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January 16, 2007, 7:30 am

World stock markets closed higher on Monday, with European indexes up on merger action, while U.S. markets were closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday. In the morning, most Asian markets are up: Hong Kong's benchmark index remains above 20,0000; Hang Send Index up 2.3% to close at 20,068.56, while Tokyo's Nikkei 225 index advanced 0.93$ to close at 17,209.92. All in all, the equity markets are still considered "cheap" as cash on the sidelines continues to be at record levels. The unprecedented liquidity can be directly traced to the China Factor with its balance of payment surplus over $1.2 trillion and a moderating U.S. dollar. Rising inflation can be contained as oil trades around $53 a barrel, 13% decline since January 1st. .... S&P 500 index closed at 1,430.73, with Friday's range 1422.58-1431.23. Remain positive while the index holds above 1,410.00, as the 52 weeks high is 1,431.81. How the index reacts above the high should give us a better idea for the broader equity market.

On January 15, 2007 general market are closed to celebrate Martin Luther King, Jr. Day. No posting until January 16, 2007.

January 12, 2007, 7:30am ... ... Everything is good in Stockville. The S&P 500 index closed at 1,423.82 8.97 with yesterday's range 1415.66 - 1427.12. Within striking distance of 1,429.42 (January 3rd high), the index has established enough resiliency to remain confident that the general market will not have a major correction in the short term. Nothing new to warrant the strength except aggressive international money added to the bull's pile of surplus cash. A moderate U.S. dollar, declining oil prices and drop in jobless claims supported the optimism about the U.S. economy. A clear indicator is Asia markets rally in early trading and should spread to Europe. However, the increased values looks too good, and be ready to pull the trigger if the technical support of 1,410 in the S&P is violated on the downside. For now, go with the flow, maintain positions and balance surplus cash with special situation plays and liquidate any laggards that lack a "story."

 

.. Purpose of the arrows: - projecting that DJIA, Nasdaq and S&P barometers will close higher at the end of the day. - projected consolidating barometers with limited directional action. - projecting all three barometers declining for the days. .... Our Message Board and "Contact Us" elements are available at no cost to keep you up-to-date with timely information. Our Fantasy Hedge Fund gives you a concise overview of how investment ideas are executed. All transactions are posted on the Message Board

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View From the Bottom - A roundup of the day's performance

January 16, 2007, 4:00 pm. ... Day Trader for the day show profits of $19,200.00. ... Adjustments to the 60-Day Summary list: (1) no action. Net realized changes for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio ("SFHF") is a gain of $19,200.00 and for the month to date a profit of $393,950.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses..

January 12, 2007, 4:00 pm. ... Day Trader for the day shows no activity. ... Adjustments to the 60-Day Summary list shows; (1) sold FUL for a gain of $57,800.00. Realized changes for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio ("SFHF") is a gain of $57,800.00. and for the month to date a profit of $374,750.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses.

. Results for the fourth calendar quarter of 2006 on the SFHF portfolio. Total performance, including unrealized gains, was $1,027,724.90 on weighted capital of $4,832,125.72, representing 0.2127%. for the period ending December 31, 2006.

*** based on the weighted portfolio value adjusted daily.

 

 
best idea

.. January 16, 2007

... 3:05pm ... BUY InnerWorkings Inc. (INWK) - last $13.15. Barron's article overdone. Under accumulation after 3+ point decline. More on Message Board.

.... 2:32pm ... BUY FUL - last $28.74. Volume increased by size while liquidation is in smaller units. Such dynamics suggests uncertainty since earnings are due after the close. We project a 15% increase from '05 quarter, while the street forecast 12%.

... 12:51pm ... SELL entire position in FUL - last $29.24. Failed support above $29.60 which the MACD contracts. May revisit before close.

.... 10:34 am ... BUY CEL SCI Corporation (CVM) - last $0.74. Recent announcement on phase III commencement by FDA has created enhanced value to CVM. Speculative risk warranted.

