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| Dartline™ |
represents immediate change - scroll down.
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January 1, 2007 - Stocksmirf's 7 Predictions for '07. (1) The Standard & Poor's 500 index will fluctuate from 1,364.21 to 1,875.94 and end the year at 1,703.71 for a gain of 285.41 points or 0.201%. (2) Crude oil futures will trade between $64.50 to $81.10 per barrel and close the year at $75.77. (3) 10-year Treasury note will have a 52-week range of 4.349% to 5.872% and close at 4.79% (4) Federal Reserve Board will maintain interest rates at 5.25%. (5) European Central Bank will hike interest rates in the first and third quarters as the euro increases 12% against the U.S. dollar. The euro will replace the U.S. dollar as the world's currency of choice. (6) Gold trading in London will close '07 at US$785.00 per troy ounce. (7) Status quo in Iraq with the cost above $1 trillion dollars as the U.S. commits more troops to protect Iraq's vast oilfields.
Greeting! May the new year bring you the best. Let us remember: The world is divided into people who do things - and people who get the credit. Which one are you? As for advice - Never eat at a place called Mom's; Never play cards with a man named Doc; Never ever seek advice from a person who's got more trouble than you.
For our friends who need good advice and desire success in the stock market for '07, I say, "Professionals built the Titanic, amateurs built the ark. "Allow Beat the Dart be your ark."
December 29, 2006, 8:30am ... At 1,424.73 the S&P 500 index 2.11 remains within the positive range to expect higher prices. Yet, a critical factor to derail the bullish underpinning is the continual weakness of the U.S. dollar and the main culprit to runaway inflation. More on the issue can be review on the Message Board under the Dart Bin - What's your take on the weak dollar... ? The dollar bought 1.2221 Swiss francs, down from 2.2256 late Wednesday, and 1.11607 Canadian dollars, down from 1.1611. For the moment all is well in Stockville as the Conference Board said that its Consumer Confidence Index rose to 109.0 in December, up from a revised 105.3 in November and higher than analyst' expectations of about 102.5. ... Again, let's hear the tape: Sell stocks that are performing poorly on a technical basis, stay vigilant to forward earnings projections, and take profits when short term advances created overbought conditions.
... Purpose of the arrows:  - projecting that DJIA, Nasdaq and S&P barometers will close higher at the end of the day.  - projected consolidating barometers with limited directional action.  - projecting all three barometers declining for the days. .... Our Message Board and "Contact Us" elements are available at no cost to keep you up-to-date with timely information. Our Fantasy Hedge Fund gives you a concise overview of how investment ideas are executed. All transactions are posted on the Message Board. ... Effective 12.18.06, the Message Board will no longer carry confirmations of posted suggestions and investment idea as a means to place "time sensitive" commentaries at the point on entry under Best Idea, Day Trade or 60-Day Summary list. In this manner, a more precise notice can be offered and improve the decision making process of our members and viewers. Furthermore, if a detail analysis is requested after the fact, merely post your question on the Message Board and an overview will be presented after the close.
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Prior Dartline summaries . December 28, 2006, 8:30am ..Window dress and a record Dow closing at 12,510.57 is all she wrote. Not bad and more to come providing the technicals hold. The Standard & Poor's 500 index at 1,426.84 9.94 remains our safety. As it stands, the S&P is up 14.3 percent so far this year. Support is set at 1,410 and represents an important Dartmarker to set your sights on. ... A major factor for yesterday's run-up was the Commerce Department's report that sales of new single-family home rose 3.4 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.047 million units. The result was better than the 1.1 percent gain economists expected. Whether it is truly a bottom must be confirmed going forward. Indeed, housing has been one the economy's standout performers, but battered this year as interest rates were rising in the spring and potential buyers began to balk at paying prices which had surged to record levels reflecting five boom years for sales. Don't take the CD report to the bank just yet. The housing slowdown has had a material impact on the overall economy, reducing 1.2 percent from growth in the July-September period and probably an equal amount in the current quarter. Fear still remains that a bust of the real estate bubble might have a similar effect as the collapse of the stock market bubble did in 2001, and restraining consumer spending to create a recession. ... For now, be focused on the technical underpinning of the broader market as represented by the S&P, the direction of U.S. dollar, price of oil and level of inflation. Use the current exuberance to reduce non-performing stocks, and allocate liquidated proceeds to strengthening your portfolio with companies declaring robust guidance.
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From the Bottom - A roundup of the day's performance |
December 29, 2006, 4:00pm. ... Day Trader transactions for the day is a gain of $45,800.00 from CPSL even though the trade was a midterm buy and change to a day trade because of rapid price appreciation. ... Adjustments to the 60-Day Summary list, which does not include Day Trader's activities are: (1) short cover on RHT for a loss of $18,100.00; (2) sold entire position of MPEL for a net gain of $14,000.00. Net realized changes for the day in Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio ("SFHF") is a gain of $41,700.00 and for the month to date a profit of $371,020.00.. Results for the fourth calendar quarter of 2006 on the SFHF portfolio. Total performance, including unrealized gains, was $1,027,724.90 on weighted capital of $4,832,125.72, representing 0.2127%. for the period ending December 31, 2006.
