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January 11, 2007, 7:30am

S&P 500 index closed at 1,414.85 2.74, with a yesterday's range of 1403.33 to 1415.99. ... Oil prices have fallen by 1/3 since peaking at $78.40 last July and down 9% so far this year. But a closer look suggests a broader decline in commodities so far in '07 as international investment funds liquidate positions on a wholesale basis. The upshot will be lower inflation and a stronger U.S. dollar. In the current "spin" interest rates lost their excuse to stall the stock market. If you wipe the slate clean, what changed? Absolutely nothing. Just another reason to justify why the bulls are still running. From our perspective, it's in "the mirrors" as the commercial speaks. Keep the focus on the action of the S&P 500 index. Above 1,410.00 remains the only indicator to the future direction of the market. Maybe too simple an idea? Do not discount the index. Since July 06 when many "experts" were calling fro a major downside correct, the S&P 500 kept confirming underlying strength in equities. Go with the index and sleep at night.

January 10, 2007 ... Positive performance traced directly to the strength of the U.S. dollar against major currencies. International markets have decided that the Fed will not lower rates. ....9:42am ... With the S&P 500 index at 1,406.10, the broader market suggests lower prices, especially as volume accelerates. Carefully review your portfolio and eliminate any laggards that may fail expectations going forward or are not considered 'special situations.' ...8:30am ...Even though Wall Street was erratic the S&P 500 index closed at 1,412.11 0.73, but above technical support of 1,410.00. Yet, investors had lost some of their collective exuberance on the belief that with 18 straight quarters of double-digit growth in S&P 500 companies will not last and cause a major collapse in equities. Right now, the technicals suggest the market remains positive. Bond prices edged lower with the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury up to 4.66%, while the dollar was higher against other major currencies. Indeed, lower oil prices have made the dollar and bonds safe bets. Good for equities as sufficient dollars on the sidelines have created a valuable underpinning. However, remain cautious while the S&P 500 index confirms sustained strength above 1,410.00.

... Purpose of the arrows: - projecting that DJIA, Nasdaq and S&P barometers will close higher at the end of the day. - projected consolidating barometers with limited directional action. - projecting all three barometers declining for the days. .... Our Message Board and "Contact Us" elements are available at no cost to keep you up-to-date with timely information. Our Fantasy Hedge Fund gives you a concise overview of how investment ideas are executed. All transactions are posted on the Message Board

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View From the Bottom - A roundup of the day's performance

January 10, 2007, 4:00 pm. ... Day Trader for the day shows no activity. ... Adjustments to the 60-Day Summary list shows no activity. No realized changes for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio ("SFHF") are posted. Profits in the month to date is $259,950.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses. ... First unrealized loss over $100,000, why? Scottish Re Group (SCT) - last $4.70 - with a position of 250,000 shares , a weighted average price of $5.30 and represents the SFHF's greatest loss at $150,000 or 0.037% of the portfolio as of the close today. Our Message Board contains rolling commentaries why the position is maintained and the reason to add 50,000 shares today at $4.70.

January 9, 2007, 4:00 pm. ... Day Trader for the day shows a gain of $10,000.00. ... Adjustments to the 60-Day Summary list: (1) sold SCOP) for a gain of $25,250.00. Net realized changes for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio ("SFHF") is a gain of $35,250.00 and for the month to date a profit of $259,950.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses.... Total SFHF portfolio gains or losses on current weighted capital of $4,781,309.00, excluding unrealized gains or losses from the inception of the portfolio 10.06.06 to 01.09.07 was a gain of $1,225,479.00 or 0.2675% ***

. Results for the fourth calendar quarter of 2006 on the SFHF portfolio. Total performance, including unrealized gains, was $1,027,724.90 on weighted capital of $4,832,125.72, representing 0.2127%. for the period ending December 31, 2006.

*** based on the weighted portfolio value adjusted daily.

 

 
best idea

January 11, 2007, 7:30am. No Action.

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... January 10, 2007 ... 12:36pm ... BUY Scottish Re Group (SCT) - last $4.70. Buy now to average down as MACD level has improved... 9:35am .. FUL opened at $26.70 ....BUY HB Fuller Company (FUL) - last $26.85. Revisited for the second time, FUL should materially benefit from lower hydrocarbon prices, especially ethylene and benzene which represents over 50% of the company's raw material tied to these derivatives. With the completed sales of its powder coating business, FUL will add $64 to $68 million in pretax income to the fourth quarter. Excluding this special gain, earnings for the quarter ending November '06 should be $0.465 vs $0.400 from a year ago, while the average analyst estimates for the company's '07 earnings is $1.61 per share. At 16 times forward P/E, FUL is under priced versus its competitors. On a technical basis, FUL is striking distance from its 52-week high of $28.25 and breakout to the $34-$36 range, BUY as midterm value play. No EXIT POINT determined.