.... 10:12am ... BUY #2 FUL - last $28.60. Unusual liquidation in small pieces appears to suggest profit taking from recent run up. Add to long position while dollar averaging.

.... 9:44am . BUY HB Fuller (FUL) - last $29.40. Under accumulation ahead of earnings. See 01.12.07 remarks below.

___________________________________________

. January 12, 2007... 10:04 pm .... Correction as to price - OBCI - last $4.55 at 10:47:45 am.10:47am .... BUY Ocean Bio Chem Inc. (OBCI) -last $4.49. Under accumulation after Wal-Mart contract. With true float of 1.9 million shares, OBCI can accelerate in value as earnings improve. Speculative BUY with no EXIT POINT.

... January 11, 2007, 11:42pm ... BUY ZI Corporation (ZICA) - last 1.84. Creates software to predict text input for messaging in 54 languages. Under accumulation as institutional sponsorship positioned the stock. Launching Qix with T-Mobile in UK and reconstituted Board of Directors, the company appears set to broaden market penetration. Management controls 55% of stock, while true float is 14.7 million shares. Midterm speculative BUY with EXIT POINT determined at $3.75.

... January 10, 2007 ... 12:36pm ... BUY Scottish Re Group (SCT) - last $4.70. Buy now to average down as MACD level has improved... 9:35am .. FUL opened at $26.70 ....BUY HB Fuller Company (FUL) - last $26.85. Revisited for the second time, FUL should materially benefit from lower hydrocarbon prices, especially ethylene and benzene which represents over 50% of the company's raw material tied to these derivatives. With the completed sales of its powder coating business, FUL will add $64 to $68 million in pretax income to the fourth quarter. Excluding this special gain, earnings for the quarter ending November '06 should be $0.465 vs $0.400 from a year ago, while the average analyst estimates for the company's '07 earnings is $1.61 per share. At 16 times forward P/E, FUL is under priced versus its competitors. On a technical basis, FUL is striking distance from its 52-week high of $28.25 and breakout to the $34-$36 range, BUY as midterm value play. No EXIT POINT determined.

Ticker
Last Trade
Direction
Entrance Point
Exit Point
FUL
January 10, 2007
$26.85
*


P/E Ratio: 20
Forward P/E Ratio: 16
Float Shares2: 58.45 M
Company Guidance: *
Recommendation3: JP Morgan upgrade to overweight / KeyBanc Capital Mkts/McDonald initiated to buy
Support4: 26.75
Resistance5:

28.25

Under Accumulation6: yes
Under Distribution7: limited

 
today's action

... DAY TRADER

... January 16, 2007

... 1:17pm ... COVER SHORT ON SYMC - last $18.10. Take profit as up volume improved,

... 9:39am ... SHORT Symantec Corporation (SYMC) - last $18.82. Even with decline this morning, SYMC is under distribution. Support at $17.35.

January 12, 2007, 7:30am. No action.

January 11, 2007, 7:30am. No action.

January 10, 2007, 7:30am. No action.

January 9, 2007... 12:47pm .. Transfer SHORT SALE #02 on CAKE to 60-Day Summary list.... 11:46am .. Correct SHORT SALE #2 on CAKE to $26.56 from $26.60..... 11:43am SHORT #2 on CAKE - last $26.60....11:20am ... COVER SHORT on CAKE - last $26.66.... 10.19am ...SHORT Cheesecake Factory Inc,. (CAKE) - last $27.16. After quick run up CAKE finding resistance.

.

... From the 60-Day Summary list

... January 16, 2007, 7:30 am. No action.

January 12, 2007... 3:18pm ... SELL HB Fuller Company (FUL) last $29.74. Originally suggested at $26.85 on 01.10.07. Even though FUL was considered a midterm BUY to trade into the $35 range, the rapid run up requires consolidation. May revisit later. Take profit.

