unusual liquidation in small pieces appears to suggest profit taking from recent run up. Add to long position while dollar averaging..... 9:44am . BUY HB Fuller (FUL) - last $29.40. Under accumulation ahead of earnings. See 01.12.07 remarks below.
January 12, 2007... 10:04 pm .... Correction as to price - OBCI - last $4.55 at 10:47:45 am.10:47am .... BUY Ocean Bio Chem Inc. (OBCI) -last $4.49. Under accumulation after Wal-Mart contract. With true float of 1.9 million shares, OBCI can accelerate in value as earnings improve. Speculative BUY with no EXIT POINT. . Management controls 55% of stock, while true float is 14.7 million shares. Midterm speculative BUY with EXIT POINT determined at $3.75.
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