Ticker
Last Trade
Direction
Entrance Point
Exit Point
FUL
January 10, 2007
$26.85
*


P/E Ratio: 20
Forward P/E Ratio: 16
Float Shares2: 58.45 M
Company Guidance: *
Recommendation3: JP Morgan upgrade to overweight / KeyBanc Capital Mkts/McDonald initiated to buy
Support4: 26.75
Resistance5:

28.25

Under Accumulation6: yes
Under Distribution7: limited

 
today's action

... DAY TRADER

... January 11, 2007, 7:30am. No action.

January 10, 2007, 7:30am. No action.

January 9, 2007... 12:47pm .. Transfer SHORT SALE #02 on CAKE to 60-Day Summary list.... 11:46am .. Correct SHORT SALE #2 on CAKE to $26.56 from $26.60..... 11:43am SHORT #2 on CAKE - last $26.60....11:20am ... COVER SHORT on CAKE - last $26.66.... 10.19am ...SHORT Cheesecake Factory Inc,. (CAKE) - last $27.16. After quick run up CAKE finding resistance.

.

... From the 60-Day Summary list

... January 11, 2007, 7:30am. No action.

January 10, 2007, 7:30M. No action.

January 9, 2007 ...12:12pm ... SELL Scopus Video (SCOP) - last $4.17. Originally suggested at $3.76 on 12.28.06. Lack of trading volume and no follow up with recently announced deal appears likely that lower price are coming.

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NET VALUE OF Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund (SFHF) portfolio for the week ending 12.29.06 ....................,....... . $5,164,000.00

REALIZEDGAINS (LOSSES) FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ........................ ......... $277,601.00

REALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio. ...............................$338,049.00

REALIZEDGAINS (LOSSES) FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ...... .......................... $371,020.00

REALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) FORTHE MONTH OF JANUARY TO DATE in the SFHF potfolio................. $259,950.00

UNREALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) in the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio.

January 10, 2007, 4:00pm ... 56,298.64

January 9, 2007, 4:00pm .......29,352.88

January 8, 2007, 4:00pm ...... 41,350.75

January 5, 2007, 4:00pm ....... 28,255.02

January 4, 2007, 4:00pm ........ 27,589.96

January 3, 2007, 4:00pm ....... 10,763.98

 

Prior Dartline summaries ... January 9, 207, 12:03pm ... With the S&P 500 index at 1,407.96 5.64, stocks are under distribution as volume increases. A further decline below 1,410 can signal an interim SELL Remain defensive and liquidate marginal positions. Do more selling than buying.... 7:30am ... After Friday's sharp market decline and doubt that the S&P 500 index can maintain support at 1,410.00 (closed at 1,412.84 3.13), yesterday's action was a surprise. Yet, market gains were modest at best and possibly attributed to what the Fed expressed that inflation may not be an issue.At this point, it would prudent to receive further confirmation that 1,410.00 will hold. Step-back today and allow the general market to find its footing.

January 8, 2007, 2:34pm . Technical support held with S&P at 1,412.73 and signaled higher equity prices. 7:30am ... Usually the early days of January set the tone for the year and the market's action during the first week has disheartened most investors. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 0.61 percent to close at 1,409.71, with Friday's range of 1405.75 to 1418.34. The disturbing note is the small decline below 1,410.00, representing a major breakdown of technical support. Because of that event it is suggested that caution should be exercised until a clearer indication shows. As reported in Stocksmirf's 7 Prediction for '07, the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25% for the entire year, while "hinting" to raise rates to insure the U.S. dollar doesn't collapse. Understanding the Fed's hidden agenda will serve you well during the year and prevent the current confusing to play on your mind and cloud your investment decisions. Right now investors are trying to understand the dynamics between a slowing economy with their hopes that it the economy doesn't cool too quickly, yet remains firm enough not to contract into a recession. Indeed, Wall Street wants growth to slow to force inflation lower and therefore draw the Fed into lowering short-term rates. Wishful and misplaced thinking for '07. Furthermore such a condition would not cause stocks to rise, but instead create a major imbalance in currency inflows into the U.S. which would set off a vicious cycle of inflation because the dollar would decline further in value against other major currencies. For now, the ramifications of projected Fed actions will keep the equity markets influx. .... Economic data for the week will definitely add further perplexity. Today the Fed will release its consumer credit report for November. No major concern since the volatile readings of consumer debt doesn't usually effect the equity market during the first calendar quarter. On Tuesday, the International Council of Shopping Centers, a trade group, will issue weekly chain-store sales. This number will be weak and hurt many retail issues. Weekly crude inventory data is due on Wednesday. Oil prices have fallen sharply since the start of the year as unseasonably high temperatures hurt demand for home heating oil. No concern here since crude oil prices should not decline further. However, the important report for Wednesday will be the Commerce Department's announcement on the November trade deficit. The international community will watch closely to project whether the U.S. dollar will firm or work lower. Thursday will offer jobless claims - an important report since last week, the equity market declined on a jobs report that showed hiring in December and that unemployment remained near a five-year low. Wall Street was concerned that a scarcity of workers would make the Fed less likely to lower interest rates. The central bank, which remains vigilant about inflation, cannot afford to lower rates. By Friday, Wall Street would be so confused the expected Commerce Department figures on import and export prices for December should give further evidence that the economy is stronger that most want to believe. Since the data help illustrate what consumers pay for foreign goods, which illustrates that if the dollar remains firm, buying power for imports goods improve. Like giant shinning wheel, the engine that keeps it going is the dollar. To conclude: The stronger the dollar the less risk of declining equities.