January 11, 2007, 11:21am. SELL Fortune Industries (FFI) - last $5.60.Originally suggested at $4.40 on 12.07.06. Take profit since current earnings posted were disappointing.

January 10, 2007, 7:30M. No action.

January 9, 2007 ...12:12pm ... SELL Scopus Video (SCOP) - last $4.17. Originally suggested at $3.76 on 12.28.06. Lack of trading volume and no follow up with recently announced deal appears likely that lower price are coming.

___________________________________

NET VALUE OF Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund (SFHF) portfolio for the week ending 12.29.06 ....................,....... . $5,164,000.00

REALIZEDGAINS (LOSSES) FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ........................ ......... $277,601.00

REALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio. ...............................$338,049.00

REALIZEDGAINS (LOSSES) FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ...... .......................... $371,020.00

REALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY TO DATE in the SFHF potfolio................. $393,950.00

UNREALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) in the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio.

January 16, 2007, 4:00pm .....92,123.51

January 12, 2007, 4:00pm .. 132,223.40

January 11, 2007, 4:00pm....153,346.68

January 10, 2007, 4:00pm ... 56,298.64

January 9, 2007, 4:00pm .......29,352.88

January 8, 2007, 4:00pm ...... 41,350.75

January 5, 2007, 4:00pm ....... 28,255.02

 

_______________________________________

Prior Dartline summaries ... January 11. 2007 ... S&P 500 index closed at 1,414.85 2.74, with a yesterday's range of 1403.33 to 1415.99. ... Oil prices have fallen by 1/3 since peaking at $78.40 last July and down 9% so far this year. But a closer look suggests a broader decline in commodities so far in '07 as international investment funds liquidate positions on a wholesale basis. The upshot will be lower inflation and a stronger U.S. dollar. In the current "spin" interest rates lost their excuse to stall the stock market. If you wipe the slate clean, what changed? Absolutely nothing. Just another reason to justify why the bulls are still running. From our perspective, it's in "the mirrors" as the commercial speaks. Keep the focus on the action of the S&P 500 index. Above 1,410.00 remains the only indicator to the future direction of the market. Maybe too simple an idea? Do not discount the index. Since July 06 when many "experts" were calling for a major downside correct, the S&P 500 kept confirming underlying strength in equities. Go with the index and sleep at night. Up market should continue and test of 1,425.00 likely.

... January 10, 2007 ... Positive performance traced directly to the strength of the U.S. dollar against major currencies. International markets have decided that the Fed will not lower rates. ....9:42am ... With the S&P 500 index at 1,406.10, the broader market suggests lower prices, especially as volume accelerates. Carefully review your portfolio and eliminate any laggards that may fail expectations going forward or are not considered 'special situations.' ...8:30am ...Even though Wall Street was erratic the S&P 500 index closed at 1,412.11 0.73, but above technical support of 1,410.00. Yet, investors had lost some of their collective exuberance on the belief that with 18 straight quarters of double-digit growth in S&P 500 companies will not last and cause a major collapse in equities. Right now, the technicals suggest the market remains positive. Bond prices edged lower with the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury up to 4.66%, while the dollar was higher against other major currencies. Indeed, lower oil prices have made the dollar and bonds safe bets. Good for equities as sufficient dollars on the sidelines have created a valuable underpinning. However, remain cautious while the S&P 500 index confirms sustained strength above 1,410.00.

... January 9, 207, 12:03pm ... With the S&P 500 index at 1,407.96 5.64, stocks are under distribution as volume increases. A further decline below 1,410 can signal an interim SELL Remain defensive and liquidate marginal positions. Do more selling than buying.... 7:30am ... After Friday's sharp market decline and doubt that the S&P 500 index can maintain support at 1,410.00 (closed at 1,412.84 3.13), yesterday's action was a surprise. Yet, market gains were modest at best and possibly attributed to what the Fed expressed that inflation may not be an issue.At this point, it would prudent to receive further confirmation that 1,410.00 will hold. Step-back today and allow the general market to find its footing.