December 27, 2006, 4:20pm ... Why not average down on Bio-Reference Labs like you usually do when a stock goes the wrong way after posting?*** ... If a stock presents certain issues to suggest long or short classification, and the market goes contra to the projection, the underlying values do not change, and therefore adding to the position makes sense. As for BRLI, it was originally offered long at $25.20 on 12.15.06 and again at $23.53 on 12.19.06. Today, BRLI was $1.04 to close at $23.00. When posted on the 15th, it was based on superior earnings and guidance, but BRLI declined. Thus, a further long was suggested, only to find the stock fall again. Even though BRLI had value, it was prudent to step-back and access the decisions, and allow whatever level of liquidation to concluded. Indeed, the run-up today was not anticipated. Such event is not new, but to remain vigilant, a third undertaking on the long side was not justified since the original reason for the decline was still unknown. As a midterm buy, BRLI has value and in time the position would prove profitable.
December 22, 2006, 4:00pm ... Why carry a huge short position loss in Pozen Inc.?... As you may have determined SFHF is carrying an abnormally large unrealized loss, which most of it is connected with the 100,000 share short position in Pozen Inc. (PZN). The average cost is $16.55 while POZN closed at $17.71, representing a loss of $116,400.00. The POZN short position was accumulated on the strong possibility that the FDA will require new clinical trials for its proposed medication Trexima before approval to market. Glaxo SmithKline, the co-development partner and recognized to be a savvy drug firm, had walked away from Trexima and suggests the uphill fight to cut losses and the approval process for Trexima may take years. If new data is required for FDA approval, the only means will be with new trials. Such a scenario would drop POZN to the $ 9 range. Naturally, the risks are plausible if approval is given, yet the likelihood appears less than probable.
*** from the e-mail bag.
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... December 29, 2006
... 3:57pm ... BUY #2 on CPSL - last $10.75 .
... 2:41pm. SELL CPSL - last $13.55 . Not a usual decision, but taking profits is good when the pick runs -up with limited volume. Time to sell.
.... 1:06pm .. BUY China Precision Steel Inc. (CPSL) - last $11.28. After a reverse takeover of OraLabs Holding and with new and experienced senior management, CPSL has been restructured for rapid growth. Trading was commenced today, opening at $5.62 and up 111.91%, CPSL will be very volatile and is only suggested as a high risk play. With 26 million shares outstanding and presence in precision steel processing, CPSL operates in China and intends to expand into Japan, Taiwan, Korea and Europe. To further state our standing caveat: Consult with your investment professional before buying CPSL
11:23am ... BUY Scottish Re Group (SCT) - last $5.26 . Tax selling has created downside pressure and placed SCT within long term support. Insider buying is of interest. Suggested at $6.97 on 11.20.06; $5.60 on 11.27.06 and $4.46 on 12.11.06. Dollar averaging down is usually an unorthodox strategy, but in that instant, SCT represents value when considering the underlying status of the investment.
December 28, 2006.... 10:59am ... BUY NCST add to position. Last $4.86. ...10.41am ...BUY Matrix Services Company (MTRX) - last $16.39 . MTRX provides construction and related services to the downstream petroleum and power industries. At 20 times forward P/E, excellent fundamentals and business pan to insure continual earnings growth, the company is well positioned to be a long term core holding for '07. On a midterm bias, MTRX should surprise earnings estimate for the November ending quarter. Initially considered as a short term BUY with EXIT POINT at $21.00... 9:32am ... CHINA opened at $8.70.... 9:03am ... BUY CDC Corporation (CHINA) - last $8.39 . CHINA offers software, mobile applications and online services to 40000 accounts worldwide. Selling at 20 times forward earnings, excellent management and expanding product line, the company offers superior midterm value. EXIT POINT at $14.50.
December 27, 2006... 10:09am ... BUY Aeterna Zentaris (AEZS) - last $4.01. Distribution of Atrium Biotech. 0.2079 shares for each AEZS with record date 12.29.06 is worth $2.00 by itself. With the morning's sell off, AEZS is cheap.
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.. December 29, 2006, 8:30am. No action.