Prior Best Ideas ...... January 4, 2007 ... Trading range is predictable merely by following the S&P 500 index. Resistance is set at 1,431.81 while support remains constant at 1,410. Any test and breakout in either direction will be how the market will react in the near term. Expect for special situations, devote the time to close out positions with questionable fundamentals and increase cash position while the general market settles in for the long run into '07. No sense being too anxious.

January 9, 2007.. 2:12pm ... BUY Highway Holdings Ltd. ((HIHO) - last $4.88. HIHO manufactures and markets metal, plastic and electric component for top line original equipment based in Hong Kong. Excellent fundamentals, capable management and unique marketing niche has HIHO in a positioned finally being enhanced value to shareholders. The recent acquisition of Golden Bright Plastic represents a critical step to leverage the company's manufacturing capabilities by expanding and integrating related technologies and expertise. Current yearly sales are $27.15 million and should increase by 200% in next 18 months. With a true float of 1.89 million shares HIHO is thinly traders, but should improve as the company's value is recognized. BUY as a "special situation" for midterm move into the $12-$14 range.

January 8, 2007, 2:01pm ... BUY China Health Holding Inc. (CHHH.OB) - last $0.079. CHHH.OB is high risk with the likelihood of total loss of investment if the company cannot execute on its business plan. A development stage company engaging in the acquisition, development and marketing of Chinese medicinal herbal product lines worldwide. Today the company announced acquisition of all assets in Xi'An Meichen Pharmaceutical Company Ltd, which includes a new certified manufacturing facility for 20 million common shares and $1.5 million in US cash. Additionally. letters of intent were previously announced to acquire 51% of four pharmaceutical companies, and various other agreements to accumulate US$100 million in assets within 12 to 24 months, and net income of US$10 million to US$15 million, as recorded on 01.08.07 at 10:08am Et by Xinhua-PRNewswire-FirstCall. Finally, CHHH.OB will be added to China Small-Cap Index sponsored by Ludlow China Fund, Inc., a New York based investment banking firm. On a fully diluted basis, and related projections, and the stated acquisition concluded, the company should have 120 million shares outstanding and earn less than one cent per shares based on the projected net income of $15 million. As stated above CHHH.OB is consider a long term high risk investment with the likelihood of total loss of such investment if the Company is unable to execute its business plan, attract sufficient capital and the necessary technical support to become successful.... 11:45am. SHORT Alcoa Inc.(AA) - last $28.53. While earnings are due after the close tomorrow, AA should surprise on the downside with forward estimates. Since AA is a short term play to 27.00, a technical support established in October '06 would be the COVER PRICE. ... 9:00 am. ... BUY Nu Horizon Electronics Corporation (NUHC) - premarket $9.15. NUHC distributes passive electronic components and related devices, and offers supply chain services, including design and technical assistance, inventory management and logistical support in N. America, Europe, Australia and Asia. With an improving balance sheet, excellent business model and prudent management group, HUHC has the right qualities to warrant midterm commitment. At 8.75 times forward P/E to fiscal '08, NUHC is not fully valued. Suggested BUY at current level with EXIT POINT set at $14.50.

. ... January 4, 2006, 12:30am. BUY Genaera Corporation (GENR) -last $0.29 off $0.11 or 27.50% in after hours trading. After yesterday's close, GENR ended trials of its major drug candidate for the treatment of wet age related macular degeneration and cut its work force by 30 percent. With $37.5 million in cash and limited debt as of September 30th, and other candidates in Phase II clinical trials for the treatment of cancerous solid tumors and to treat overproduction of mucus secretions involving chronic respiratory disease, GENR is not dead yet. Add their various research programs relating to obesity, infectious diseases and inflammatory disorders, such conclusion suggests GENR can be an ideal takeover in the $1.50- -$2.50 range. GENR represents a highly speculative BUY with the risk that an investor's entire commitment may be lost. However, the risk reward ratio appears sufficient for purchase.

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