Prior Best Ideas ...... January 4, 2007 ... Trading range is predictable merely by following the S&P 500 index. Resistance is set at 1,431.81 while support remains constant at 1,410. Any test and breakout in either direction will be how the market will react in the near term. Expect for special situations, devote the time to close out positions with questionable fundamentals and increase cash position while the general market settles in for the long run into '07. No sense being too anxious.

January 9, 2007.. 2:12pm ... BUY Highway Holdings Ltd. ((HIHO) - last $4.88. HIHO manufactures and markets metal, plastic and electric component for top line original equipment based in Hong Kong. Excellent fundamentals, capable management and unique marketing niche has HIHO in a positioned finally being enhanced value to shareholders. The recent acquisition of Golden Bright Plastic represents a critical step to leverage the company's manufacturing capabilities by expanding and integrating related technologies and expertise. Current yearly sales are $27.15 million and should increase by 200% in next 18 months. With a true float of 1.89 million shares HIHO is thinly traders, but should improve as the company's value is recognized. BUY as a "special situation" for midterm move into the $12-$14 range.

January 8, 2007, 2:01pm ... BUY China Health Holding Inc. (CHHH.OB) - last $0.079. CHHH.OB is high risk with the likelihood of total loss of investment if the company cannot execute on its business plan. A development stage company engaging in the acquisition, development and marketing of Chinese medicinal herbal product lines worldwide. Today the company announced acquisition of all assets in Xi'An Meichen Pharmaceutical Company Ltd, which includes a new certified manufacturing facility for 20 million common shares and $1.5 million in US cash. Additionally. letters of intent were previously announced to acquire 51% of four pharmaceutical companies, and various other agreements to accumulate US$100 million in assets within 12 to 24 months, and net income of US$10 million to US$15 million, as recorded on 01.08.07 at 10:08am Et by Xinhua-PRNewswire-FirstCall. Finally, CHHH.OB will be added to China Small-Cap Index sponsored by Ludlow China Fund, Inc., a New York based investment banking firm. On a fully diluted basis, and related projections, and the stated acquisition concluded, the company should have 120 million shares outstanding and earn less than one cent per shares based on the projected net income of $15 million. As stated above CHHH.OB is consider a long term high risk investment with the likelihood of total loss of such investment if the Company is unable to execute its business plan, attract sufficient capital and the necessary technical support to become successful.... 11:45am. SHORT Alcoa Inc.(AA) - last $28.53. While earnings are due after the close tomorrow, AA should surprise on the downside with forward estimates. Since AA is a short term play to 27.00, a technical support established in October '06 would be the COVER PRICE. ... 9:00 am. ... BUY Nu Horizon Electronics Corporation (NUHC) - premarket $9.15. NUHC distributes passive electronic components and related devices, and offers supply chain services, including design and technical assistance, inventory management and logistical support in N. America, Europe, Australia and Asia. With an improving balance sheet, excellent business model and prudent management group, HUHC has the right qualities to warrant midterm commitment. At 8.75 times forward P/E to fiscal '08, NUHC is not fully valued. Suggested BUY at current level with EXIT POINT set at $14.50.

. ... January 4, 2006, 12:30am. BUY Genaera Corporation (GENR) -last $0.29 off $0.11 or 27.50% in after hours trading. After yesterday's close, GENR ended trials of its major drug candidate for the treatment of wet age related macular degeneration and cut its work force by 30 percent. With $37.5 million in cash and limited debt as of September 30th, and other candidates in Phase II clinical trials for the treatment of cancerous solid tumors and to treat overproduction of mucus secretions involving chronic respiratory disease, GENR is not dead yet. Add their various research programs relating to obesity, infectious diseases and inflammatory disorders, such conclusion suggests GENR can be an ideal takeover in the $1.50- -$2.50 range. GENR represents a highly speculative BUY with the risk that an investor's entire commitment may be lost. However, the risk reward ratio appears sufficient for purchase.

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