December 28,2006... 2.37pm ... BUY Scopus Video Networks (SCOP) - last $3.76 . A provider of digital video networking products, SCOP has continued to make significant progress in India as new regulations require upgrade to existing systems, combined with new wins in U.S. market, including Cass Cable TV contract, SCOP can support a higher stock value. With $2.45 in cash per share, and management's desire to expand the product base, SCOP can provide material earnings improvement. However, on November 2nd the company reported an operating loss excluding stock based compensation expenses of $875 thousand or $0.07 per share, and expects the same net loss for the fourth quarter. SCOP is considered a midterm speculative BUY as a value play on earnings improvements based on current and projected business prospects. . No EXIT POINT determined.
Ticker |
Last
Trade |
Direction |
Entrance
Point |
Exit
Point |
| SCOP |
December 28, 2006 |
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$3.76 |
* |
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| P/E Ratio: |
* |
| Forward P/E Ratio: |
* |
| Float Shares2: |
11.16 M |
| Company Guidance: |
* |
| Recommendation3: |
* |
| Support4: |
3.05 |
| Resistance5: |
8.35
|
| Under Accumulation6: |
limited |
| Under Distribution7: |
limited |
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... DAY TRADER
... December 29, 2006, 8:30am. No action.
December 28, 2006, 8:30am. No action.
December 27, 2006... 1:59pm .. SELL ENTER POSITION on ESCL - last $7.80 .. Not working, under downside pressure. Take loss... 1:45pm ... BUY #2 on ESCL - last $7.86 . Dollar averaging down... 1:26pm ... SELL NVDA - last $37.57 . Failed to respond to up volume... 9:49am ... BUY Escala Group Inc. (ESCL) - last $8.55. Interesting buying patterns suggest higher values.... 9:39am ...BUY Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) - last $37.54. Under accumulation to test $38.50.
... From the 60-Day Summary list
..December 29, 2006
... 3:00pm ... COVER SHORT on Red Hat Inc. (RHT) - last $23.02 . Take loss. Chart pattern points to further gains while the decision to maintain the position was miscalculated.
... 10:13am ... SELL Melco PBL Entertainment (MPEL) - last $21.40 . Take profit with intent to re-visit later.
December 28, 2006 ... 3:21pm ... SELL On Assignment Inc. (ASGN) - last $12.04. Originally suggested 12.21.06 at $11.04. Take profit.
December 27, 2006... 10:47am ... SELL Foxhollow Tech. (FOXH) - last $22.04 Originally suggested at $21.19 on 12.20.06. Take profit.... 10:20am ... SELL Chipotle Mex. Grill (CMG) - last $56.28 . Originally suggested at $55.14 on 12.22.06. Take profit based on abnormal trading pattern and inability to break from upside resistance.
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NET VALUE OF Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund (SFHF) portfolio for the week ending 12.29.06 ....................,....... . $5,164,000.00
REALIZED GAINS ( LOSSES) FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio ........................ ......... $277,601.00
REALIZED GAINS ( LOSSES) FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER '06 in the SFHF portfolio. ............................... $338,049.00
REALIZED GAINS ( LOSSES) FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER '06 TO DATE in the SFHF portfolio .................. $371,020.00
REALIZED GAINS ( LOSSES) FOR THE CURRENT WEEK TO DATE in the SFHF portfolio. ................... $100,700.00
UNREALIZED GAINS (LOSSES) in the Stocksmirf Fantasy Hedge Fund portfolio. 
December 29, 2006, 4:00pm ... 41,054.97
December 28, 2006, 4:00pm .. $24,150.00
December 27, 2006, 400pm .... 63,800.01
December 26, 2006, 4:00pm ... 97,639.00
December 22, 2006, 4:00pm ... 154,899.97
December 21.006, 4:00pm .... 110,119.96
December 20, 2006, 4:00pm .... 93,267.97
December 19, 2006, 4:00pm ..... 55,300.01
December 18, 2006, 4:00pm ..... 01,795.03
December 15, 2006, 4:00pm .... 25,740.01
December 14, 2006, 4:00pm .... 99,164.01
December 13, 2006, 4:00pm .. 136,899.98
December 12, 2006, 4:00pm ..... 03,700.00
December 11, 2006, 4:00pm .... 64,200.00
.......Note:
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EFFECTIVE
10.30.06 DAY
TRADER WILL BE LAUNCHED TO TARGET ONE STOCK TO PLAY DURING
THE DAY AND CLOSED OUT BEFORE 4:00pm. The intent is to
suggest ideas that have a likelihood, either to advance
or decline, depending it you're going long or short.
Naturally, day trading should only be considered by individuals
with an in depth language of the securities market, and
understands experience and timing dynamics are intransigent
parts of the same formula. As Mark Twain said, "We
should be careful to get out of an experience only the
wisdom that is in it - and stop there; lest we be like
the cat that sits down on a hot stove. The cat will never
sit down on a hot stove again - and that is well; but
also the cat will never sit down on a cold one any more."...
Practice by using phantom trades until you have the experience
to go live. This way you'll learn first hand if you posses
that special "hook" to be a successful day
trader.
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